Bob K.

Did I Just See a Dead Cat Bounce?

It stopped bouncing today

Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources

What is fascinating to me is how fast long term predictive models have broken down with those who have the most vested interest in their accuracy, the quants. And in all due respect to ECRI, who are probably the best econometrics firm, the models are on new ground. Money flows are moving at breathtaking speed and as we have just seen, and can seize up at a moments notice. How one can be so certain that there is no recession looming is not thinking through their risk/reward approach to investing. Oh by the way, you can lose alot of money in a growth recession, as well, think 2000.

New Gallop Poll: Americans Feel the Economy is Getting Worse

To Matthew, I would agree with your scenario, but cannot see it happening politically. The left won't let more refineries get built, and now the farmers will not let the ethanol gravy train slip away. Plus, China and India are going to suck up all excess soft commodities to keep their middle class calm.

New Gallop Poll: Americans Feel the Economy is Getting Worse

To Willjrd, have you done any work on the persistency of inflation or how the Fed reacts to inflation when the core inflation is much lower than overall inflation? Your charts suggest to me that the Fed is behind the curve and the consumer is in a bind. Looks like a bit of stagflation to me. (also ironic if true, as both periods came about due to an unfunded war). Thanks

Tale of Two Economies: U.S. a 'SubPrime Sell'; China a 'Strategic Buy'

I absolutely agree. Let's see a stress test on the Chinese economy when America goes into recession. I suspect their economy will come to a schreeching halt. The Chinese only run a surplus with us of the major economies in the world. As we go, they go. They will be unable to manufacture enough jobs and profits will evaporate.

S&P A/D Reading Third Worst in Ten Years - Rebound Likely Tomorrow

To Tintin, maybe not this time as short interest was falling prior to this selloff. We may get some follow through tomorrow. Bob