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Chandragupta

Chandragupta
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  • Book Review: Bruno Solnik's International Investments [View article]
    Is this a book review? Please tell us WHY you think this is a good book.
    Jul 4, 2009. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Move Over Fed, California's Now Printing Its Own Money [View article]
    Is this competition for the dollar? Already a few of the states are debating Gold Money bills. Is this the beginning of THE END for the dollar (in its present form)?
    Jul 4, 2009. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Confidence Index Indicates Bottoming for Equities [View article]
    I don't understand the statement "....a strong historical relationship exists between the Barron’s Confidence Index and the S&P 500’s 12-month rate of change....". It only means if the indicator is bullish today, it was a good time to buy 12 months ago. In fact, if an indicator is bullish today, it means it is useless. Just look at the gloomy news all around you.
    Jul 4, 2009. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exuberance in Commodities: How Long Will It Last? [View article]
    The rise in the price of the commodities reflects the fall in the purchasing power of the dollar (as also that of other fiat currencies). Since this fall is directly a result of the Quantitative Easing that is underway, it is unlikely to be reversed, unless the QE itself is reversed. But it is not easy to reverse the excess liquidity, without causing substantial (further) damage to the economy. That is the problem.
    Jul 1, 2009. 07:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver and Oil: Shiny and Rare [View article]
    Good article. Thanks!
    Jul 1, 2009. 07:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Golden Cross Adds Weight to a Long Investment Position [View article]
    What are the "variety of improving fundamental factors" that you are seeing today?
    Jun 30, 2009. 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The jobless rate climbed in all 372 U.S. metro areas in May, the Labor Department reports (.pdf). Fifteen areas reported jobless rates of 15% or more, and 112 areas had rates of 10% - up from six areas a year ago. Highest rate among large cities: Detroit, at 15%; lowest: Oklahoma City, 5.7%.  [View news story]
    All the experts who claimed there will be a "recovery in the second half of the year" - brace up now! The second half of the year starts tomorrow!
    Jun 30, 2009. 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seasonality in Indian Inflation Data [View article]
    India's inflation numbers are a big joke. The man on the street is getting crushed under rising prices of essential commodities, and the government is coming out with a near zero inflation number. The data collection method is archaic and time lag between reporting and its reflection into the index runs into years, nothing less. And finally, the composition of the index itself is meaningless - imagine including typewriters but not mobile phones!
    Jun 30, 2009. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cotton: A Better Way to Play Oil? [View article]
    Larry House is absolutely right. If you are bullish on oil, you buy oil, not cotton.

    The arguments made in this article are typical "Jim Rogers" type of arguments. But I think the case for argo-commodities in general is not as strong as that for industrial commodities. For example, cotton production in India has doubled in the last 9 years (from around 13-15 million bales per year to around 29 million bales now). This has been achieved due to introduction of the Genetically Modified Bt cotton. Thus, there is plenty of scope to increase supply of agricultural commodities, to keep pace with the growing population. I doubt the statement "........the big marginal yield gains from the ‘green revolution’ have already been made....". This may be true of the developed West, but there is plenty of Land (and agriculture) in China, India, Africa and rest of the less developed World which has not yet been touched by modern technology and where yields can be increased dramatically.
    Jun 30, 2009. 11:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have We Forgotten That Savings Is a Good Thing? [View article]
    You have touched upon a very important subject – savings. You are right in that “…….higher savings implies ………….fuel for more spending tomorrow…….” Those who believe savings are bad for the US economy have completely failed to understand the root cause of the current problems. The problems in the US have been caused by too much debt, both at the individual and national level.

    What is ‘smart spending’ and what is ‘wasteful spending’ is, however, open to debate and subjective. What is value for one may not be value for another.

    You have missed an important point though - the financial position of the spender, and whether the money spent is her own or borrowed. To the extent that one spends from one’s past savings, spending can cause no harm. The moment debt comes into play, spending can become excessive (as it has), cause a binge and generate a never ending spiral of disaster – borrow again to pay past borrowings.
    Jun 28, 2009. 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death of Gold? [View article]
    Good article. You have made valid points. However, you need to go one step further and answer the following question - how does one define 'volatility'? If one is measuring Gold's volatility against other fiat currencies, it only gives volatility of those other currencies when measured in Gold! Thus, one needs to measure volatility vis-a-vis 'purchasing power' - against other goods, services and commodities which have utilitarian value.
    Jun 28, 2009. 07:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New research on homeowners with negative equity 'walking away' suggests things could snowball as home values dip beneath a psychological threshold, and as the stigma of defaulting fades.  [View news story]
    The article and an accompanying link mentions "..This has led many people to suggest principle reductions (as opposed to payment modifications) is the only solution...".

    I differ. The suggestion will cause disaster - house values have plummeted for EVERYONE, including those who are NOT IN DEFAULT. If principal reductions are given to those in default, you are inviting EVERYONE to default. Actions such as outright forgiveness, as suggested, will set a dangerous precedent and will do nothing to discourage future indiscretion (both on the lenders and borrowers part). And finally, who will bear the cost of all this and how much will it come to? Seems mind-boggling to me.
    Jun 28, 2009. 02:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economy-Wise, The Great Experiment Seems to Be Working [View article]
    Good article. Growth in income and consumption, yes, but sourced from the printing press. Ultimately, the price of all this will have to be paid in the form of reduced value of the dollar. With their fiscal stimulus response, Obama and team have gambled - only time will tell whether it works out or fails, since there is no precedence to refer to in history. At the moment though, it does seem that odds are stacked heavily against them.
    Jun 27, 2009. 02:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China Preparing to Buy Gold? [View article]
    You end with "Americans are likely to be a lot poorer over the next decade thanks to Obama....." It is actually Bush + Greenspan team who brought the country here, not Obama. Of course, it is another matter that Obama, with his current crop of advisors, is unable to reverse the flow.
    Jun 27, 2009. 02:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Bernanke Blow Bubbles Too? [View article]
    Great post. Sure, Bernanke does blow bubbles. But I doubt Green Energy would be a bubble so soon. What we are surely having (perhaps already underway) is the Dollar bubble.

    Its already worth far too much than what fundamentals dictate. Perhaps the only thing that holding it up is competitive devaluation by other economies, keen to support their exposures in dollar assets and export oriented economies.
    Jun 25, 2009. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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