Blake Winston

Here Comes the Bull

The issue is right now everyone who got slammed last fall and in early March wants "in" sooo bad that they're calling their brokers demanding that they buy "anything" going up b/c they feel like they're missing out.

...that was verbatim what my freind at JP Morgan's trading desk told me. Many smart brokers w/ experience are cautioning their clients not to start foaming at the mouth trying to chase this.

The fundamentals have to matter at some point.

Earnings Are Not Really Improving

Why is it that everyone seems to "get it" but the market? Nearly nine straight weeks of gains, but predicated on lower-than-average volume and 'paper-profit' earning at some banks and other earnings which are twice as bad as expected (hello U.S. Steal).

It doesn't make sense to me... but I remain bearish and I am short many sectors and while I'm currently behind in several positions I feel fundamantally confident in the overall picture being panted among reasonable people who see past this hype...

Seeds of an Economic Recovery?

everyone is dreaming if they think that the National Bank of Obama & Co. is going to spend out way out of this. I've been screaming at the top of my lungs for weeks that irrespective of recent market performance the fundamentals are just not there.

This article confirms my thoughts. Earnings and balance sheets derived from false indicators are not signs of recovery.

Stay short banks (who have exposure to commercial real estate), materials, and retail).

The American consumer cannot buy us out of recession, and company's cannot grow when they're selling goods at near zero margin or when they're renting more space for less money.

Good article.

Obama to Announce Chrysler Bankruptcy Thursday

Why is Tyler the only one who get's what's going on?

Government Capital, LLC - I love it!

Weaker than Expected GDP

today's rally was all hype...likley a 'celebration' of Obama making it 100 days without the whole country collapsing (give him another 100 for that). Today's volume was sparse to say the least.

...the American consumer cannot spend our way out of this and the fundamentals are still not showing any real stability.

Is anyone paying attention?

Peculiarities of the Current Rally: Where Do We Go from Here?

I agree with most people here... The "other shoes" include commercial real estate and credit cards. I also think that its very tough to trade this market when apparently nothing fundamental is at play other than Gov't manipulation.

U.S. Steel: Ugly, Way Ugly

...Don't worry, everything is great! GDP worse then expected, not to worry. Banks need extra capital, not an issue. What pending problems in Commercial Real Estate and Credit Card defaults?

I agree the CNBC cheerleaders will be spinning this like a dradel on Chanukah tomorrow...

Very well written article.

Stress Test: For Banks or Investors?

fed says certain banks are under capitalized...the market goes up. COF comes in with bad news, the stock goes up. Stress test insight iss essentially inconclusive...market rally's up.

I believe none of it and agree with the shorts, BUT, one cannot help but be frustrated with the puffery abound which has everyone prematurely thinking this is over.

Why Chrysler Needs to Declare Bankruptcy

agreed on the bankruptcy options, for both Chrysler and GM. Though, the idea of these "surgical" bankruptcies are ridiculous.

...hit the toilet handle and flush the system out

Observations on the Credit / Equity Relationship

...bought SKF just north of 61... Tyler's insight, while very technical in presentation, touches fundamentally on something a lot of realize which is that the rally of recent, especially in financials is more puffery than substance.

Mortgage Defaults Have Not Reached Bottom Yet

I agree with the author. Foreclosure's are not easing, and remember it was not until recently that many of the moritoriums were lifted.

What's worse is the relationship between credit card defaults and unemployment, which is trending up (still) and the former is increasingly exponentially as compared to the former.

It's hard to trade in a market when the Gov't is in there mixing things up. I think we go sideways for while and get another pullback. As such I'm in SKF and SMN.

There's Still Plenty of Crude

I believe going into the summer months in the U.S. we'll see a spike in prices, though not a drastic as last summer. In this case go long UCO.

However, fundamentally I believe there is far more supply than demand currently which will help keep prices in check despite what OPEC would like to do. Therefore one can hedge a UCO position with SCO to cover your downside risk...

Where Have All the Buybacks Gone?

Anybody catch Sheldon Adelson, Chairman/CEO of Las Vegas Sands buy 7.8 million shares of his own stock two weeks ago? It's not exactly the same thing; however, in theory I supose it should insipre confidence in the entity as a going concern is the head hancho is buying that much stock.

Market Trend Remains Firmly Down

Using terms like, New Bull Market" is irresponsible. You are doing a great disservice to any would-be investor who's been clamoring to get into the recent up wave.

All this is, is a bear market rally with some shiny by products. Tell where the fundmentals have improved and I'll show you eight of the top commercial real estate developments around the country about to go into bankrupcy.

The bottom line is that we still need to shed capacity and we have not fully done that yet. Housing continues to decline and commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop.

Seven Reasons the Market Has Already Bottomed

...Old Trader you took the words out of my mouth...

This is a bear market rally, plain and simple. This ra-ra-cheerleading about the economy bottoming right now has to stop.

While there is some spots of O.K. news (and i do mean just O.K., not great or even really good) - the fundamentals are just not there.

This recession is about shedding capacity; we have to much - to much home building, to much cheap money flying around, to much everything.


Specifically the authors comments, " ...feel that their spending will begin increasing with stimulus/refinance money in their hands...", I disagree strongly: spending supported by government money and refinanced home equity is exactly what got us here in the first place.