Bob K.

Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources

What is fascinating to me is how fast long term predictive models have broken down with those who have the most vested interest in their accuracy, the quants. And in all due respect to ECRI, who are probably the best econometrics firm, the models are on new ground. Money flows are moving at breathtaking speed and as we have just seen, and can seize up at a moments notice. How one can be so certain that there is no recession looming is not thinking through their risk/reward approach to investing. Oh by the way, you can lose alot of money in a growth recession, as well, think 2000.