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  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    No animosity...sorry you take it that way...just verbal banter,,,have a great weekend...
    Apr 24, 2015. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    "40% of households under 35 years of age have student debt'

    Or you could say 60% of households under 35 have no student debt...or
    12 million households between the ages of 25-34 with no student debt

    4 million households between the ages of 25-34 make over $100,000 a year...
    Apr 24, 2015. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    A new record for the S&P 500...barely...still not the bull market top....
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    You take an aggregate student loan number and make the big leap that prospective home
    buyers have the same burden...this is incorrect...

    here is another link...

    http://brook.gs/1I4NFkO

    http://tpc.io/1I4OsCl
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    "According to RealtyTrac, 35% of all homeowers still have "effective negative equity" in their homes."

    How can that be when a 1/3 of the homeowners don't even have a mortgage?...So you are saying over Half of the people with a mortgage are underwater?

    CoreLogic Aoril 3 2015...

    "according to CoreLogic's data, about one in 10 mortgaged homes were underwater."

    http://bit.ly/1zUA6NT
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable goods orders increase way beyond expectations [View news story]
    Durable Goods is a very noisy number...I ignore it on the upside and the downside....there are better numbers to track....
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    6.5 million Households between the ages of 35-44 make over $100,000 a year

    1.5 million Households between the ages of 35-44 make over $200,000 a year...

    The # of employed 35-44 age group hit a 22 year low in August 2011...and have
    been steadily growing ever since....the feeder group of employed 25-34 years olds
    are rapidly growing...Before someone mentions Student loans...

    % of Households ages 35-44 with student debt....26%....even less for the upper income households 35-44

    "A small share of borrowers carry exceptionally high
    balances, but most carry relatively low levels of debt. As
    of 2010, about 25 percent of borrowers owed less than
    $6,200 and three quarters owed less than $30,000. At
    the high end, 5 percent of borrowers owed $92,800 or
    more, likely either parents financing multiple educations
    or professional students in law, medicine, or business
    borrowing under the PLUS program."

    http://www.brookings.edu~/media/research/f...
    Apr 24, 2015. 06:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Dead Or Hibernating? [View article]
    YoY % growth in Nonfarm payroll jobs Florida 3.67%
    California 3.11%
    Texas 2.88%

    Florida for years saw a faster nonfarm payroll growth pace than Texas until early 2006. This sub performance lasted until early 2014 when Florida finally had a faster % payroll growth pace than Texas.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Dead Or Hibernating? [View article]
    Florida has made a comeback...the March Nonfarm payroll number for Florida is now
    over 8 million...for the first time since June 2007....Florida has added 501,000 nonfarm payroll jobs over the last 2 years...the year over year % change is 3.67%
    the fastest yoy % pace since March 2006
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales see a sharp decline in March [View news story]
    Excellent..on same page...actually I think the peak for this cycle could be around the 800,000 to 900,000 range just enough to have too many completed new homes available...not even remotely close to 1.389 million
    done in July 2005
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales see a sharp decline in March [View news story]
    Galt...

    The profile of the new home buyer is not the one cited with a student loans and no net worth. There are only 53,000 completed homes
    currently for sale. Now I will grant you the covenant is broken and there is no hurry to buy a new home like there was before..but a pickup to a SAAR rate
    of 700,000 (50 year avg.660,000) is not out of the order. Anecdotally speaking a realtor told me this
    bunch tends toward the new not a fixer upper. You seem to be fixated on the last war. I do not expect to see the old days of 2005-2006 but i sure don't expect the days of 2008-2010...
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PulteGroup earnings, soft new home sales lead homebuilders lower [View news story]
    Despite the March decline in New Homes Sold in the South the 6 month moving average
    of New Homes Sold in the South makes a 78 month high....
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales see a sharp decline in March [View news story]
    % of Households ages 35-44 with student debt....26%....even less for the upper income households 35-44

    "A small share of borrowers carry exceptionally high
    balances, but most carry relatively low levels of debt. As
    of 2010, about 25 percent of borrowers owed less than
    $6,200 and three quarters owed less than $30,000. At
    the high end, 5 percent of borrowers owed $92,800 or
    more, likely either parents financing multiple educations
    or professional students in law, medicine, or business
    borrowing under the PLUS program."

    http://www.brookings.edu~/media/research/files...
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales see a sharp decline in March [View news story]
    "That's a lot of money for someone starting out to save especially if they have a pile of student debt."

    People buying new homes are not starters...
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales see a sharp decline in March [View news story]
    The New Homes Sold to Employed 35-44 Yrs Old ratio is 1.55%. Median Age of New Home Buyer is 38.

    This ratio was 1.3% a year ago ....1.44% 2 years ago....the 30 year average is 2.17%

    The cyclical highs for this ratio in the last 3 business cycles was 3.46% March 1986
    2.74% November 1998
    4.00% July 2005

    The all time low for this series ( 52 year history) was February 2011 at .89%

    Long term note: The feeder group for the Employed 35 -44 yrs old is the 25 to 34 age group . The 25-34 age group 5 year rate
    of change is growing at its fastest pace in over 24 years....The 35-44 age group peaked in size in November
    1999 and bottomed in size in August 2011....

    Of 35-44 age group 6.5 million households make over $100,000...1.5 million make over $200,000
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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