Suncatcher

Game On for the Markets?

Watch out below!

Job Losses Are Not the Problem

It is very simplistic but worth mentioning anyway. If we want to diminish the power of the large= don't reward them with your business whenever possible. The closer you get to individual - individual the stronger our roots get. For instance don't do your banking with the big guys go to a small local bank even though it may cost a bit more. I won't belabor the point but you can "buy small" and do a bit to change things. It's more rewarding than feeling powerless.

What's Plausible for the Fiscal Outlook?

It might be a good start if we allowed the federal government to do ONLY those things expressly required by the constitution. A radical idea I know.
Or I guess we can hope that presidents and dictators have a special tv channel where the commercials offer "get your debt negotiated in half" . "Our firm negotiated on behalf of Iceland and we got their debt reduced by half! Don't suffer those harassing calls from the IMF. Call us for serious debt reduction!"
Or possibly those other commercials: " Turn your unwanted gold in for cash! Send us that gold collecting dust in Fort Knox and we'll mail you top dollar within 24 hours!! Use that old bling to pay for that health care program you've always wanted."

I just hope the president watches tv, or we could be sunk.

The 1929 DJIA and the 2000 Nasdaq

Is it a reasonable comparison to compare the tech bubble (more industry specific) to an overall economic bubble? The 30's and present represent a more general economic problem then a sector specific problem. It does make for an interesting chart but I am not sure how apropos it is.

Job Losses Are Not the Problem

That's right. Last week one of the FED branch leaders let slip in a speech that the real number was 16%. I don't think there was much said regarding that. I'm sure he was the proverbial skunk at the garden party.


On Aug 30 03:11 PM sharonsj wrote:

> I don't agree with the numbers. I don't think allowances have been
> made for the annual increases in: population, graduates looking for
> jobs, older people who can't live on their current retirement income,
> etc. Otherwise you wouldn't have many hundreds of people applying
> for a single job. I read about some new company that needed to hire
> 500 workers and got 15,000 applications. Oh, and the unemployment
> statistics are manipulated; true unemployment is probably closer
> to 15% or more.

Job Losses Are Not the Problem

Karen Consumer has a good point. During this deflationary cycle you can be considered employed if you are making 1/2 of what you did one year ago. In real terms that is 1/2 a job. Which would mean you would have to work two full time jobs to make last years life style. Which also means you are 1/2 the consumer you used to be. So not only is the unemployed number bad but the employed number may be getting worse ( due to depressed wages). Good luck to all.

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

It has been shown recently that GS is advising their big money investors to take one course of action, then tell their little retail people something completely different. I looked up "moral hazard" and the definition was: Goldman Saks!

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

HMMMM, I wonder why the FED is fighting Bloomberg in court regarding access to TARP records. They argued something like the information could cause a run on the banks. Well, well, well. I'm glad they just have our best interest in mind.

And by the way they have been ordered to comply on Monday. I'm sure they start looking for the documents on Monday, they may, or may not find them in a timely manner. Then again the FED probably doesn't have any lawyers working on a stay or appeal. Reassuring they are looking out for us.

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

Ok, lets agree there is work to be done. Hopefully your next post will include the formula so I can roll up my sleeves and get to work with you. By the way, I have never been a typical consumer. I have always saved more than I make, and I only have borrowed to buy a house. Not bragging, just letting you know that to change my behavior would be to eat out never instead of four times a year. Waiting for suggestions.


On Aug 29 09:30 AM Stelly wrote:

> Forrest for the trees Larry. Its not Bulls against Bears in some
> massive video game of technical analysis and opinion surveys... Look
> at the fundamentals and ask yourself how much has really changed
> and you will find your answer.
>
> Has debt been reduced or moved from one pocket to another (less economically
> efficient) pocket? Has demand grown without the help of (again economically
> inefficient) government subsidies? Are people and companies being
> incented to behave in the way that made the current crisis worse
> in the first place? Do Freddie Fannie and now Ginnie still exist?
> Are the remaining banks even bigger than before and even more likely
> to be bailed out next time around? Is the consumer about to be creamed
> by a combination of inflation, increased taxes and high unemployment?
> Come on guys... Forget the "L" "W" or "V" and lets talk about fixing
> this thing instead of pretending that our economy is simply an act
> of faith that needs to be restored by cheer leading.
>
> I apologize - this rant could have been posted to many of the articles
> posted this week but I chose this one because discussion of corrections
> and opinion polls piss me off when there are so many hard decisions
> to make and work to be done.

Market's Continuing Theme: Sell the Dollar and Buy Stocks

All the sentiment indicators are high- way high. If you venture out into the main media and general public a majority are claiming the crisis is over. That is the set up for the correction.

The Lunacy Surrounding AIG's Stock Price

The bailouts are to financials what steroids are to athletes. The minute you stop indulging you will end up below the starting point.

Why Higher Deficits Don't Mean Higher Income Tax Rates

I am pretty sure most of the posters here have a better view of this then the author. I will only add the following:
Comparing the current geopolitical/ financial world to post WW2 would require you bomb out most of the industrialized world. And taxation has crept into every nook and cranny of what we do. Comparing income tax is misleading, unless you weight it with every other tax as well.

What Can Stop This Market Rally?

Significant inflation is still a ways out. We will first see more deflation.

What is going to cause the next market correction will be something that isn't purely a financial issue. I predict something like a resurgance in the Swine Flu scare. That will cause the scales to fall from a lot of peoples eyes. Then they will see the economic abyss yawning wider. This will cause the herd to turn.

Second possibility is that the economic masters are crazy like foxes and this will all work out.

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

Rick, I suppose one mans' pessimism is another mans' realism. I must admit I am presently feeling a mite pessimistic and I would argue with reasonable cause. As I interact with my two year old granddaughter I realize her future isn't as positive as it should be and that my parents gave myself and my generation much more to be thankful for than we are doing for those that come after us. If that is pessimism or realism we will each decide.
As far as my market performance goes... I have made a little in the last few months, but I have recently taken direct control of my investments so I have been mainly waiting in cash until I felt comfortable with a trading strategy that suits me. I am reaching a point where I will start employing what I have been learning and will have a better evaluation for you in about a year. Thanks for asking.


On Aug 25 12:26 PM Rick Urban wrote:

> Suncatcher, thanks for sharing your pessimism with us.
> Could you also tell us how you did in this market so far?

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

The administration has played this situation like a fiddle. Today they announce Bernanke gets redeployed at the same time they announce the unemployment and recession will be worse in the short run than expected. And they say the bad news is because the situation they inherited is worse than previously expected. They markets continue to rise. When the strings on the fiddle start to break there will be no holding this back. The higher it goes the further it falls. I hope all the cheerleaders are drinking their own cool-aide and stay long- way long.