predictorman1000

China Has Worst Day Since August

I want to say that China led the way down in 08 and will do so again, but my gut says fund managers are taking this market higher in December.

There is too much cash looking for a home, in China as well as in the rest of the world.

Why Agriculture ETF Outlook Looks Promising

I have owned DBA and MOO this year based on the same kind of analysis. The issue is that there are so many other things that are moving faster right now. Also the way all the markets seem to move as one big school of fish effects Ag. Why not wait until we actually do correct (trading faster movers in either direction as we go higher/lower), and then settle in for some long term appreciation (assuming next year is more normal) in Ag?

Cramer's Stop Trading! What the Dell (11/20/09)

Cramer-

Great call ("I don't like it") on SEED the other week! Could be up big today.

What Happens When the Government Stops Propping Up Housing?

I am growing frustrated (over a 20 year period) of each administration leaving a mess for the next. If Obama gets re-elected he will have to deal with some of this, but the long term structural problems created by so much involvement will take a decade to unwind (IF it does get undone).

Housing needs less government involvement. Fannie, Freddie, buying of CMO's- ALL WRONG. I even think the mortgage interest deduction, even though I benefit from it, needs re-thinking.

The 10 Most Annoying Things About This Recession

My favorite comments are the ones the go something like 'well, things actually look pretty bleak for just about everything, but the market's going up anyway so better get in."

Nifty Fifty Redux? Large Cap Strength, Small Cap Weakness

Not sure about this analysis. I have been making money on TZA of late. That would seem counter to this.

Dave Fry: Thoughts on Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs are a great way to play a short term (and this could be a week or two) "hunch". Unless you were a greedy ultrabull you took profits and/or got into cash at varying points in this rally "knowing" that the market was going down or sideways. David Fry's charts showed that this would happen at various points. Unfortunately nothing this year has gone the way it was supposed to, and many people missed the various upticks. Today's charts say the markets (fyi I like TNA, TZA for the lack of manipulation factor) could go up OR down. I'm thinking up, so I'm long.

Using a variety of metrics I get a sense of where a week is going and then go 3X long or short. Once I've got my profits I get out. It's the only strategy that has worked for me post July. Everything else goes up for a number of days, then loses it all, victim of the non-fundamentals market.

Stock Market Returns Lost in Translation

Maybe this is contributing to the lower volumes. No reason for a foreign investor to put his money to work in US markets if he thinks the dollar is moving lower.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

All data and all major earnings are coming in at or above "expections".

I was as surprised as everyone to see the market move strongly higher this week, but not totally surprised- I got out of all my short positions last week.

Moving cautiously back in. I am basing this move on the fact that this is the third minor (very minor) correction since the rally started, and the previous two times it went higher after. My guess is higher again.

How to Use Leveraged and Inverse ETFs

I like the leveraged ETFs but I can't see holding them at all in this market.

There is no telling which way this market is going. This way up and way down in the same day stuff is troubling.

Smart Investing in the Smart Grid

One smart grid speculative play is SATC, which makes power inverters. Has had a bit of a rough time making their numbers over the last year or so, but is reasonably priced and could double.

They currently have a decent revenue stream, have expenses in line, and are past their "dilute to gain some cash" phase.

It could also go nowhere, but as I said, it's speculative.

The DJIA's Dangerous Indexing Philosophy

There is also a deriviative effrct on ETF's particularly leveraged ETF's. You're basing "investment" decisions on a nonreflective average. You can see it lately where the DJIA is frequently in the opposite direction of the overall market tone.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

For the first time since the beginning of the year I can't say whether the market will go up or down from here. Earlier in the year I have been wrong (as in, the market looked like it was going down but then magically went higher), but at least my head was telling me what should happen.

Right now I don't know, and like the author, am on the sidelines.

PS I haven't heard/seen anything from anyone that can convince me either way.

How big is the coming CRE crash? "Huge," says Wilbur Ross, who recommends "extreme caution" before putting money in. "All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously. Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate - the return that investors are demanding to buy a property - are going up."

So why is the IYR and all individual REITs up big this year?

This market is so messed up. Unlike some other questionable sectors that maybe, just maybe, on which a positive spin could be made (say specialty retail or homebuilders), no one, repeat NO ONE, thinks CRE has a chance in the short or mid term. Yet it goes up with everything else.

Ridiculous.

No Surprise: Confidence Among U.S. Consumers Falls Again in October

First, I don't see why anyone is surprised. Not much is getting better for anyone I know. Maybe not any worse, but that doesn't make them (as consumers) get excited about opening the wallet.

Also, while the market went down yesterday in response, it's nothing like how it went up in the "green shoots" days, when a slight blip up got everyone chanting "V shaped recession".

Soon everyone will see we are in for a long slog, and I think the market will correct itself to that view.