highwaytoserfdom

Memo to AT&T: Help Me to Help You

Yea these two warrant-less wire tap guys I feel safer with noodle dunking Spitzer out of office and slimy Grasso get away with what a hundred and eighty million? I would not use either one of these guys even if they gave Spitzerized torture.

Why Dick Bove Is Wrong About Citigroup

The issue is sector rotation and the moral hazard of 41% of all profits in the usury sector. The problem with the FED and the bank is the mal investment. We wasted a generation of talent in hedge funds, investment (Ha Ha) banks, and plywood ponzi fiance and building sectors. The diversion served no one except the hidden tax system propagating immoral empire, and police system..

Housing Can Indeed Be a Good Investment

All real estate is local the 20007 US census gives the household income as these numbers. These were 2007 numbers so with 10% to 17% (U6) unemployment these are in all likelihood 5 t0 10 % high.
Meaning the average house should cost 127,000 Philadelphia 172,000 PA.. (4x income) All things being equal but as we know they are not the foreclosure rate municipal job cuts, tax pressure+... Prices really have not corrected yet.
Philadelphia PA
Median household income, 2007 $35,431 $48,562

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

The Black Swan is the wrong Black. It is the Black–Scholes model practiced by not bounding the asset price with anything real like cash flow or income... That is the Black Swan event... Call it what you want I prefer to call it a usury ponzi scheme government use to hide there policy mistakes.. The fact that 41% of profits are from sinecurist financial sector says it all... Now what policies to hold the MBS market up, or keep the debt ponzi in education system intact? Your half right.

How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers

Housing is a prime example of Cap and Tax plain and simple. Sector rotation is needed. A number of years ago there was an article which stated that John Templeton and Buffet warned that derivatives had housing overpriced by a factor of ten. Now I am rather simple and look at things in an income/cash flow basis. Now with the household numbers on income are census based and very unreliable and very lagging. If you model for unemployment and factor average price for say 4 times income you begin to see the trouble. The September housing propaganda and reporting the omission was that prices dropped 8.5% YOY making the average house $179,900. This means that 8000 dollar credit which accounted for a great deal of the market was lost now the January low of $164,000 was boosted by cash for plywood ponzi.. The real shame is sinecurist economy of banks, realtors, lawyers, sheriffs, inspectors wasting time in a non income producing sector. We have lost a generation of talent of skilled workers at a cost of losing the creative talent to other countries.. A skilled MIT graduate working on a hedge fund data base? Heck you have guys getting Noble prizes on pricing models that defy the boundary limits of physical reality.. We can complain but sector rotation is what is needed. Too bad the government is not willing to cut spending on sinecurist sectors... I just don't get it $250,00 for job creation for what more teachers and government workers? I am also optimistic in the talent and moral responsibility of free markets.. They will work and the hope is the old boys don't get desperate and add the Keynesian and war models of prosperity..

Peter Schiff vs. the Fed

Dodd may end up in jail from sweetheart Countrywide deal... Slime of slime.....


Industry   Total   Indivs   PACs  
Securities & Investment $3,744,028.00 $3,573,828.00 $170,200.00
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,664,523.00 $1,546,748.00 $117,775.00
Insurance $1,187,556.00 $868,250.00 $319,306.00
Real Estate $1,108,771.00 $985,138.00 $123,633.00
Commercial Banks $764,244.00 $653,744.00 $110,500.00
Retired $621,172.00 $621,172.00 $0.00
Lobbyists $462,462.00 $458,462.00 $4,000.00
Misc Finance $395,520.00 $384,020.00 $11,500.00
Accountants $395,400.00 $362,900.00 $32,500.00
TV/Movies/Music $388,620.00 $373,120.00 $15,500.00
Business Services $315,375.00 $311,375.00 $4,000.00
Democratic/Liberal $293,404.00 $287,404.00 $6,000.00
Finance/Credit Companies $265,450.00 $184,750.00 $80,700.00
Health Professionals $248,450.00 $201,300.00 $47,150.00
Defense Aerospace $221,350.00 $206,850.00 $14,500.00
Education $190,266.00 $187,766.00 $2,500.00
Misc Manufacturing & Distributing $181,350.00 $160,350.00 $21,000.00
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $173,400.00 $107,100.00 $66,300.00
Misc Business $164,195.00 $164,195.00 $0.00
Printing & Publishing $118,850.00 $117,850.00 $1,000.00

Housing Data: The Slow Healing Process Has Begun

It is a credit issue more correctly a cash flow issue. Price to income are still not anywhere near historic levels. We have 41% of profits coming from the sinecure financial services. With leveraged profits ponzi we have wasted the talents of a generation.. The math or economics of the securitization failed to bound the equations with income or cash flow limits. If you think that healing has started think about the $8,000 first time credit... That's the down payment for $222,000 FHA 3.5% loan.. Why is housing not exploding? Price is still to high.. Bad policy undermined by bad thinking pushed by a FICO flaws.

Approval Breaking Down For Obama

Where is the change? It seems that anti-Bush was a huge factor. I hope the issues are framed around honest debate over government policies causing the moral hazard in banks, housing instead of the trivial class warfare and race issues. The first amendment press rights are really not being used. The politics should debate Statism vs. Libertarianism not the RNC DNC liberal conservative issues.With 41% of profits coming from financial services and a large portion of health care, government and education are sinecure fiefdoms change is needed.... Policy has implications and free market blow back is a repudiation of Keynesianism.

Goldman Sachs Favors Discretionary Retailers in Wal-Mart Downgrade

The US should downgrade no imprison Goldman and Carlyle. The moral hazard caused by GSE's, FDIC, Rating agencies as government get money from the FED first Traitors blew up a system. With 41% of the profits going to a sector that provides no benefit except in the playing with other peoples money..... Mal-investment... Goldman should not be able to opperate.

The Government Has Played Its Hand Nicely

I don't like to pump news letters but shadowstats is one fine one. CPI, M3,employment, FRB, GDP are calculated and compared to the calculations before the manipulation. Realistic and reasoned site..

Friday's Unemployment Numbers Mark an Inflection Point for Economy

You are nuts? You need to see John Williams shadowstats for a realistic number excluding the changes that the banking and media cartel release.. What kind of moral mindset do you have by writing this article without reading the report? There were 17,000 health care workers added (half government) and 66,000 government workers added. Temporary jobs are at 8.8 million. March was revised up 36,000 and Feb revised up 30,000. This is a big government evil of two lesser political parties report that some how justifies the government created bubble of risk less investments in GSE, (Fannie, Freddie, Sallie) and FDIC. As derivatives bubble blew up 91% of Americans were against the tarp. The government just pumped 190K per person on the planet and fed there buddies through the FED discount window.. The government now has AIG as a boogie man as they paid 100% for CDO's that the discount window paid 80% and open market was priced at 8-20%. Why don't you cut the nonsense and use your first amendment rights to report news instead of statist propaganda. The problem is by not letting the markets correct you will do exactly what FDR did in the thirties. Did you ever hear of the depression on 1920? This warfare (religious, oil, drug) state has created the welfare state (including banking cartel, military industrial, medical and education) of corporate and government fascism. Report the numbers and don't spin.. Morally you are committing treason on humanity.

Beazer Homes: Option Traders Expecting Major Move Higher in Another Homebuilder

Housing prices need to stabilize. The GSE caused crisis we have now, will be like the equity bubble of the dot bombs. The big difference is the dot bombs were never 20% of the economy and the mal -investment and human talent wasted in this and the financial sector that pushed the debt bubble from housing and debt financing is fascism. This GSE regulation and cover up through through the media cartels non reporting on these issues. Housing was cased by non free market cronyism. Why would you place a penny of equity in these guys?

Haven't First-Time Homebuyers Heard of Roubini?

Massachusetts household income is just around 50k. The higher paying jobs are in medical and financial service sectors. The average house should be less than 200k. The banks are being aided by the TARP thefts to hold up asset prices. I've seen 400k condos go for 40k ... Middle innings at best...despite what the NAR and MBA want you to think.. So if you are the average citizen of the Commonwealth with the 8k printed to bail out this unproductive sector if you can find 2400 sq ft houses under 200k then the markets work...My experience we are not even close... Tag this with the jobs and sector rotation Roubini is right.

Banks Are Unwilling to Solve REO Problems

The GSE's (ie Congress) cause the problem by insuring risk implied by government bailout. As recently November 2006 William Poole said

"I believe that supervisory oversight is in pretty good shape, with one glaring exception. Government-sponsored enterprises are not adequately capitalized and the supervisory powers of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OHFEO) are inadequate. I’ll concentrate on the housing GSEs—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This is a topic I’ve addressed several times in the past (Poole, 2003 and 2004) and I’ll not repeat those arguments in any detail here. Although the GSEs are not formally insured by the federal government, the market clearly believes that they are effectively backstopped. As I’ve emphasized before, the Federal Reserve does not have the legal authority to bail out a troubled GSE. The Fed can provide liquidity support through its discount window, but only indirectly through collateralized loans to banks that would then bear the credit risk of making loans to a troubled firm. Under emergency conditions, the Fed does have the authority to make loans directly to a GSE, but the loans must be fully collateralized. The Fed is obviously disinclined to use its emergency powers to lend to firms other than banks; despite numerous financial upsets over the years, the Fed has not used this authority since the 1930s."

Now rather than admit that Congress by usurping their responsibility to the FED, Treasury and executive (PPT or Working Group on Financial Markets ) has created a tremendously unproductive housing and banking sectors. Why should the banks sell? The FED just prints for them..This is the regulations that caused the problem. Shiller attempts to build an index in Irrational exuberance where the index is around 130 and the norm has been after WWII 100. The depression level is around 66...So protecting the banks is crazy... The numbers indicated we are in the middle of this asset bubble. A simple solution would be to take the census household (you might think about women in the workplace) income for the states and force the banks to liquidate REO at around 4 x income. Free markets seek this equalization. So California 4 times would be 200k same as Massachusetts. The politicians have created bad economics as a collection mechanism for education which has squandered the dollars by slipping for first to seventeenth with a 7 to 8% increase YOY for 30 years. Now if you think this is gloomy think look at medical policy... It is government policy supporting warfare mindset on drugs, poverty, nation building, empire preservation that cause the economic misery that led to Stalin, Mao and Hitler. Policies matter and finger pointing at anyone except the policy makers is a perjurer to the Constitution. Sector rotation will happen just hope that good policy (letting the bad sectors fail) not war the policy. If this makes any sense please write you congressman and as a start support HR 1207 to audit the FED.


On Apr 13 03:41 AM sr9web wrote:

> Ostrich syndrome is running amuck

Case-Shiller vs. OFHEO Housing Report: Which is Right?

Government created the housing bubble with GSE issues. The moral hazard of pushing housing as a productive sector caused very bad economic policy. Housing prices adjusted for inflation since 1900 show housing is still way over priced. Think about things that have changed on price to income, you have household income being used, a huge local mandates on education, trade, lack of wealth creation vs paper painting of "other people's money". The Case Shiller inflation adjusted index since 1900 has home prices at around 140.. From 1945 to 1950 the index went from 60 to around 100.. I would expect the index to return to between 100 to 110. The one worry is with the presses roiling inflation may rise and the 1920 to 1940 index of 60 to 80 could be reached. OFHEO has a credibility issue due to the undue influence of the cartel of banking, Realtors, and the government. The free market is powerful despite the rhetoric regulation, tax policy, GSE's (including Sallie) ect caused the bubble. If you think of the economy in terms of sectors it needs a major correction. Medical (half government) housing, legal and law enforcement, all are burdens to world living standards.... Policy maters... as a start support HR 1207....... This crisis was caused by regulation and lack of obeying laws.... Let the free markets work and promote sector rotation out of unproductive sectors.... Make bankers lend to steel mills not condo/consumers...

"The Rothschilds, and that class of money-lenders of whom they are the representatives and agents - men who never think of lending a shilling to their next-door neighbors, for purposes of honest industry, unless upon the most ample security, and at the highest rate of interest - stand ready, at all times, to lend money in unlimited amounts to those robbers and murderers, who call themselves governments, to be expended in shooting down those who do not submit quietly to being robbed and enslaved.'

Lysander Spooner 1870

"No Treason #6" (1870)



On Apr 01 07:17 AM Tom wrote:

> OFHEO and Case Shiller are not looking at the same data set. OFHEO
> contains only conforming mortgages and in some versions includes
> refinancings. Case Shiller includes sub-prime, ALt-A data, so gives
> more emphasis to the wretched excess reflected in those transactions
> toward the end of the housing bubble. Case Shiller gives extra weight
> to higher value transactions.
>
> Case Shiller also gives more weight to recent transactions, so a
> house that was bought on speculation at the top of the bubble and
> quickly foreclosed and sold at a distressed price would have more
> influence than a house that was bought 10 years ago and then sold
> in a normal sale where the seller was under no compusion.
>
> Case Shiller gives an accurate description of the worst of the wretched
> excess in California, but is not accurately descriptive of what is
> happening in the country as a whole. Carl Case has gone public with
> the shortcomings of the index, but the more visible and influential
> Shiller has not done so.
>
> To the extent that Case Shiller influences public and governmental
> perceptions of how the real estate market is functioning, it adds
> to the crisis by exaggerating it.
>
>
>