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Hari Swaminathan

Hari Swaminathan
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  • Skyworks Still Has Upside Potential [View article]
    Great analysis, and explained very well. I follow the Stock, but did not know much about the company itself. Thanks
    May 30, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    But James, your argument that Apple losing market share and has therefore not learned its lessons is flawed. Innovation leaders losing market share is a natural phenomenon in business. Ford and IBM were the firsts in their segments, but their edge (and market share) has been withered away over the decades by competition. There is nothing wrong with this, and is to be expected. You can hardly dismiss IBM away today with $200 Billion in revenues, but by no means it holds the kind of market share it did 5 decades ago. No company can be expected to continually increase market share. Even with reduced market share, I'd be willing to bet that Apple is probably going to be the first trillion-dollar company on earth by market cap at some point.

    I'm not underestimating the addressable market in EMs, in fact your comment supports what I said - the addressable market in these large EMs is no more than 20 to 25% of the population. Which, in the case of China works out to be equivalent to the US market. But it's a stretch to think that 2.5 billion people in India and China is the addressable market in these countries, its just not the case. On average I'd say 15 to 20% of most large EMs like India, Indonesia etc.., with China more at about 25%...
    Sep 14, 2013. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    James,

    You fail to recognize that Apple has learnt from its mistakes of the 80's and 90's about the ecosystem. Microsoft won that battle because companies like Symantec (Norton), Intuit and a thousand others built Apps for the PC. Jobs learnt his lesson from that experience..This is exactly why Jobs focused on the Apps store the day the first IPhone was released in 2007, because he has learnt the importance of "ecosystem" through a very tough lesson.. And clearly today, AAPL is far ahead with the quality and capability of Apps, and the security aspects of it. Granted Android may edge out slightly because of its ubiquitous presence, but they do have major issues, including an un-friendly interface. Personally, I couldn't get myself to put my finger on that Android screen. Maybe a personal bias or the fact that I got my first Iphone, standing in line in the first week of 2007 release, perhaps.

    But you're also mistaken about something in the large emerging markets - China, India, Brazil etc...As we all know, most of these countries population demographic, at least for another generation is roughly broken down like this -

    Top 5 to 10% - very wealthy, ability to afford pretty much all luxury goods..

    Next 10% - IPhone (even without carrier subsidy) - done...no issues in affordability

    Bottom 80% - Cannot afford IPhones, but they also don't belong in the "globally-minded, App-using" crowd..Most of this population is still using the old Nokia dinosaurs, and given a choice, they will use that all their life, because the sophistication of smartphones far exceeds their ability to use them in a meaningful way. They couldn't care less about a "data plan" and will probably never get data in their lifetimes... Granted, this will change over time, but that time is at least a generation away. So what you're considering today as a billions-of-consumers marketplace in these large emerging markets is a fallacy. These billions don't want smartphones, however cheap they may be. And as we know, a generation is a lifetime away. By that time, some wearable gadget or something new will disrupt the mobile phone...and its ecosystem..

    And just to add, just like we have a vast and varied auto industry for all segments of the the global market (with fragmented market shares), the mobile segment will evolve similarly, with each one having a decent share of the pie...I don't think any of these industries will be dominated by any one single player...
    Sep 14, 2013. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Groupon Plummeted After Earnings [View article]
    Navid, I've shared your article in my Linkedin group - http://linkd.in/QsfWtz
    Nov 20, 2012. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For 2013 And Beyond: Exploring The Endgame For Financial Markets [View article]
    Shared your article on my Linkedin group - http://linkd.in/RQWe7B
    Nov 20, 2012. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Groupon Plummeted After Earnings [View article]
    Today's news - Tiger Global Management takes a 10% stake in $GRPN - short term bullish, but long term concerns remain.
    Nov 20, 2012. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Groupon Plummeted After Earnings [View article]
    Navid, great insight on $GRPN. Could you explain why their Cash balance is $300M. I know you mentioned their Current assets minus Liabilities. Does this mean they have blown thru their IPO money on marketing or otherwise loss making activities ?
    Nov 18, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Someday Will Kill Facebook, But We're Not There Yet [View article]
    You missed an important factor - revenues and profits. Arguably, $FB is still on an upward trend, and analysts and investors are giving it the benefit of doubt. But over the next 2 to 3 years, they really have to prove if they can justify a multiple between 60 - 100. If they can't do that, they may survive as a social network but not as a great business.
    Nov 18, 2012. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For 2013 And Beyond: Exploring The Endgame For Financial Markets [View article]
    Nice article Eric (as usual). I agree with the scenarios you have laid out - I'd like to point out one big difference we're seeing in #QE3 in comparisons to QE 1 and QE 2. I understand your point that QE3 money takes 2 to 3 months to seep into the system. The same would have been true with QE1 and 2. However, markets responded instantly and reversed after the announcements of QE1 and 2. It comes back to your point on diminishing returns from QE, and the effects of QE3 are obviously being highly discounted this time. My sense is your scenarios could play out a little earlier - like mid 2013 itself.

    On a different note, If the markets do grind upwards, it would be interesting to see if the $SPX breaks the massive 20 year head and shoulders pattern which everyone is anxiously watching. The right shoulder is forming and if it turns back below a level of around 1575 (head), the pattern gets validated. Of course right now, we're about 20% lower than that.

    Lets see - great article..
    Nov 18, 2012. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Really Efficient Options Play Over Earnings [View article]
    Simon, this is a very good strategy, and you have explained it very well. If you go 1 to 2 weeks before earnings date, this strategy should result in profits for the long strangle as well. Most stocks like AAPL and GOOG witness a big bump in 2 weeks leading upto the event. I've also noticed that sometimes (due to collateral effect), the expiry series after the one that is impacted also witnesses a bump in IV. The bump may not be much, but it could see upto 10%. Why this happens - I can't say because this series is not exposed to the earnings event, so its just mispricing. This then makes for a very good iron condor put a day before the earnings. Your strikes can be further out too, reducing your risk of the stock hitting your short strikes. The trade may not be a blowout, but its relatively risk free because of mispricing in the Options series.
    Sep 26, 2012. 07:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straddles And Strangles - What, When, And Why? [View article]
    Strunkett,

    I agree with your strategy for earnings plays. I've actually tried this on a few stocks. This is my experience - if you buy the strangle/straddle too early, then you have to wait until the bump in IV. This may take a while, and you're losing on time decay in the meanwhile. If the bump you get on IV is high enough, it makes up for the wait. But this does not happen all the time. What's your experience - I'm very interested in this trade.
    Sep 23, 2012. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straddles And Strangles - What, When, And Why? [View article]
    Hi John, I feel you've tried to combine too many concepts into this post. If this was about straddles and strangles, you should have taken an example without the earnings reports. I say this because I think you're trying to make this post an introduction to Straddles and Strangles. Earnings play trades (and the explosion / implosion of Implied Volatility during this time) significantly complicates the matter. If the post was titled "Playing earnings with a straddle" it would have been perfect. Hope you'll consider this feedback in a positive way.
    Best
    Hari
    Sep 22, 2012. 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Paid 20% To Buy Netflix For $45 Per Share [View article]
    Wanted to point out to your readers that the table is revealing in another way - the ideal timeframe to sell Naked Puts or Put spreads for that matter is the 90 to 120 day timeframe. You can see annualized returns diminish on both sides of that timeframe. On the near side, time decay erodes the value of those Options, and on the far side there is too much time left and so return gets reduced.

    This is a good trade but it works only if you're prepared to buy Netflix at $45. If NFLX goes all the way down to $25, you will be holding a stock showing a paper loss.
    Sep 9, 2012. 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Facebook Worth? [View article]
    40% growth yoy for the next 5 years is a bit optimistic. Anyone that has experienced advertising on Facebook has realized that there is little ROI. Most of the clicks are bogus. Very soon, people will realize this just like GM and others did. FB users are also going to mobile very fast. There is little opportunity to monetize that medium in a substantial way without cutting into user experience. FB has tough days ahead, won't be surprised with another 30% drop in the coming months.
    Sep 9, 2012. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Great' Roubini: Wrong Again and Again [View article]
    Sorry Tom - none of your arguments hold water, in fact you're just another one of those bulls blinded by false realities. This recovery is built on foundations as fake as your arguments, and the pack of cards WILL come down. And then you will be WRONG WRONG WRONG again..
    Mar 6, 2010. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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26 Comments
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