Swashbuckler

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

Noted, thanks.


On Nov 21 05:01 PM Kimball Corson wrote:

> To Swashbuckler -- E*Trade does have serious financial problems though
> and has been in buy out talks for some time. The problem I had with
> the comment was its failure to distinguish between company financial
> problems and investor accounts and the ideas that E*Trade going under
> would sink the DOW and wreck the economy.

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

FYI---The post about E*trade is spam that has been posted dozens of times on this site, which I hit the abuse button on.


On Nov 21 01:28 PM Kimball Corson wrote:

> TO ALL POSTING COMMENTS HERE:
>
> I wrote this article first to see what favorable information on the
> economy could be quickly gathered and presented, but also to flush
> out as many pro depression and dooms day scenarios in opposition
> as I could. It appears I have succeeded.
>
> However, what strikes me most is how disjointed and incoherent most
> of the opposition comments are, many very badly informed, e.g., one
> saying my points were inaccurate and then berating me, by example,
> for saying GDP growth was quite small last quarter, then it was reported
> at 3.5%. When the number had several gov't programs factored out,
> best etimates were the real rate was about .5%, quite small as I
> said. Another wild one is any bankruptcy of E*Trade was going to
> sink the economy and the DOW. Others discussed how large bubbles
> could just disappear. Much analysis went, by analogy, something like
> this: "the money machine is broken and on life support...all else
> is smoke and mirrors... capitulation posponed."
>
> Those who have read my other articles here should know I am not as
> optimistic as this article made me appear, but I have very organized
> reasons for why we are in the fix we are in. Doom's day or depression
> is not at all inevitable as many suggest. The volume of commerce
> still on going is very, very large. However, what government does
> matters, and I am afraid that there is too great a lack of transparency
> for people to understand the outcomes of most programs such as TARP
> I and II and the stimulus program, to included the infrastructure
> rebuild projects in it.
>
> There are strong good points regarding the programs results and some
> strong bad points, some of which can still be repaired, but there
> is little good discussion because the govenment does not adequately
> inform us of what is going on. The vacuum in turn generates all sorts
> of foolish notions and speculations some of which create opposition
> to continued and needed repairs for the economy.
>
> Obama should put all cards on the table, explain in detail all programs,
> admit errors, fix them were there is the opportunity and have people
> understand where their money went on these programs. For example,
> most people have no idea that the government got huge returns from
> the banks under TARP on the stock warrants it took in exchange for
> bailout funds or that it is auctioning off more such warrants very
> soon.
>
> It is too easy to inaccurately paint the picture of the economy as
> black or white, but especially black. It and its prospects are more
> complicated than that.

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

Sorry, Davewmart---November 18 Instablog posted by Freya, entitled Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble. A nice discussion follows her remarks.


On Nov 21 11:10 AM Davewmart wrote:

> Swashbuckler,
> You comments were interesting, but I do wish that people who make
> such extensive reference to other data would provide links so that
> those of us who are interested can investigate further.
> Where is this Freya blog?

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

Maya---I don't think that anyone, including me, who has had even superficial exposure to the markets, would deny the reality of bubbles and the role that they play. Although I am sure that there is not much of a consensus on the their definition. My comments were pertaining to a specific Instablog that Freya recently posted, regarding bubbles, which made sense to me. I agree with you that there are likely serious problems yet to be dealt with. Respectfully, Swash.


On Nov 21 09:11 AM Mayascribe wrote:

> Swash: In my book, and this is not to put down anyone on SA, Freya
> and her husband, have as much investing horse sense as anyone on
> SA. But, with all due regard my friend, bubbles do exist. What is
> going on with gold right now is, in my mind is a bubble in formation.
> What will happen with rare earth elements, will become a bubble.
> What went on with housing was most definitely a bubble. What's going
> on here, on SA, is a knowledge bubble. What happened during the dot.com
> times was a bubble, when tech stock's price/earnings ratios went
> exponential bonkers high, and then exploded.
>
> Bubbles expand because the sentiments of avarice outweigh fundamental
> reasoning. Bubbles create a false sense of financial comfort. <br/>
>
> Thing is though, all bubbles reach their bursting point. But there
> are other kinds of bubbles, too. Never before has our government
> gone on such a spending spree, a financially manevolent and consuming
> bubble that will eventually have dire results. Add in Social Security
> and Medicare and we have a convincing case for ongoing Fedzilla bubbles
> that as yet, no one knows with which how to solve.
>
> The only hope I have, is that the dollar will be weakened to such
> an extent, that those six billion people out there, who now know
> how the other 600 million people live, will create such a demand
> for USA's goods and services, that we may just be able to pull ourselves
> through this mess. That's a long shot, because our government would
> rather protect Wall Street, than protect the common person who lives
> on main street.

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

Maya---That debt clock is a pail of cold water in the face of even the most hardcore optimist. But the author does lay out some pretty convincing points. There are several bright areas. While it is a worn out cliche to say to proceed with caution, it is still probably advisable nonetheless. The reality remains that the markets are still in a massive move since March. And there is much to be said for "seizing the day", as you and many others have done since March and April. Freya lays out a very convincing case that the bubbles that are now perceived by so many, don't actually exist. And I believe she is light years ahead of 99% of the posters on SA, when it comes to market and/or investing IQ and ability . Although I believe she indicated that further out, a year or two, there may be trouble. And that in any event, if her charts turn, she turns. I am personally expecting a helluva a bear to return, but I don't know the timing. You already know my thoughts on asset protection.

On Nov 20 11:53 PM Mayascribe wrote:

> Swash and Mark: Both good summaries. You know my position, that
> all that is being done by our government is only delaying the inevitable.
> For the most part, I like what the author writes. But maybe he should
> take a 5 minute gander at this site:
>
> www.usdebtclock.org

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

IMO, the economy is in the midst of a temporary reprieve from an ugly fate. The author cites some legitimate reasons why many or most people may be confident moving forward. And we may be fine for a few months or a couple of years. But there are more than simply a few token cracks in the underlying economy. There are some compound fractures, primarily involving the big banks. There will be a reckoning. When things turn south, problems can multiply with frightening speed. Things can turn on a dime. Berkshire Hathaway had a junk status rating only a mere eight months ago. Government liquidity injections have allowed Goldman to give the markets some gas on the upside over the past several months, and government screwing with the mark to market rules has changed some perceptions. But the USA is painting itself into a corner, and there is no way possible our government, today or in the future, will voluntarily address the problems in a meaningful way. It simply will not happen. And pumping endless trillions into the economy is not addressing problems, it is magnifying them. The USA will find out the hard way. And rest assured, whether it is Obama and his crew, or the next president and his crew, whoever is in charge when the sh#t hits the fan will say he inherited the problems. And to a degree, that will be accurate.

This Is Not Good...

If the TED spread continues to widen, doom for the stock market.

First PPD Gets SEC'd, Then it Gets FTC'd. It Seems to be a Bad Year for Ponzi Schemes.

Nice work Reggie. Your research has been in front of the problems at PPD. I think time will be kind to your research on PPD and on the banks you've written about.

Gold Likely Won't Go Back Below $1000

I don't know whether gold dips back beneath $1000 in the next few months or not. With the markets of the past year, nothing surprises me anymore. For any holding period beyond a few months, in my opinion you provide a solid case that gold will be forced substantially higher because of the short sighted attitudes of those people who have the most influence on money supply. Enjoyed the article.

Quick Chat # 19-Start 11/18/09

one eye---I'm not convinced that rehashing that drama will serve any useful purpose. I enjoy many of Freya's posts and many of Alberta's posts. A wise man (father of a friend) once told me, many years ago, after a bitter dispute, "Sometimes it's best to let bygones be bygones." From that moment on, we remained close friends until he passed away 18 years later.
At some point, enough is enough. I think we're there.

On Nov 19 12:17 AM one eye wrote:

> Swash: I'd like to hear the Truth from you for a Change. When Freya
> said "she couldn't take it anymore"
>
> You said that you saw it coming. What were the reasons behind that
> comment? The Truth Please.

QUICK CHAT # 16- 11/10/09 after Market Close/ Update of Insta

Guns---My thoughts and prayers are with you, your wife and family.

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

Freya---Your frustration is understandable. I also had a run-in with Albertarocks. On a Steve Hansen article near the end of July, before he began hanging out with this group. We patched it up and moved forward. I may have been at fault, but that is irrelevant, since the only meaning that something like that has is the meaning you give it. Disputes are the rule on Seeking Alpha, not the exception. I have had many. You indicated today that you may soon have your comments deleted. I have spent much time today going over your comment stream and have concluded that there is something I would not be able to reconcile if I took a lifetime. How could anyone with your intellect and breadth of knowledge decide to permanently leave the forum over what amounts to nothing? People are going to say what they are going to say, and do what they are going to do, today and since time began. You will NEVER be able to control what people say or what they think. I could care less if a person thinks me a saint or an infidel, a genius or a fool. Out of my control. Trust me, Freya. Alberta has gotten the message, and the gender remarks will not return.The best of all scenarios is that you will hang around. Or if you feel you have no choice but to leave, maybe you will leave the door cracked for an occasional visit or return. I think it safe to say that your staying here would be appreciated by many.

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

Freya---Some of Alberta's comments may have been better suited for a guy's locker room. But with the roads I've traveled in my life, I am in no position to criticize Alberta or anyone else for their behavior. I do believe you are doing yourself a disservice if you allow his comments to hurt or injure you in any way. Especially in a forum like this, where most of us would not know each other if we were side by side in a room. For all any of you truly know, I may be on parole right now for murder, rape, or child molestation. Or I may be sitting in the prison library this instant pounding out this comment. Freya, I am not condemning you for finding certain behavior disgusting, particularly in mixed company as we have here. Some remarks are simply vile, even if you assume no ill intent behind those remarks. Especially when remarks which may be construed as demeaning in style have occurred repeatedly. Although with me, again, it's a case of been there, done that. What I am saying, is that any time I have ever felt my character attacked or an assault upon my integrity, a "sticks and stones" outlook has always served me well. Peace to you and Alberta. P.S.--I thoroughly enjoy your comments on US/China relations, like you laid out earlier today.

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

Freya---I respect your opinion and you contribute enormously, IMO, to the SA forum. Thanks, Swash.

The Hindenburg Omen (Extended)

Albertarocks----I enjoy much of what you write, especially the humor. I disagree frequently with things posted on SA, and I can certainly understand why some things may be regarded by some people as inappropriate to the forum. Having said that, NONE of it offends me. Being offended is ALWAYS a choice that is made, a conscious decision. If I care what someone thinks of me, and they change their opinion of me, where does that leave me? I'd be at the mercy of an insult from a stranger. So if you choose to continue to keep posting, I'll continue to enjoy it. If you choose otherwise, let's just say I won't need therapy to cope with your decision. Respectfully, Swash.