Seeking Alpha

weissflog

weissflog
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View weissflog's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Seeking Opportunity: 10 Stocks To Watch Right Now [View article]
    Hi Brian,

    Read this in another S/A article today.

    ----------------------...
    I'd also like to mention Aastrom Biosciences Inc. (ASTM). This company is working to complete a phase 3 pivotal trial of its stem cell therapy in critical limb ischemia [CLI]. Based on the phase 2 data set and the size and powering of the pivotal trial, we believe Aastrom has a good probability of success.

    The trial's goal is to demonstrate an improvement in the amputation-free survival rate of the treated patients. Aastrom uses a bone marrow aspirate and expands the cells, optimizing the heterogeneous population mix. Key to Aastrom's success will be validating the thesis that the cell product has been optimized and therefore is advantageous.

    Aastrom is positioned to have the first approved therapy for CLI in the marketplace. We believe "first mover advantage" is vitally important for the company, as it is likely to face future competition from others, such as Pluristem, in CLI. Investors should appreciate that Aastrom's core expertise is in cell manufacturing. As such, the company's COGS are low for an autologous-processed product. By comparison, the processing COGS associated with the Baxter International Inc. (BAX), NeoStem Inc. (NBS) and Cytomedix Inc. (CMXI.OB) approaches are very high. The fact that the NeoStem product requires more than 20 bone marrow needle punctures and multiple pulls on each needle concerns us, as does the Baxter approach of administering granulocyte colony-stimulating factor [GcSF] to CMI patients and then subjecting them to apheresis. Investors today are fearful of all the autologous models, as the Dendreon experience is still fresh in their minds.
    ----------------------...

    It's all technical mumbo jumbo to me; but, sounds like a disadvantage for NBS.

    Would you please share your comments?

    Thanks,
    Rick
    Mar 15 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Breakthroughs In Cell Therapy Development [View article]
    Bergerac and others,

    You guys need to chill out a bit!

    Seems to me, you are giving far more weight to these "pump pieces" , as you call them, then they deserve. I invested in NBS back in Aug. I learned about the company after the STEM breakout in July. I've read all the SA articles as well as other sources including the NBS and PCT web sites. Yes, the SA articles had an influence on my decision; but, I'd say, no more than 10% of it.

    I've been monitoring the company closely since then, and have noticed (been amazed actually) at how little influence SA has on the day to day movement of the stock. I can only attribute one short lived rally back in Nov. to any of them. That was the one where Brian touted the schedule of presentations the company was planning and how they could spur investor interest. The stock rallied for about three days on modest volume, then petered out and began it's decline from .70 to .60 that has now ended.

    When you think about it, SA is simply a forum for opinions and, every day, they publish articles pro, con or neutral on all facets of the wonderful world of investing. Problem is, opinions usually conflict with each other and you can find yourself agreeing with one until you read another with an opposing view point that changes your mind for they all seem to have good points and make sense.

    Fact is there are only four things driving the NBS stock price:

    -Overall market sentiment.
    -Overall Biotech market sentiment
    -Financial data
    -Research data

    At the end of '12 biotech sentiment was flat/down. It is currently enjoying a reversal. How long that will continue is anyone's guess. In the end, you can rest assured, financial and research data will determine which companies are winners and losers.

    So, if your long NBS, enjoy the articles and take comfort that you're not alone in believing this company has great potential. If you own something else take heart that they only represent someone's opinion and have little if any impact on the stock price. Believe anyone posting here is a small fry, buying a few hundred to a few thousand shares. Even a thousand of us aren't going to have much of an impact except, maybe, for a day or two. None of the stocks mentioned are going to move much until the institutions and other fat cat money managers decide to get into or exit the game.

    Relax,
    Rick
    Jan 7 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Osiris Overvalued, NeoStem Is A Better Buy [View article]
    I am also long NBS; but, have concerns about PCT's income potential. Understand it has shown great growth over the past year; but, how long can that continue?

    Do you have any idea how many clients PCT is currently servicing? Who are they? How many potential additions are there in this limited field? In a world where anything can literally be shipped overnight half way around the globe, is there really a need for regional manufacturing facilities much closer to the patient? PCT has huge potential only if the answer to that last question is yes. If not, while IMUC will probably stay, BAX and SOTIO will go the way of DNDN once/if FDA approvals are granted.

    Hope you can provide some additional thoughts about this.

    Thanks,
    Rick
    Jan 2 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks With The Catalysts And Opportunity For Large Returns Over The Next Year [View article]
    Brian,

    I hope your comments on PCT revenue growth over the next year prove to be accurate.

    Regarding questions for NBS CEO Dr. Robin Smith,

    Here are some suggestions I gave to Swiss Trader who is also
    thinking of pursuing an interview with her.

    Do you think there is any merit in what I suggest and have to say?

    Thanks again,
    Rick


    NBS will always have value so long as the testing its conducting remains promising. That said, the value of its stock can gyrate wildly in the short and intermediate term. Its important to understand the why of what's happening.

    Moving forward, a few comments and suggestions.

    1. Possible interview with Robin Smith:

    Her job is to put the best face forward for her company. She is limited as to what she can say due to the possibility of misleading investors and divulging privileged information. Keeping that in mind, questions must be carefully crafted and general.

    I would suggest you first research short sellers and their reasons. If you can find out that information, the first thing you could say to Robin is - "Here are the reasons why so many are negative about your company. What do you have to say to them?" Her answer should lead you into more questions.

    2. DNDN

    I think their mistake can be boiled down to simple greed. They didn't want to share profits which they grossly overestimated. They cut out PCT and wound up spending oodles of bucks they couldn't afford building facilities they would not need.

    There is a lesson in this; but, only to smaller PCT clients like IMUC. They will think twice before deciding to go it alone.

    Companies like BAX and SOTIO already have the manufacturing space needed although, I'm guessing, not in the USA. Once approvals are received It only makes sense to stay with PCT if it is true that there is great value in having regional facilities much closer to where the patient is. Things can literally be shipped overnight half way around the world, so does it really make that much of a difference? I don't know the answer, perhaps Robin can tell us.

    3. PCT new clients

    I would love to know how many clients they actually are serving. I've heard somewhere its 100 or so. I'd be very pleasantly surprised if half of that number is anywhere close to being accurate. All our concerns would eventually be washed away as more and more of them reach late stage testing.

    I don't think Robin will divulge the real number; however, the total number of possible clients (those doing R and D in this field) should be something you could find out. How many of them are small and how many would have deep pockets? How many are based in USA and how many elsewhere?

    This all leads back to the previous question about the importance of regional centers. If that is true it makes sense for companies like BAX and SOTIO to use PCT as their American facility (at least for a few years). And it makes sense for PCT to build facilities in other countries that would be used by American companies seeking approvals and, eventually, marketing their products in them.

    If you can get some answers about the points above, believe we will know much more about the likely hood of PCT adding many additional clients.
    Dec 5 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks With The Catalysts And Opportunity For Large Returns Over The Next Year [View article]
    Hi Brian,

    Regarding NBS,

    In your last article you interviewed CEO Dr. Smith and mentioned
    you would be reporting on a second interview you hoped to have
    within a week.

    What happened to that second interview?

    Thanks,
    Rick
    Dec 5 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem Awarded $1.2 Million Grant For VSEL Development [View article]
    Skywola,

    I hear you and, I think, all of us who have written here believe as you and I do. Yet, as evidenced by the amount of short selling, there are multitudes who disagree. I would simply like to understand their rational. Is it anything that has been talked about here, or is it a simple look at NBS yr/yr financial comparisons which, if you only look on the surface, are terrible?

    FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS . Symbol Value ($)
    Sales* 29.44 Mil
    Income* -43.93 Mil
    Sales Growth* +5.60%
    Income Growth* -102.90%
    Net Profit Margin -179.29%

    Even if PCT growth stalls and they have to raise capitol by diluting shares, in the end, the potential growth in value is still in the 1,000s of percent (unless testing goes south).

    It just drives me batty that so many can't see what seems obvious to you and me.

    Rick
    Nov 26 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem Awarded $1.2 Million Grant For VSEL Development [View article]
    jsiebel720,

    You can't be serious!

    I would have no shot at getting an interview and don't have the credentials to even think about it.

    However, thanks for the compliment.
    Nov 23 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem Awarded $1.2 Million Grant For VSEL Development [View article]
    Swiss Trader,

    Thanks for your reply and looking forward to more articles that focus on the short term, quarter to quarter, developments that affect the industry, the company and the value of its stock.

    NBS will always have value so long as the testing its conducting remains promising. That said, the value of its stock can gyrate wildly in the short and intermediate term. Its important to understand the why of what's happening.

    Moving forward, a few comments and suggestions.

    1. Possible interview with Robin Smith:

    Her job is to put the best face forward for her company. She is limited as to what she can say due to the possibility of misleading investors and divulging privileged information. Keeping that in mind, questions must be carefully crafted and general.

    I would suggest you first research short sellers and their reasons. If you can find out that information, the first thing you could say to Robin is - "Here are the reasons why so many are negative about NBS. What do you have to say to them?" Her answer should lead you into more questions.

    2. DNDN

    I think their mistake can be boiled down to simple greed. They didn't want to share profits which they grossly overestimated. They cut out PCT and wound up spending oodles of money they couldn't afford building facilities they would not need.

    There is a lesson in this; but, only to smaller PCT clients like IMUC. They will think twice before deciding to go it alone.

    Companies like BAX and SOTIO already have the manufacturing space needed although, I'm guessing, not in the USA. Once approvals are received It only makes sense to stay with PCT if it is true that there is great value in having regional facilities much closer to where the patient is. Things can literally be shipped overnight half way around the world, so does it really make that much of a difference? I don't know the answer, perhaps Robin can tell you.

    3. PCT new clients

    I would love to know how many clients they actually are serving. I've heard somewhere its 100 or so. I'd be very pleasantly surprised if that is anywhere close to being accurate. All our concerns would eventually be washed away as more and more of them reached late stage testing.

    I don't think Robin will divulge the real number; however, the total number of possible clients (those doing R and D in this field) should be something you could find out. How many of them are small and how many would have deep pockets? How many are based in USA and how many elsewhere?

    This all leads back to the previous question about the importance of regional centers. If that is true it makes sense for companies like BAX and SOTIO to use PCT as their American facility at least for a few years. And it makes sense for PCT to build facilities in other countries that would be used by American companies seeking approvals and, eventually, marketing their products in them.

    If you can get some answers about the points above, believe we will know much more about the likely hood of PCT adding many additional clients.

    Hope I haven't rambled on too long.

    Thanks again for the work you are doing,
    Rick
    Nov 23 02:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem Awarded $1.2 Million Grant For VSEL Development [View article]
    Yes, I've seen it. Believe NBS is within the top 40 on the list of 100.

    With that amount of volume it must include some heavy hitter professionals and/or short analysts with large followings. Would love to know the rational behind their positions/recommendati...

    Of course, if they're wrong, it would be great for those of us who are long NBS!

    Rick
    Nov 22 03:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem Awarded $1.2 Million Grant For VSEL Development [View article]
    Swiss Trader,

    Insightful article on long term potential for NBS. One of many from various Seeking Alpha contributors. Unfortunately, these essays seem to be reaching only the choir, of which I am one.

    Would love for one of you to research and provide analysis about why all the recent good news has failed to provide much positive momentum.

    Here are some thoughts and questions I have:

    1. Why is NBS so heavily shorted? Is negativity due to lack of confidence in the products being developed or in the company's financial situation and belief it will eventually need to raise massive amounts via stock offerings causing share dilution?

    2. How many warrants and other stock options are still out there and at what strike price? Could this be a reason holding the stock back?

    3. In recent months both PCT and NBS presented at many industry and financial conferences. It seems to me this effort, to date, has been fruitless.

    - PCT has not announced the signing of any new clients.
    - NBS did not make any inroads regarding new major investors.

    Is this assessment accurate or premature? Why?

    4. Has NBS already applied for and been granted FDA fast track status? Does this still lie ahead or is it already baked into the cake?

    5. Without new major clients, and no guarantee for continuing with them once FDA approvals are granted, is it realistic to believe PCT division will continue it's rapid growth and provide relief for need of future financing?

    6. Results of phase two testing won't be know for at least a year.
    Baxter phase three test results won't be know for even a longer time frame. What developments could propel the stock in the meantime? Will NBS and similar companies spend most of 2013 meandering in a trading range? What surprises may lie out there that has the potential to move NBS and others substantially in either direction?

    I fully get the long term potential but would like to see more articles focusing on short and intermediate term developments.

    Hope you or someone will bring some light to this.

    Thanks again for the great article.

    Regards,
    Rick
    Nov 21 04:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem CEO Dr. Smith Talks PCT Potential And Explains Recent Bullish Developments [View article]
    Brian,

    Thanks for your reply.

    Don't know if you had that second interview yet; but, have a few comments and questions that perhaps you can ask Dr. Smith or tackle yourself.

    Over the past several months NBS has been making presentations at many key financial and pharma related conferences. In a previous article you commented that these events could spark a short term rally that could push the stock substantially higher. That didn't happen as the stock could not push beyond the 75 level and has been drifting lower ever since. You mentioned that one concern was a potential pull back in the market as a whole which could drag NBS down as well. That has happened and, in my opinion, the market will continue lower until questions regarding the fiscal cliff and raising of the debt level are address by the government.

    But what else might have caused NBS to stall? I have a theory that depends on those presentations being a first for the company.

    Do you know if NBS presents at them as part of an annual ritual, or was this something new?

    If new my theory may have some validity.

    I made my initial purchase in August, about a week before their 2nd quarter results were published. Now by know means am I a sophisticated or technically savvy investor; but, even I, when I read that report thought to myself "Well, this doesn't look good!". It seemed to me that NBS was a company on the verge of major financial problems, but with a ray of hope centered around the sale of it's China operation and the potential for, as Dr. Smith put it at one of those conferences, "a real hockey stick financial chart for its PCT division".

    Sure enough, within a week of the report, the stock plummeted to as low as 56 before rebounding back to the 70 level.

    So why didn't the stock pop? I believe those potential investors would first look at the same data I did and reached a wait and see conclusion. I further believe (or maybe I should say - hope) the execs at NBS would also realize the same thing and would not have made those presentations unless they had reason to believe what they would be releasing for the 3rd quarter would show a substantial improvement over the 2nd. It makes sense to me that presenting at these conferences would do substantially more harm than good if, at the time, they knew the 3rd quarter was going to present more questions and challenges about the companies immediate financial status. I hope the execs at NBS reached the same conclusion before making the decision to present.

    Do you have any thoughts about this before they release?

    We should all know the answer when they do.

    Thanks and keep up the good work you do,

    Rick
    Nov 11 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeoStem CEO Dr. Smith Talks PCT Potential And Explains Recent Bullish Developments [View article]
    Hi Brian,

    I am long NBS and a firm believer in the great potential of both
    their products and their stock. Two quick questions:

    1. Their 3rd quarter should be released soon - do you have any
    expectations?

    2. The longer the Suzhou Erye Pharmaceuticals close drags on the more nervous I get that something may be going wrong. Do I
    have any cause for concern?
    Nov 7 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
12 Comments
6 Likes