Chandragupta

Economic Recovery, or Merely an Interlude?

Well said. End of Recession means nothing for the common man. Unless Employment generation begins, there will be no improvement. And that day is far far away.

Because employment growth will begin when the US economy will become competitive by Global standards i.e. will be in a position to compete with Asian countries. You cannot even imagine that happening today, or in foreseeable future.

A lot of things will have to be "reset" before that. A complete paradigm shift is required in the way the problem is approached by the US Administration. Today, that seems to be missing.

Estimate Revisions and 'The Earnings Season Racket'

Comparisons with Earnings Estimates are meaningless. What matters is the absolute change vis-a-vis previous periods. Also, earnings can be easily manipulated, but revenues are more difficult to manipulate. Hence, look at the revenue growth to really understand whether things are improving or getting worse.

Unemployment: We're Not Out of the Woods Yet

No recovery here, absolutely no. It is just that fewer people lost their jobs than what the economists predicted. Does not mean things are improving.

US Dollar: "I'm Not Dead Yet!"

Once again the same old arguement - there is no alternative (to the dollar). Not a very strong arguement. Alternatives will emerge. Slowly but surely they will.

Why China Still Loves Gold, Silver

"Considering that China started promoting gold and silver as an investment back in August, one can assume that the current floor is around the price seen in August: 950 in US dollars, 650 in euros, 1130 in Australian dollars, 1030 in Canadian dollars, 570 in pound sterling, 890,000 in Japanese yen" - Are you saying the Chinese will "hold" not only the price of Gold, but also the respective exchange rates?? Wrong statement. All one can assume is that the current floor is the price seen in August in the Chinese Currency, since that is what the Chinese will be buying Gold in.

The Economic Recovery That Isn't

Very true,Peter! Excellent article.

Consumer Debt Sets New Records - Again

Good article. Right on the mark!

Two Opposing Takes: Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

When you have a crises caused by too much of debt, both at a national and personal level, shrinkage of money supply, as caused by repayment of debt, increase in savings rate and deferment of avoidable consumption is actually a good thing. Forget growth - deleveraging is the need of the hour. The first thing in order to judge performance is to get the metrics right - and that is where most of the people seem to have got it wrong. Including the Fed.

China, U.S. and Private Equity Driving IPOs

Increasing number of IPOs, increasing size of each IPO, increasingly aggressive pricing and the expectations that "the deal flow will continue" - all pointers to an equity bubble building up. Beware!

Merkel on Falkenstein's 'Finding Alpha: When Risk and Return Break Down'

That's right, portfolio theory is crap! It is the surest way to get mediocre returns. What is risk? Risk is not beta, or standard deviation, risk is not knowing what you are doing! Know your investment well, and invest at the right price. That's the key to super normal returns - at low risk!

Employment Losses Appear to Be Moderating

How on earth does pick up in M & A indicate recovery? Assets are cheap - this is a very bad sign in itself. Another reason for increased M & A may be cost of funds is very low, almost zero. So managements hard pressed for organic growth, are trying to grow businesses somehow. M & A neither indicates recovery, nor does it contribute to a recovery.

Shaky Start for September as Investors Sell the News

".......in our opinion equities are no longer cheap. A substantial amount of economic improvement has already been priced in.......". What an understatement! S & P 500 is at a P/E of 143. Miniscule tid bits of good news here and there, and how much have the markets jumped? Stock markets have completely lost touch with underlying economic reality.

Where Exactly Is the Recovery Coming From?

Brilliant article!

Reports of the Dollar's Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

Marc, if everything is so hunky-dory as you point out, why is there a crisis in the first place? Are you not seeing only one side of the story?

The truth of the matter is that the US consumer over leveraged, and is now unable to repay. While this happened, the Federal Reserve (first Greenspan, then Bernanke) slept. Now, clueless as the administration is about what to do, we are going to see the demise of the dollar. It is only a matter of time, whatever you may say. The international community has already lost its faith in the dollar, how long can you rest in the belief that there is no alternative? Alternatives emerge. In US itself, five states have introduced bills to bring back Gold. If Americans are losing faith in the Dollar, why should the world believe in it?

The only argument Dollar supporters make is that "there is no alternative". Not a very convincing argument, I would say.

Dr. Marc Faber on 'Recovery'

Good interview, though it is not clear what exactly he means by War. Will the US invade someone, and why? More likely, there would be internal civil disturbance in the US, triggered by rise in unemployment, poverty, collapse of the dollar, hyperinflation, crime and xenophobia.