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hearsayit

hearsayit
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  • Interactive Brokers: Looking For A New Broker, I Found A Compelling Investment [View article]
    IB has the best experience of the dozen brokerage services I have used. However, their abundant features and functionality often have bugs and may not be the best for the less experienced investor. It’s definitely worth the inconvenience for me. They have an awesome development team and are constantly coming up with great new features. From an investment standpoint, they don't make much money from me because of their extremely low commissions and their market data offerings that seem to be at cost. Their money seems to come from interest on account balances and arbitrage on limit orders. If they don’t make money from market making, how do they make money?
    Oct 2 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Long. Get Short. BlackBerry's Value Ain't $8 [View article]
    Its hard not to perceive this as screaming buy. Even if they never sell another Blackberry and everything but real-estate is worthless, there is still $4.47 in cash and at least $4 in appreciated real estate. It even makes sense that they would try to talk the price down given the insider relationship described above.

    Keep in mind that Blackberry was very profitable until recently and big corporations are still customers. There just doesn't seem to be justification for long term accounting irregularities.
    Sep 29 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude: The Refiners' Top Choice [View article]
    Interesting information about the quality of Bakken crude. It would be nice to know more about the relative cost to produce and transport Bakken. Knowing this may shed some light on why the majors are not more interested. However, the current regulatory environment might be a factor. The government’s bashing of BP shows that the US can be as treacherous as Nigeria and even more detrimental to the lives and careers of those who work for the majors. The government’s decision to prosecute those responsible for Horizon is definitely something that is considered when choosing drill sites to produce.
    Dec 7 11:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HollyFrontier Is A Pure Play In The Mid-Continent [View article]
    Excellent presentation and support. This article clearly illustrates that advantages that mid western refiners have given the current WTI/Brent spread.
    Dec 7 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's tough to find any market pros to go on the record, says a fired-up Gary Kaminsky, but what they're telling clients is the election was bad news for stocks. The bull market from the 2009 lows was about stocks priced for Armageddon meeting massive central bank stimulus, he says, but that dynamic is played out, leaving the markets to deal with the reality of a weak economy and questionable leadership in D.C. [View news story]
    The perception that taxes, regulatory, and health care costs will increase for corporations will affect stock prices. Obama's administration has demonstrated that more of this is coming. With Romney there was hope that regulation and taxes would be reduced to improve the economy. Obama feels that increasing taxes and government spending will improve the economy. Given that Obama’s approach didn’t work the 1st 4 years and he shows no signs of changing direction. The market must price in the probability of 4 more years like the last 4 years. Given the above, there is a lot of support for the statement that “the election was bad news for stocks”.
    Nov 15 01:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources Is Not Dead [View article]
    CLF does look cheap at its current price.
    Oct 12 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Classic Value Trap [View article]
    It is a stretch to try and justify CLF's stock price based on macro factors. Even if the trend is to use more scrap, it will be years before this trend shows up in CLF's earnings.
    Oct 12 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4.9% Dividend Yield, Cheap Valuations - What Else Could You Want From Royal Dutch Shell? [View article]
    RDS is probably not going to do much better than the low 70's. However, including the 5% dividend, that is not a bad return.
    Oct 11 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Classic Value Trap [View article]
    CLF isn't behaving like a value trap currently. It's holding resistance around 39. It did look like a value trap until 9/5. There is defiantly enough fundamental support to justify the recent change in stock price direction.
    Oct 11 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Investors: Go Long On This Stock Now [View article]
    Not much downside from here providing it holds resistance.
    Oct 10 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect When Cliff Natural Resources Reports Earnings [View article]
    7% downside and at least 10% upside from here. It could get to 50 this time but the volatility is almost to high to justify taking a position.
    Oct 10 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources May Have Finally Hit An Inflection Point [View article]
    Deffinately an inflection point and looks like its moving to the upside.
    Oct 8 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: A Risk Reversal [View article]
    If CLF is 0 on 1/18/14, the 35 calls are 0 and you get put the stock at $40. Your total loss is $40 - $1.45 = $38.50 or ($38,500).

    Its not likely, but something to consider. I don't know if its worth the risk given the low liquidity of 2014 options.
    Sep 26 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incredible Inflation Bond Bargain [View article]
    What am I missing?

    A yield of 0% doesn’t seem like a good deal even though it’s better than the -1.59% for TIPS.

    I know it has something to do with inflation, but how much money will someone actually make by taking this position?
    Sep 25 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Time For A Massive Short [View article]
    Maybe, as the Independent Investor has indicated, CLF is overvalued; but the market is saying the opposite. No signs that it’s going to fall yet. Looks like the path of least resistance is up.
    Sep 12 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
75 Comments
85 Likes