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Valley Boy

Valley Boy
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  • California on the Brink? [View article]
    I suspect you are correct. But even so, I've run into well-off
    people who honestly believe that it is their patriotic duty to pay
    the high taxes and support the system such as it is.

    On May 03 01:45 AM Homer II wrote:

    > "..California voters still need to be more aware of the urgent fiscal
    > problems and take them into account. Costly initiative measures on
    > the ballot still get approved by the voters."
    > that's because there are more "freeloaders" than taxpayers in CA.
    > I also live in one of those kind of states.
    > Only way that will ever be solved is to legislate "voter classes"
    > like share classes of stock: if you actually pay taxes, then you
    > get to vote on revenue propositions; otherwise you cannot. What are
    > the chances that sort of novel law could be passed in CA tho? HAHA!
    May 3 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California on the Brink? [View article]
    California voters still need to be more aware of the urgent fiscal
    problems and take them into account. Costly initiative measures
    on the ballot still get approved by the voters.
    May 3 12:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall of Waiting Cash Could Drive Equities Higher [View article]
    It looks like this recession will be W-shaped. I agree that W-
    shaped recessions are rare, the last two of them being the
    1980-1982 debacle and the long Great Depression. The longer
    the recession, and the more complex the underlying economic
    factors, the more likely it will be W-shaped. We currently
    have a relief rally going on because more investors are convinced
    we are not replicating the 1930s scenario. At least half of the
    economic problems have come to light and are being dealt with
    one way or another. There is ample liquidity being fed into the
    economy and some of it is finding its way into the stock market. However, there are still some very serious problems coming to fruition over the next several years: banks will still be reluctant to loan out their reserves, certain mortage types are scheduled to balloon, foreign investing in this country will slacken somewhat, fiscal and monetary imbalances will have to be addressed, deleveraging will take time to play out, a generation if starting
    to retire and is more interested in downsizing, etc.
    That said, there are certainly opportunities to profit in the current circumstances if one sells some shares. There will be market dips available coming up for investing fresh monies into the domestic stock market. The dips will happen due to frustration over the
    slow stop-and-start recovery. It will be a hard grind.
    There will be better opportunities in foreign shares. Many foreign
    countries are full of young people interested in growth.

    On May 02 11:17 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

    > But that may not happen. The S&P 500 could go to 1000, pause
    > for a few months, and then just keep going higher. Double dip recessions
    > are very rare. Once the US economy emerges from recession, it's hard
    > to stop the momentum as greed & confidence returns.
    May 3 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing About This Economy Is Surprising [View article]
    If the folks producing the charts were not interested in history,
    there wouldn't be any charts.

    On Apr 30 10:12 AM Mutual Fund Wealth wrote:

    > Waaaay too much history here folks. Get with the program and learn
    > how to invest wisely no matter how the global markets are performing
    > at any given time. There are always sectors of the market place that
    > perform well no matter what type of economic conditions exist. Times
    > change and investment strategies must also change accordingly.<br/>
    > Doug T.....The mutual fund guy
    Apr 30 03:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors See 'Green Shoots' in 1Q GDP Manure [View article]
    I view Hoover's policies somewhat similar to Roosevelt's and
    Bush's policies somewhat similar to Obama's. I agree that the
    natural clearing actions haven't occured. I'm not hopeful that
    they will get a chance to occur for many years to come. So
    rather than waiting for the perfect scenario to occur, I'll be only
    interested in bottomfishing the market dips. It is noted that of the
    four administrations mentioned, the markets went up and down
    and sideways in three of them. Only one had an explosion and
    Apr 30 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors See 'Green Shoots' in 1Q GDP Manure [View article]
    I might help sometimes to study the most extreme situation of
    the Great Depression. The stock market bottomed in July 1932
    ahead of the deepest low in the economy in March 1933. The last
    leg down of the 1929 Crash occured in the April 1932-
    July 1932 time frame. If one invested some monies earlier in
    1932, he or she would have still have made a very decent return
    in the resultant stock market boom of 1932-1933. My best guess
    if that there has been enough punishment given the current stock
    market that it may well be worthwhile to buy the dips going forward
    but not worthwhile to chase after the boomlets.

    On Apr 29 06:09 PM conceptwizard wrote:

    > I dont have what it takes to invest when reason says otherwise. The
    > numbers just dont tsupport the advance. Good Luck to those who dare,
    > invest careful, and beware!
    Apr 29 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Double Digit Growth in Emerging Markets [View article]
    The various countries are finding out that they don't necessarily
    need to depend on American consumers to support their economies.
    They probably will show more confidence than we do in working
    out of this recession. We'll be sure to watch the Baltic Dry Index
    for confirmation of this nascent trend.
    Apr 29 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandemic and the DJIA: Looking Back at 1957-1958 [View article]
    I agree. It was a good solid run in the stock averages from that time until 1966 with a hiccup in 1962.

    On Apr 29 08:55 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

    > I agree here. This is an excellent buying opportunity a these flu
    > fears are vastly overblown.
    > ----------------------...
    > Notably, 1958 remains one of the Dow's "Ten Best Years." The low
    > formed in the 1957 pandemic (several weeks after Sputnik's launch)
    > remained the most significant negative market event until the "1962
    > crash" almost 4.5 years later. The market bottom coincident with
    > the worst week for US influenza deaths was also an excellent and
    > timely market entry point.
    Apr 29 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Deficit Stimulus Spending Help or Hurt Economic Recovery? [View article]
    If the government wants to be constructive about this situation,
    it can reduce taxes for domestic manufacturers and, at the same
    time, slap a tax penalty on the manufacturers who send their
    operations out of our country and/or import foreign workers.
    Apr 29 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Consumer Confidence Index Rockets Higher [View article]
    There is a lot of bargain hunting at the discount stores
    in the town I live in. There is little traffic at the stores offering full
    retail prices. The consumer seems confident that there are
    bargains to be made.
    Apr 29 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Ways to Cut Our Debt and Advance Obama's Agenda [View article]
    People are free to believe whatever they want
    and decide for themselves what is true. That is
    what makes a market.

    On Apr 28 04:13 PM quick wrote:

    > jpiretti,
    > You are absolutely right! Hurricane Katrina did in fact cause a bunch
    > of oil spills! Too bad these "authors" at SA can just write whatever
    > the heck they want to regardless if it's true or not. Well, I guess
    > as long as they get to advance their agenda, the truth doesn't really
    > matter!
    > People, be careful what you read on this site! It's not like a newspaper
    > that is occasionally held accountable for the things they publish.
    > www.katrinadestruction.../
    Apr 28 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Ways to Cut Our Debt and Advance Obama's Agenda [View article]
    It makes better economic sense to concentrate on the oil and gas fields which are much easier to exploit more than the deep sea fields. I'm referring to the Bakken, Fayetteville, Marcellus Shales
    plus extracting more oil and gas from older fields with the new technology. Geothermal offers the best long-term technical strategy in the green energy arena. We have an abundance of it out West. It runs full time, doesn't leave a huge real estate
    presence and involves minimal evironmental consequences.
    Reducing the taxes on entrepreneurs while raising taxes on
    offshoring labor, unhealthy snacks, and unhealthy drugs seems
    like intelligent policy.
    Let's get a grip on our debt load, too.
    Apr 28 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swedbank's Q1 Results Reveal Further Problems in the Baltics [View article]
    It sounds like the IMF needs to liberalize its terms at least for
    the duration of this economic crises. Peaceful democratic
    countries (such as the Baltics) should be given extra consideration
    by the IMF as part of its terms.
    Apr 27 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu and the Mexican Narco State: No Time to Be Long [View article]
    Stratfor and some military analysts suggest Mexico to be a failing or declining state. Silver mining companies operating in central Mexico
    suggest otherwise. This situation bears watching.
    Apr 27 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The End (of the Recession) Is Near [View article]
    I can't but notice the coincidence of 30+ years of flat wages
    plus 30+ years of increasing foreign competition in manufacturing
    along with increasing importation of goods into our country.
    The presidential trip to China in 1972 and the oil embargo in 1973
    now seem like watershed/fork-in-the-... events.

    On Apr 27 10:49 AM Allan Frain wrote:

    > Real wages were flat for 30+ years and consumer spending rose to
    > 72% of GDP on credit. Credit has stopped flowing and unemployment
    > has spiked, knocking the legs out of consumer spending. Someone pull
    > their nose out of the charts and suggest just what sort of spending
    > profile will backdrop the recovery. Note: a federal deficit at 13%
    > of GDP does not constitute recovery and represents roughly double
    > the level demonstrated to destroy any economy that tries it.
    Apr 27 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment