Valley Boy

Getting Technical: The Humpy Trend Lives

Since we managed to make it through the September-October period without having a market crash, I would guess that the market could continue to hump along until such time as the American dollar strenghtens, interest rates move upward and the yield curve slope starts to level. We need to keep a close watch on those types of matters.

Food Insecurity: Another Measure of Economic Distress Skyrockets

Should we expect collective farms?


On Nov 18 01:08 PM T.Stamps wrote:

> And now we have an administration that doesn't believe in
> American exceptionalism. Doesn't believe in individual rights,<br/>free...
> and liberties. But wants marxism.

Why Government Deficits Don't Affect Interest Rates

I'm trying to follow the author's reasoning with an historic example.
I can remember that in the 1983-1986 time period inflation decreased to the extent it was called disinflation, interest rates crashed to a low level, the stock market shot up at a reasonable clip, the economy staged a healthy recovery---and yet, the federal government borrowed heavily to drastically increase the budget deficit with the military buildup and more social spending.
Maybe there is a bright economist who could explain to us why inflation did not increase in that period with the increased federal budget deficits. I wonder if it really was the bond yields which would explained the apparent discrepancy.

Anecdotal Evidence that a Stronger Recovery Is Afoot - For Some

Yes, things are much worse here and there than most economic data suggest for inland California. There is a nagging drought problem which has sidelined much of the farm economy as evidenced by the increasing number of fallow fields. Inland California needs more dependable water supplies and more efficient water infrastructures. There are only a couple of ports in inland California established for the benefit of the export economy; the economy around those ports are dependent on the relative value of the dollar. Inland California needs a lot of work on repairing and improving our highways and railroads especially grade separations. The state capital located in inland California isn't doing as well as in past decades because of the necessary government funding cuts. We could certainly benefit from lower taxes and less government waste. There are some pockets of economic recovery in well-to-do suburbs and those areas servicing universities and hospitals.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

It must be interesting to have those problems in western Florida. In the interior of California, we have very high unemployment for "menial work", lots of discount grocery stores and relatively expensive gas.


On Nov 08 12:34 PM rennert wrote:

> How do we know those high unemployment numbers are true. I can not
> find a handy man or tree trimmer anywhere at the moment. All have
> too much work piled up. They are trying to justify the low interest
> rates for Wallstreet while our food prices are going through the
> roof.

How Warren Buffett Is Smarter than the G20

It might be interesting to look at the rail networks of the major railroads and judge how well they serve the commodities investing theme in addition to the emerging markets investing theme.
For instance, Canadian National Railway is another railroad that has a strong network based in commodity producing areas with strategically located ports. Their network has hubs at Chicago, Toronto, and Edmonton with rail lines going through the main agricultural and energy-rich areas of North America. Their network includes ports at New Orleans and Mobile which face the Panama Canal and the Latin American market, Halifax which faces the European market, and Vancouver and Prince Rupert which face the Pacific Rim and East Asian markets.

'Buy American' Horror Stories in Canada

The "Buy American" provisions should be reworked in order to include Canadian products on the same preference as American products. There is no reason to exclude Canadian products.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

Since we have a huge labor surplus in this country, we do not need additional population, especially the illegal sort.


On Nov 08 11:25 AM flakca wrote:

> A rising average age is the problem. Once our average age reached
> 37, then more people are thought to be withdrawing from savings,
> than are saving for retirement.
> Less people saving means less money for investment. Less money for
> investment means declining stock market, etc. etc.
> So the fifty million people who were removed from the population
> statistics by abortion, and who would have kept that average age
> significantly lower, are to blame (or those who exercised the right
> of choice).
> Politicians cannot fix this in the short term.
> If you include the children of those aborted since 1972, then you
> might be looking at something more like 60 million.
> The excessive number of children during the 50's kept the lawns mowed
> in the 60's and 70's. Now that is mostly done by illegal immigrants.
>
> Nature abhors a vacuum.
> The law of unintended consequences.
> There is no way out, short of a population boom.

Gold Transforming into a Completely Demonetized Wealth Asset

Gold has increased in value to where it is a currency mostly traded by institutions and deep-pocketed investors. This means that most individuals would buy silver as a substitute for gold. Most people cannot afford gold but they can afford silver. I would judge that silver therefore has better investment prospects than gold.

The Problem of Where to Invest

If you are very worried about not having any clear idea about where to direct your funds, you might consider parking them in Canadian banks for the time being.

What If We Invested $680 Billion in Infrastructure?

We need to reduce spending on defense and infrastructure and use the savings to pay down our national debt. There is too much waste in defense spending on weapons we will never use and much of the infrastructure spending turned out to be on projects which were not "shovel ready."

America, The Nanny State

You make the best sense. Let's reform and strengthen Medicare and Medicaid for those who actually need medical assistance. We can concentrate on combating fraud, double billing, and abuse and deny coverage to those who don't qualify under those two programs.


On Nov 02 11:11 AM fwi wrote:

> A very thorough and well organized article. I would like to raise
> one point that I have yet to see anyone else raise anywhere.
>
> If Medicare has been in place to pay for healthcare for the elderly,
> and Medicaid has been in place to take care of the poor and children
> of the poor, then why has noone asked why Medicaid has not already
> done its job? ANd if it hasn't done its job of covering the poor,
> then shouldn't we first make certain that Medicaid completes its
> task before we create a another giant bureaucracy? Shouldn't we first
> discover why Medicaid has not already covered these people? And if
> there are good reasons why, then should not we address those first?
>
>
> It is almost like Medicaid does not exist. To me it is a nobrainer.
> Use Medicaid to complete the humane coverage of the poor and their
> children, and then..stop.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

The starting base for studying the price movements of gold should be set to December 1974 when President Ford legalized the purchase of gold by American citizens. Any starting base with a timeline prior to that should not count because the gold price and gold transactions were strictly controlled by our benevolent government.
For an article about the legalization, see time.com archives for:
COMMODITIES: Get Ready! Get Set! Gold!
Time Magazine, Monday Jan.06, 1975

Recession Hardship Is Painful, But Can Be Beneficial

The recovery can proceed at a decent rate in spite of the government stimulus programs in some areas but not in other areas. The areas which would be most self-sufficient and ordinarily prosperous would be the areas most likely to deal with the stimulus programs as only a small factor in the ongoing economic progress.
I can believe certain areas of Southern California are rebounding from the current recession. Those areas would be the same places which came through the severe 1982 recession with hardly a scratch. These areas would be Southern Orange County including Calafia Beach, Northern San Diego County, the Palm Desert area of Coachella Valley, the Hollywood Hills including Beverly Hills, the Cucamonga area and the Pasadena area.

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

I've read somewhere that increased Starbucks sales would indicate positive consumer sentiment at least in the early part of a genuine recovery. If $4 coffees are beginning to sale briskly at Starbucks, then chances are that $50 clothing will begin to sell somewhat at Macy's.


On Nov 01 12:10 PM thotdoc wrote:

> I love it. A macro economics discussion ends up in a conversation
> about what is going on in one Macy's. No wonder many people have
> difficulty making decisions about how to invest.