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  • Welcome To The Golden Age Of Currency Trading [View instapost]
    That's not a very good comment, because "up or down" makes a difference. You don't know, or have no opinion? Don't post.
    Nov 1 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome To The Golden Age Of Currency Trading [View instapost]
    Jay, what would you say to the idea that turns in currency markets are usually preceded by a complete flush in the opposite direction first? Has that happened in USD/JPY? While I like the pair long over time, I don't feel that time is of the essence right now, and I'm suspicious that there are a lot of weak hands holding long positions right now. And nobody searches for weakness any better than the currency market.
    Oct 31 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $6,000 Gold? Keep An Eye On Newt Gingrich [View article]
    That's exactly the way it is likely to play out. In fact, Newt has won only S.C., by a total vote count less than the population of Temecula, CA., all of those voters coming from a state that was the leader in the secessionist rebellion. It's hardly a surprise, and not nearly as meaningful as it looks at first glance. What is meaningful, probably, is that Mitt ain't a guy who engenders loyalty or emotion. Look for a dark horse to come out of the woods, maybe as late as a deadlocked GOP convention.
    Jan 25 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $6,000 Gold? Keep An Eye On Newt Gingrich [View article]
    Would you like to re-write that in English, Itsgt1? As written, it exemplifies a junior high school student who is failing a lot of classes.

    Truly, I'm sorry for pointing this out, but your writing is so utterly bad that I think it strains anyone to discern who's side you are on, or what you are actually thinking about.

    Here's just a small clue for you: bad, worse, worst. Good luck with those remedial grammar classes.
    Jan 25 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $6,000 Gold? Keep An Eye On Newt Gingrich [View article]
    Here's a simple reason, Homer II. Newt is such an abrasive ego-maniac that he cannot work with people very long without alienating them. Since the POTUS is not an emperor, but rather an executor, working well with others is an enormously valuable skill. Newt fails one of the most essential parts of the job description.
    Jan 24 07:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Recession Warning [View article]
    Well, John, we've had a few months to look this over, and frankly you are getting the short end of the stick. Moreover, from the history of your writings, you seem to fall into the "perma-bear" camp. You just don't seem to find a market you like, and haven't since the record-postings started. Obviously, there have been some tough patches, but you didn't like the spring of 2009, or anything that followed. You're getting trampled, I'm sorry to say.

    Now with your latest writing you say that you will reassess the situation in "6 to 8 weeks". Good for you. But frankly, your "leading indicators" (and your disdain for coincident indicators) seems to have you on the wrong foot more often than not.

    As such, if you should "reassess" in a month or two, I'd be inclined to build a bomb shelter. You are simply and consistently *that* wrong. The market is *never* attractive enough for you, and thus when you finally jump on board you have to be seen as a potential high-value contra-indicator.

    What on earth are you going to do in 6 weeks? Call an "all-clear" after missing what is likely to be a 10 or 15 percent (or more) rally in a market that thinks 2 to 3 percent growth is fine? I don't think you can do that, because it goes *way* against your personal grain.

    Looking over your history of weekly writings, you are very, very unlikely to ever get my money to manage.

    Regards ...
    Jan 19 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012: A Big Year For The U.S. Stock Market [View article]
    My problem with that analysis (good as it may be), is that in order to fulfill it, we need something on the order of a 12 percent rally mid year (-5 but ending up +7). Possible, but as you say, it's an election year.

    That said, I'd be buying conservatively (not all-in by any means) if we get the 5 percent drop.
    Jan 2 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012: A Big Year For The U.S. Stock Market [View article]
    But conventional wisdom is often not too wise, and maybe particularly when it bets against seasonality, which always favors a weaker second half (sell in May).

    FWIW, the market seems to have an EU bust-up all but priced in. Ergo, if there's no bust-up, the market could simply squeeze higher and higher, frightening people from chasing by continually reminding them of a bust-up possibility and what that might entail. That is the kind of action that wrong-foots many, and is exactly the kind of thing markets do.

    Very, very tough year coming up again, I suspect. And the election in the US is likely to have more influence this year than it usually does.

    At the end of the day, it's likely a year to preserve capital, as I don't really see a convincing argument that I'm going to miss out on the beginning of some multi-year bull run from here.
    Jan 1 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012: A Big Year For The U.S. Stock Market [View article]
    Define "dip", and differentiate between "this is a dip" and "I was a dip, so I'm bailing out."

    Otherwise, your touts are meaningless.
    Jan 1 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are 'Cheap' On A Number Of Bases [View article]
    I agree, John. It doesn't look "cheap" to me based on that metric. In fact, I don't even begin to get a feeling of "bargain-ish" until it's below 15, and "cheap" is below at least 12, if not lower. Cheap has a tendency to get cheaper, especially when "cheap" ain't all that cheap to begin with.

    To be sure, there is some point about earnings *AS LONG AS* they hold up going forward. Again, check the chart in that regard. The huge earnings fall off in the early 20s was followed by a recovery that didn't quite match the previous high (exactly where we are at right now) and then a "muddle through" until after WWII, when earnings finally took out the 30-year-old high.
    Dec 30 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Times Saves The Bull, Maybe Ends Bear Market [View article]
    Key reversals have not been very good predictors of future price action for a couple of decades. It's another case of an indicator becoming well known, at which point it largely fails to work.

    I also wonder about the "pundit wisdom" that most retail players cannot or do not short. It's relatively easy to short now through ETFs, if nothing else. Even leveraged ETFs. My guess is that a lot of shorts saw a lot of cash on the table after a rout of nearly 5 percent, and they saw an excuse to grab the cash, and they took it. Late profit takers simply piled on.

    Fear rules the markets right now. And if you've never put on a short, you don't know how fearful that can become. It's one of the factors that makes shorting a tough game, even in a down market.
    Oct 4 09:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Running Out of Oil? Fact Checking Jim Rogers [View article]
    Some people are bad at math, and apparently you are one of them. Your table, below:

    Year End

    Total Oil Reserves (billions of barrels)
    1989 1006.4
    1999 1085.6
    2009 1331.1

    Now take the 1989 figure (1006.4) and compound it by only 2 percent a year. This is a very conservative estimate of how much oil *demand* is growing annually, and it may be faster than that.

    What you will easily discover is that demand is growing, with no question, faster than supply. This is the quintessential definition of "running out". New discoveries are *NOT* keeping pace with demand.

    Shooting from the hip? It's a subject you apparently are well versed in.
    Jan 28 04:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Screen Tool: Zero In on Short Opportunities [View article]
    Most people cannot short successfully. Period. They assume that shorting is simply the opposite of taking a long, when the dynamics are quite different. If your short screen is merely a mirror image of your long screen, then welcome to losses.
    Jan 28 04:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: Heavy Upside From a Leveraged Play on Rising Silver Prices [View article]
    The premise of holding only one stock is foolish enough. Putting it all in a silver stock means only one thing: This guy has 420 more followers than he should have.
    Jan 28 04:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Update: Trade, Demographics, Deflation, Yen, and the Nikkei [View article]
    Not sure what markets you are watching, but the yen has actually weakened recently versus the buck, and Japanese stocks, rather than trading sideways, have spurted nearly 10 percent *THIS MONTH*.

    Like I say, not sure what markets you are watching, but I'd suggest watching them more closely.
    Nov 25 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment