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  • Top 5 Graphs of the Week: China Focus [View article]
    I don't think I have seen a China money supply graph before - unless I am being overly simplistic, don't money supply growth rates consistently over 20-25% suggest there is something to the China bubble argument? I am increasingly buying into it.
    Aug 14, 2010. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: The Next EU Sovereign Debt Crisis, Coming Soon [View article]
    I wouldn't disagree with any of this and I know Spain because I live and at least try to make a living here. I would say however that your key stats on the current fiscal deficit and total public+private to debt to GDP are actually worse for the US. Perhaps the US economy has a lot more going for it than Spain's and is less likely to buckle under the debt burden. But really the only difference is that Spain has exhausted its credibility earlier because it is a smaller country in a Euro straitjacket. The dollar's reserve status and the Fed's ability to play funny money tricks may buy the US time but it is not so very different to Spain.
    Jun 25, 2010. 05:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: New Apple TV to Cost $99, Subscription Service Needed to Go With It [View article]
    Thanks for this news and insight. I am fascinated by the fact that TV seems to have been largely untouched by the internet revolution, at least on the surface. It seems that is all about to change and who would bet against Apple being the ones to clean up.
    Jun 3, 2010. 03:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rename BP Amoco After the Well Gets Plugged? [View article]
    The legal actions, brand damage and clean up costs all look horrendous and this is before a solution is found. I am thinking of baling from my position.
    Jun 2, 2010. 05:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain ETF Not Necessarily a Sinking Ship [View article]
    I live in Spain and am intensely gloomy on the local economy and have been for at least a couple of years:

    The boom was more intense than even those of the UK and the US. The policy reaction has been ostrich-like up until now when they have started to make the banks write down losses and taken an axe to public spending. Problem is that the economy is totally stagnant and the "medicine" is only going to make it worse. Without growth there can be no improvement on the banks, household or the government balance sheets.

    As a footnote I don't really trust that Santander and BBVA are as safe as it is often claimed.
    May 31, 2010. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Keeps Screwing It Up [View article]
    Good article. Nice to see some balance to all the Apple hype we are so used to hearing. The author didn't give his view on the stockprice. A bubble or justified?
    May 27, 2010. 03:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Failure Friday: Just One [View article]
    I live in Spain and my bank just went bust! It's called CajaSur and is a large regional savings bank heavily exposed to property and construction. They are talking about a 500m€ bailout but the trouble is most of the savings banks are in a similar position. Spain is in a pickle.
    May 23, 2010. 03:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Accelerate [View article]
    I'm usually pretty sceptical about stockmarket darlings and tech stock love-ins but Apple is the real deal. The only thing more remarkable than the rise of the stock price up from 8$ in 2003 is the rise in earnings (a mere 8c then compared to about 13$ now). It's certainly fairly valued and has a lot of nascent opportunities.
    May 21, 2010. 02:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • News Corp. Takes Leap Towards Online Subscription-Based News Model [View article]
    There are some other sites that have tried to charge for news - the Economist for example and some niche sectors. But the move by News International is the boldest yet and surely doomed to fail. Apart from anything it is priced way to high at $3 a week when most people only want to skim a few pieces at most.
    Mar 31, 2010. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to Debt Saturation [View article]
    I think most of us outside of Washington have got the idea by now that simply adding to the debt mountain is not going to grow the economy. But where is the talk of serious supply side reforms that might?
    Mar 25, 2010. 08:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP's Credibility Reestablished [View article]
    I'm bullish on BP and the other oil majors generally. I published this recently about the major oil companies' futures being much brighter than many analysts credit. I particularly like BP for its commitment to the dividend.
    Mar 10, 2010. 12:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Great' Roubini: Wrong Again and Again [View article]
    I think it's fair to pick over Roubini's prognostications. He's gained enough from the ones he got right. He has made a big call on what he calls the gold "bubble" recently and I think he is dead wrong about that. I published this piece contrasting his bearishness with John Paulson's big bet on gold. Paulson's right.
    Mar 5, 2010. 06:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet on a Recovery [View article]
    Don't assume that 10% unemployment means 90% are in gainful employment and thus able to support a consumer led recovery. What about people who have given up looking for a job? Or those who have taken enforced early retirement on lower than expected incomes?
    Mar 2, 2010. 06:34 AM | 38 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Not Be a Double Dip [View article]
    I don't really buy this. A continued recovery of sorts is not out of the question given everything that has been thrown at the economy but it's not "exceedingly likely". Comparison with previous recoveries is fatuous if you accept that this recession ended a long era when all it took to revive the economy was another round of credit creation and bubbles. That trick won't work this time. Even though I admit the latest attempt to reflate the economy has been more effective than I thought it would be, it's still bound to reverse.
    Mar 1, 2010. 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop in Consumer Confidence Shakes the Markets [View article]
    Don't underestimate Germany's reluctance to give its blessing to any meaningful Greek bailout or underwrite their debt. The German electorate, by a clear majority, did not want the Euro and were promised that there would be no pooling of debt sovereignty. To bail out Greece would be effectively extend a free ride to every other country in Europe and not even the German government will countenance the betrayal of its own people's interests to that extent.
    Feb 24, 2010. 02:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment