moron

Costco Has All the Right Catalysts in Place

Agree - ran a very strict technical bull screen last week that rarely every returns anything and out popped Costco - after looking at everything I was shocked by the confluence of bullish signals. Bought before breakout past 50.

The S&P 500: Fibonnaci vs. the Kool-Aid Man

FB5000 - what happens when improvement stalls/flatlines for several quarters. You think the market will react well to a lack of improvement, improvement that has already been priced in? I don't.

That said, I am not a trend fighter, I go with the flow until I see signs of a reversal, which right now, I don't. That said, any slippage or failure to breakthrough Fibonacci will result in a reversal, although I would argue how strong that reversal would be without any negative catalysts (which are hard to find until possibly Q4).

Deutsche Bank's Ackerman Forecasts Trouble Ahead

Now this I can respect.

CNBC Viewership Down 28%

Hopefully this trend continues...

Wells Fargo: Don't Take Earnings at Face Value

JCC - going along with your idol would have served you well the past year I suppose...

He flipped, flopped and floundered so much from May to July that I lost much respect for him, although I was glad to here someone that investors (for better or worse) listen to state just what dire straits the economy is in and will continue to be in despite another irrational rally.

At the same time I do think that WFC will survive this crisis; however, they will be hit hard just like everyone else before the dust settles--the only difference is they will not crumble under the pressure.

Earnings Preview: Citigroup

It won't be pretty.

Mid-Year 2009 Recap: What's Ahead

Very interesting summary Karl -

I too have been short since the mid 900s - Any thoughts on where this dip may stop (I too do not think it is the "big one" although I am convinced that is on its way this fall). I am seeing resistance at the 875-880 range; however, the next two weeks of earnings reports, especially next week, could through a wrench into that and this could turn into an avalanche. I don't expect this to happen given the twisted way the banks can report; however, anything other than a marked improvement from Q1 could spell trouble.

7% for Overnight Money? Someone Is in Trouble

Let me preface this by saying I am still quite bearish -- especially on financials, and I always enjoy your articles Karl, but random guy you make an interesting point. Karl, any thoughts on this?

U.S. “mass lay-offs” at RECORD high

Jeff,

I have come to this realization gradually over the past 2-3 years which saddens me greatly because I am only 23, fresh out of college, and hiding in the sheltered world of graduate school. Unfortunately, I think our country is in a thoroughly unfixable situation. Can we really dissolve the two political parties? I don't think so. Would I like to, yes. It is necessary, yes. Is it going to happen? Absolutely not.

So, I am left banging my head against things and contemplating moving North. We have allowed our government to lie to us for so long that they have become so powerful that the people in our country will blindly accept the most obvious fabrications (e.g. unemployment figures) even among the well-educated. It is distressing, depressing, and most of all, enraging.

But the Recession Is Over!

spot on as usual

The Distressing news about “Distressed” U.S. properties

I second both of you - great article Jeff.

Distilling The Economic Data – No Recovery News

Very thorough article Steven - much appreciated. I think it should be pointed out that the "plummet" in continuing claims is running along nicely with the worst of initial claims from mid-December to mid-January, coincident with the expiration of 26-week benefits in many states. Would not be surprised to be at all to see a bit more of a decline over the next month in that stat only to see it start to go back in the other direction - much to the surprise of those still tossing their money blindly into this market. Just a thought.

Beige Book Blues

Excellent article. I wouldn't be surprised the see this market hold on to the rally for a few more months simply because of spin from the media and outright manufactured government statistics as Jeff has touched on numerous times.

That said, I don't see how the market can hold on through the fall towards the end of the year. You can only hide from reality for so long - the entire "recovery" is based on economic growth. What happens when growth does not come?

The financials are not in a fundamentally better position than they were this time last year (the only difference is some degree of confidence has inexplicably been restored) when they were being bought up. In fact, we had all of the information on the financials this time last year that we do now, and it has not changed. In fact, it may have gotten worse with the foreclosure crisis steaming full ahead. Just wait for the early winter moths when the prime mortgage crisis will fully manifest itself.

At this point I will have absolutely no sympathy for anyone who loses their shirt in the next 6-12 months because of buying into the market.

I can't wait for the rally tomorrow when the market overreacts to consumer confidence (in fact, any reaction is an overreaction since it has been shown time and time again that this is a useless statistic).

Initial Jobless Claims: 601,000 vs. last week's 625,000 (revised) and consensus of 625,000. Continuing claims reach a record high, rising 59K to 6.82M.

I guess the celebration about the drop is continuing claims last week was shortlived...

Consumer confidence rose in June, climbing to its highest reading since November 2008. At 50.8, the confidence index is 5.2 points above its 12-month average and just 0.5 points below its all-time average of 51.3.

There is not a more worthless economic figure than consumer confidence.