Paul Denlinger's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/3895/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/110002-reports-indicate-china-s-ecosystem-is-too-far-gone-to-support-a-growing-economy?source=feed#comment-325302 325302
And you say that "China will do the same?" Try explaining your logic to China's leaders today. They are not cool about the situation.

Get real.]]> Wed, 10 Dec 2008 07:47:43 -0500
And you say that "China will do the same?" Try explaining your logic to China's leaders today. They are not cool about the situation.

Get real.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88698-china-s-internet-user-base-is-growing-faster-than-mobile?source=feed#comment-221715 221715 The comparison between mobile and Internet communications will soon be rendered moot as the two merge, as they have on the iPhone platform. It is estimated that there are about 800K cracked iPhones in use in China. Although the iPhone is a niche device now, it would be safe to say that Apple will come out with cheaper models in the future, and other companies, such as Nokia, will also abandon WAP as 3G gets rolled out in China. Eventually, mobile and the Internet will be one and the same, and the comparisons will be completely dated. If you come to Shanghai and Beijing and just walk around, you will see that that is already taking place.]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 16:40:55 -0400 The comparison between mobile and Internet communications will soon be rendered moot as the two merge, as they have on the iPhone platform. It is estimated that there are about 800K cracked iPhones in use in China. Although the iPhone is a niche device now, it would be safe to say that Apple will come out with cheaper models in the future, and other companies, such as Nokia, will also abandon WAP as 3G gets rolled out in China. Eventually, mobile and the Internet will be one and the same, and the comparisons will be completely dated. If you come to Shanghai and Beijing and just walk around, you will see that that is already taking place.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86185-china-american-style-vs-latin-american-style-crises?source=feed#comment-213825 213825 www.chinavortex.com/20.../

And that Alibaba's Jack Ma is taking a very pessimistic tone:
www.chinavortex.com/20.../
]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:39:08 -0400 www.chinavortex.com/20.../

And that Alibaba's Jack Ma is taking a very pessimistic tone:
www.chinavortex.com/20.../
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85636-e-tailing-report-out-on-e-commerce-in-china?source=feed#comment-208676 208676
It would be really good if market research organizations offered a higher degree of clarity and granularity re reports on the Chinese Internet, and even better if reports were attributed to individuals who are willing to stand behind the methods and data. While various sources support the general upward trend, it would be better if this could be supported by reliable data.

With China's very solid Internet growth, market research firms in the country can afford to do better, and should do better. This would help to bridge the gap of understanding between China and the rest of the world.]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:25:41 -0400
It would be really good if market research organizations offered a higher degree of clarity and granularity re reports on the Chinese Internet, and even better if reports were attributed to individuals who are willing to stand behind the methods and data. While various sources support the general upward trend, it would be better if this could be supported by reliable data.

With China's very solid Internet growth, market research firms in the country can afford to do better, and should do better. This would help to bridge the gap of understanding between China and the rest of the world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85113-a-u-s-china-comparison?source=feed#comment-207010 207010
The next stage of growth though will be much more difficult. There are signs that the natives (Chinese population) are getting restless. The environment has been horribly degraded, making many cities barely liveable. China has invested in a transport infrastructure based on cheap coal and oil which was copied from the US in the nineties.

Yes, China has done very well so far, but just as recent events in the US over the past year have shown us, things can turn south very fast, even for the healthiest looking countries.]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:07:55 -0400
The next stage of growth though will be much more difficult. There are signs that the natives (Chinese population) are getting restless. The environment has been horribly degraded, making many cities barely liveable. China has invested in a transport infrastructure based on cheap coal and oil which was copied from the US in the nineties.

Yes, China has done very well so far, but just as recent events in the US over the past year have shown us, things can turn south very fast, even for the healthiest looking countries.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85173-on-china-and-what-the-world-wont-see-during-the-olympics?source=feed#comment-206870 206870 The reforms have created huge wealth, but there are severe prices for this prosperity. Now they are becoming more apparent.]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 11:02:50 -0400 The reforms have created huge wealth, but there are severe prices for this prosperity. Now they are becoming more apparent.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84742-china-s-impending-financial-crisis?source=feed#comment-204381 204381
The picture I get is that there will be major steady rises in all commodities, especially food, and price stagnation in real estate. Already there is major pressure on RE developers in China, who are having to live with increasing interest rates and a public which is becoming more wary about investing in housing in the face of rising prices across the board.

In the face of this, it may even become likely that the Chinese government will come down hard on "speculators" who play the yuan rise. The purpose would be to make an example of them and discourage the practice.]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:56:20 -0400
The picture I get is that there will be major steady rises in all commodities, especially food, and price stagnation in real estate. Already there is major pressure on RE developers in China, who are having to live with increasing interest rates and a public which is becoming more wary about investing in housing in the face of rising prices across the board.

In the face of this, it may even become likely that the Chinese government will come down hard on "speculators" who play the yuan rise. The purpose would be to make an example of them and discourage the practice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/26033-has-google-failed-in-china?source=feed#comment-81068 81068
Baidu's greatest danger is that it has to dance to Wall Street every quarter; Google has enough money in the bank that it really doesn't have to.

Another danger is Baidu's reseller policy for ads, which opens it up wide to abuse. This policy provides short-term revenue growth, but hurts its long-term credibility. It would be comparatively easy for a Chinese version of Google Adwords and Adsense to undermine this once all the pieces, including people, are in place.]]> Mon, 05 Feb 2007 18:44:53 -0500
Baidu's greatest danger is that it has to dance to Wall Street every quarter; Google has enough money in the bank that it really doesn't have to.

Another danger is Baidu's reseller policy for ads, which opens it up wide to abuse. This policy provides short-term revenue growth, but hurts its long-term credibility. It would be comparatively easy for a Chinese version of Google Adwords and Adsense to undermine this once all the pieces, including people, are in place.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/23375-investing-in-china-s-online-gaming-sector?source=feed#comment-79595 79595
As a matter of fact, I have stopped following the online gaming companies just for this reason.

And for your information, I was in involved in arranging Shanda's seed-round funding.

请你先看清楚再作评论。

Paul Denlinger]]> Wed, 03 Jan 2007 15:11:02 -0500
As a matter of fact, I have stopped following the online gaming companies just for this reason.

And for your information, I was in involved in arranging Shanda's seed-round funding.

请你先看清楚再作评论。

Paul Denlinger]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/23375-investing-in-china-s-online-gaming-sector?source=feed#comment-79591 79591
With the rapid rise of China's domestic A-share market in 2006, one can make MUCH better returns on a steady basis, with a lot less risk than the online gaming market.]]> Wed, 03 Jan 2007 13:28:25 -0500
With the rapid rise of China's domestic A-share market in 2006, one can make MUCH better returns on a steady basis, with a lot less risk than the online gaming market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/22946-tom-online-must-focus-on-products-connections-don-t-ensure-success?source=feed#comment-79382 79382
Add to that virtually all of the management people in the US don't know Chinese, and don't know enough to hand it off to people who do know Chinese. It is worth noting that most American corporations, until very recently, have put no added value on foreign work experience and linguistic knowledge.

And when they fail, they inevitably blame the Chinese market, saying that they lack connections. "This proves that the Chinese market is biased against western corporation," they inevitably proclaim in a loud chorus!

This is why many US corporations will continue to fail in China, and management in China will continue to localize. It isn't that the Chinese market is biased against western corporations; it's just that western companies which do not know Chinese and are not willing to learn from Chinese consumers have no value-added to offer in this growing market.]]> Sun, 24 Dec 2006 14:12:37 -0500
Add to that virtually all of the management people in the US don't know Chinese, and don't know enough to hand it off to people who do know Chinese. It is worth noting that most American corporations, until very recently, have put no added value on foreign work experience and linguistic knowledge.

And when they fail, they inevitably blame the Chinese market, saying that they lack connections. "This proves that the Chinese market is biased against western corporation," they inevitably proclaim in a loud chorus!

This is why many US corporations will continue to fail in China, and management in China will continue to localize. It isn't that the Chinese market is biased against western corporations; it's just that western companies which do not know Chinese and are not willing to learn from Chinese consumers have no value-added to offer in this growing market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13336-china-s-new-obsession-with-blogs-and-how-companies-can-benefit?source=feed#comment-54027 54027 news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/te...]]> Thu, 20 Jul 2006 11:41:16 -0400 news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/te...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13336-china-s-new-obsession-with-blogs-and-how-companies-can-benefit?source=feed#comment-53928 53928
Since the commercialization of media is not as pervasive in China as in the US, there have been many disputes about who owns the revenue from advertising for the few popular blogs. This was why Xu Jinglei took her blog off the Sina network.

For the service providers who provide blogging tools, blogs provide valuable real estate which ads can be run on. The most outstanding success in this area has been Google's twin massive revenue-generating services, Adwords and Adsense. The winners are Sina, Sohu, Netease and Tencent. These companies are able to digest the huge ad budgets being thrown their way by ad agencies.

But ad agencies themselves are an old-world business whose revenue structure is under assault, as is attested to by WPP's Martin Sorrel in this quote: www.ft.com/cms/s/89c1d...

The simple fact is that the Internet is bound to change the rules, and that Google is the one company which is best positioned to lead: richardbrandt.blogs.co...

Because Baidu is perceived as a Chinese company and is protected by the Chinese government, in much the same way as Sina is, it will be a leader instead of Google.

Then, any ad buyer will have a full set of advertising and information tools at his fingertips, enabling him to make all of his ad buying decisions. There will no longer be any intermediaries. Read here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]> Wed, 19 Jul 2006 22:03:40 -0400
Since the commercialization of media is not as pervasive in China as in the US, there have been many disputes about who owns the revenue from advertising for the few popular blogs. This was why Xu Jinglei took her blog off the Sina network.

For the service providers who provide blogging tools, blogs provide valuable real estate which ads can be run on. The most outstanding success in this area has been Google's twin massive revenue-generating services, Adwords and Adsense. The winners are Sina, Sohu, Netease and Tencent. These companies are able to digest the huge ad budgets being thrown their way by ad agencies.

But ad agencies themselves are an old-world business whose revenue structure is under assault, as is attested to by WPP's Martin Sorrel in this quote: www.ft.com/cms/s/89c1d...

The simple fact is that the Internet is bound to change the rules, and that Google is the one company which is best positioned to lead: richardbrandt.blogs.co...

Because Baidu is perceived as a Chinese company and is protected by the Chinese government, in much the same way as Sina is, it will be a leader instead of Google.

Then, any ad buyer will have a full set of advertising and information tools at his fingertips, enabling him to make all of his ad buying decisions. There will no longer be any intermediaries. Read here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]>