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ambiorix

ambiorix
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  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Daskapital1000 [View article]
    I share your view.
    I find SA contributions varied and interesting.
    It's a forum I enjoy reading
    Jun 20, 2015. 08:10 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market: Big Movers And Why Greece Will Accept A Deal Rather Than Default [View article]
    I agree that Greece is in a corner. The acidic eruptions (humiliation, criminal IMF liability) just show how deep the Greek people are hurt by a worse than failed lenders' policy prescription, a 20 year old scratched record they keep playing over and over while knowing it doesn't work. 5 years of, in the favoured IMF words, "bitter medicine" took Greece 25% down while others grew = total gap 30% +). Stupid game back in 2008: I write down some of your debt to bring Debt/GDP down to 120, but then I take away your income from 100 to 70. I am in denial about the consequence of the resultant debt /GDP of 177. Your pensions are too high at 16%, cut 1% ... and we will take awaysome more money. Your new pension burden will be up from 16 to 20% caused by further austerity but that's OK as we prescribed it and it secures future business. Left as the new Greek government may be, to link debt repayment to economic growth not austerity induced regression is a sensible argument, but IMF "politicians" against their own academia (head economist) remain stubborn enough not to budge (to score political points?) and to wreck untold misery on a people. I am really disappointed in the total lack of lenders' flexibility and innovation that would get Greece out of this quagmire.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Economists Are Still Overexcited [View article]
    I have some difficulty reaching the same conclusion from the commencement of the European QE: "As a result, the economy is already growing above potential and downside risks are elevated over the short term", especially given that besides Germany almost all countries have shown less than pedestrian growth for the last couple of years.
    It's been my conviction that the German brake on the belated QE caused a lot of damage in slow growth and flirting with deflation for the entire Euro zone.
    I am inclined to think that the QE will still produce some acceleration of growth in the next few quarters, a growth which right now is visibly below (not above) potential.
    May 16, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil's Inventory Problem Dampens Price Recovery [View article]
    Good article
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe And Greeks Trying To Come To Terms: Do Not Forget To Sell The Euro [View article]
    Jeroen Dijselbloem is to Schlaube what Blair was to Bush. Dijselbloem boasted about what he labelled his achievements in Cyprus. Wrecking havoc on people is never an achievement.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe And Greeks Trying To Come To Terms: Do Not Forget To Sell The Euro [View article]
    Herr Schlaube's hypocritical puritanism does not help. He is exceptionally quiet about the benefits Germany has enjoyed over the same many years through a subsidised "German" Euro, as Germany allowed Greece to "live beyond their means". When you wake up and start to govern Greece by proxy through wilful imposition of excessive austerity, you must share the consequences.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Exposes The Global Economy's Achilles Heel [View article]
    Interesting angle. I am not sure if that alone could solve Greece's problem?
    As an aside, what did the "eminence grise" of the Troika learn from 1933-34: Am I sharing your view if I say Nothing?
    Feb 8, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Exposes The Global Economy's Achilles Heel [View article]
    You have some views I can share but I would take issue with the statement that "austerity" tries to address decreasing the cost of government and increasing tax revenue. The Troika may ab initio have thought that way. However it is almost a contradictio in terminis. Decreasing the cost of government also means decreasing GDP whether you like it or not. The real aim would have been to REPLACE bad GDP with good GDP. (For instance, if I idle in traffic and increase petrol consumption I increase GDP, yet that doesn't do much to contribute to efficiency or competitiveness in other words good GDP.) The sad part is that the Troika in the face of this costly destruction of GDP and in denial of the sovereign humiliation, social fabric disintegration and the creation of lifetime unemployment for many, remained stuck like a scratched record. I don't mind they will be party to paying a big price for their actions.
    Feb 8, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: Are You Finally Ready To Do The Right Thing And Leave The Euro? [View article]
    @Debutant
    Yes Goldman Sachs cooked the books, but it was not to gain entry to the Euro. It was still to cover up and hide the truth about it's finances. Greece pays twice. Once to Goldman and now to the Troika. They should have known that such cover-up could never be helpful, ... or was it out of fear of what was coming down from the Troika so aptly described in the article?
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Exposes The Global Economy's Achilles Heel [View article]
    Interesting article. And it is spot on in relation to the Debt (/GDP) as far a Greece is concerned. It is entirely correct that the Troika and European bureaucrats remedies were absolutely wrong and do not work and it's time they acknowledge this. If they forced these remedies they should share the blame. They shrank the GDP with unwavering austerity.
    However, in the wider context, there is no simple answer to the debt trap as caused by a high Debt/GDP. Japan sits over 200%. When the Troika deemed Greece's too high it sat at about 120% but the haircut was more than cancelled out by their so-called remedies. Belgium sits over 100% but doesn't suffer agony.
    There is more to being trapped than simple by referring to a (high) Debt/GDP
    Feb 6, 2015. 06:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syriza's Victory Is Not The End But The Beginning [View article]
    I don't mind the information but the crux of the article is not about Greece?
    I have commented earlier and elsewhere about the total lack of creative, productive and rational thinking by the Troika. They applied measures with cruelty like feeding geese for foie gras. The worst is that it actually did not even produce any decent result... and expect Greece to be grateful?
    Like the article mentioned it depends on which side of the table you're on and it's called either negotiation or blackmail. I don't mind the "blackmail" voted for by a vast majority of Greek. Let's hope it will curb a little the arrogance of the Troika.
    Jan 26, 2015. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equity Market In 2015 Based On Macro Models [View article]
    Good article. I think the research and comments are very sound
    Jan 11, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia: Who Is Going To Win In The Oil Price Stand-Off? [View article]
    Informative but having done the research lacking in an assessment of how quick and how big the problem nations would be able to supply (Iran, Iraq) Syria is completely negligible in terms of quantum.
    The graph may lead to wrong conclusions because it does not depict relative importance. The growth in the US was phenomenal, but what is their market share? If Saudi Arabia has 25% market share and increases that by 5% it's huge. If the US growth faster than the rest by 150% but from a small share, it's worthwhile taking note off but will not throw the market and pricing completely off balance.
    I am still looking for an article that attempts to explain the magnitude of the drop looking at all aspects (supply-demand, investment funds influence and so on).
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece Sink The Eurozone? [View article]
    Shareholders Unite
    Agreed again on Greece.
    On the other issue I might be a little biased. I had a cousin working at the EU, the Tower of Babylon, where a Greek who also speaks Italian works on a team with a Dutchman who also speaks English and a Frenchman who perhaps knows some Polish, because the UK, France and Germany cannot agree on one common language aside from your mother tongue. Well paid they are indeed, so well it is forbidden for a university graduate to apply for a high school level job - that pays better than any university level job in national governments. Cameroon is kind of the lone ranger (Don Quichote) fighting the fat in this bureaucracy.
    I am sure other international entities (UN, NATO, UNESCO etc...) suffer from the same obesity.
    Enjoyed the conversation
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece Sink The Eurozone? [View article]
    BLEU (Belgian Luxemburg Economic Union) - common currency the Franc
    Benelux: Belgium Netherlands Luxemburg - Cooperation agreement
    EGKS: European Union for Coal and Steel (6 members: Benelux, German, France & Italy)
    EU - by now some 26(?) member states
    EMU - European Monetary Union
    Euro
    And possibly some I forgot.
    Surely it has advanced expansion and integration of markets and economies.
    I have an inkling it has been at considerable cost - overweight and expensive bureaucracies and insufficient political devolution of power to "Europe".
    Right now I am not betting on which way Greece will go, but I think eventually they will stay in the Euro frightened by doomsday scenarios "experts" will paint of the alternative.
    One definition of an expert is someone who knows what to do when things don't go as designed or planned. Looks to me these were sorely missing when Greece's problems started
    Jan 5, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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