nlipner

Truck Driver Wisdom Suggests Housing Stocks Are Bottoming

Rather than rehash the above excellent rebuttals of your conclusion, I can simply tell you that your assumption that the truck driver "would say that the housing market is in real trouble" is completely off the mark.

Survey after survey shows the average homeowner oblivious to the real declines and believes every bottom call. You sir, have chosen to be a contrarian to your own imaginary everyman and ended up smack in the middle of the pack.

I have an anecdotal story about your everyman: last week while getting my haircut I was told of a clever friend of the hairdresser who is taking advantage of the slump to buy more investment property because of the great paper gains on property bought last year. I didn't have the heart to spout CDO leverage statistics or mention what truely marked the ends of all the other good bubbles of the last 30 years.

Personally I have been ultra-short homebuilders, reits, lenders, etc. for a while now with no regrets.