Bob K.

The Decade of Complacency and Gold

To Malkiel, gold has already out performed equities over the last five years, so I do not get your point. This equity move from 04to 06 is obviously counter trend and people moved out of gold to capture it. Reasonable strategy. As for the price of gold, it does not move much, it is all else that moves in opposition to it. Martyrisk raises the right comment. What would the Asians and Arabs and for that matter the Russians want, USD that we can debase or a hard asset. You may hate gold, but history tells us that it is a hedge against financial assets, I see no evidence of that being repealed.

Bob

Tale of Two Economies: U.S. a 'SubPrime Sell'; China a 'Strategic Buy'

I absolutely agree. Let's see a stress test on the Chinese economy when America goes into recession. I suspect their economy will come to a schreeching halt. The Chinese only run a surplus with us of the major economies in the world. As we go, they go. They will be unable to manufacture enough jobs and profits will evaporate.

S&P A/D Reading Third Worst in Ten Years - Rebound Likely Tomorrow

To Tintin, maybe not this time as short interest was falling prior to this selloff. We may get some follow through tomorrow. Bob

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

You make great points but in all due respect, the level of interest rates are irrelavent. That has been arbritraged by higher asset prices, it is the new normal. What is important to note is the ability of the consumer to carry his/her debt burden in relation to their income, their discretionary income. They are increasingly are having difficulty doing just that. The status quo traps them over time. Spending will continue to erode, along with housing prices.

I have many years experience in investing in Real estate, M & A and in stocks. I also do/done some asset backed loans. I have never seen such a deterioration in personal balance sheets as they are now. And lest people think that real estate prices are flat to a little down, I encourage people to calculate asset prices when sold at distress (foreclosures, etc.) the true price is much lower 10%-17% off of the published rates where I have lended. Why that is important is with rising and accelerating foreclosure rates, they compete with other sellers and will continue to force down prices until they abate. this is while the economy is good.

I advise caution. We are in the early innings.

Bob

Real Estate Gauge: Private Residential Investment as a Percentage of GDP

Can you gragh a correlation between this data and housing prices?

Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!

Thanks, I will. Have a great night

Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!

You are obviously a very successful trader....most are not. I am a technical based investor, but as you know, the macro helps you pick the sectors where you will shorten your odds, but maybe you just follow Cramer's picks. Having said that...I believe Barry is early, but correct...but why are you mad at him, your a trader, his insight shouldn't hurt you. His insights have helped me put on shorts or puts on Apple, Whirlpool, Google, Group one, Nutrisystems, and Childrens place, (all but NTRI, GPI are closed booked profits) as a trader you cannot help to see the deterioration in their TSV, and Moneystreams. And I bailed on oil after three years this fall. Good luck to you. Throw out your picks, love to learn from you.

Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!

Maybe, maybe not...that is not where you will get burned. The consumer drives 60-70 percent of GDP, if they are continually denied access to the cash in their homes, they will need to stop spending(starting to happen), extract from non secured sources (Stephanie Pomboy from Market Mavens has recently reported on the significant increase in credit card debt), which is a short term fix. Thus setting up a significant slow down, that the fed can't easily fix by lowering rates (why, he does not control the ten year, which affects the Home equity rates, won't raise housing prices, and non secured debt is relatively immune to fed policy), thus a recession is in the cards sooner than later. By telling people all is now OK when in fact it is not, dooms those who think it is safe to extend themselves in the housing and / or the stock market on a false premise.

Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!

Barry is absolutely correct, the media, power brokers, and the industry has been happy talking the housing sector for a better part of a year. They obviously fear a collapse in sentiment which will take the legs out from the market. By any measurement, housing prices are extremely overvalued in the aggregate and will continue to fall as people give up. We have two major overhangs to digest, the ratio of investors to homeowners are out of whack (18% of buyers from 2003 to 2006 Vs. a long term 10% average) these people do not have the cash flow to maintain their positions and will sell as they run out of cash, further suppressing the market and the sub prime borrower which has been discussed previously. Don't get caught in the bear trap, this will be long and painful. Bob