Lance's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/39082/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/28292-seeking-alpha-stock-market-email-alerts-faq?source=feed#comment-602284 602284
Here's why, SE ...

You "don't support" plain text email. Because you don't *want* to support it, of course. And I don't support getting my bandwidth eaten by every Tom, Dick & Harry that wants to send image-clogged missives that thereby border on SPAM.

You can embed your links in plain text, and I can copy and paste them if I want to follow them.

Also, for some reason that had nothing to do with me, I started receiving two of everything some time ago. I'm a fairly bright guy (you'll just have to trust me on that score), and I didn't request this or do anything to enable it. You did.

So, enough is enough. You don't want to bother with plain text, and I don't want to bother with every image you want to send me. We are at loggerheads on this, and that means you're finished.

Have a good day.]]> Sun, 26 Jul 2009 00:33:41 -0400
Here's why, SE ...

You "don't support" plain text email. Because you don't *want* to support it, of course. And I don't support getting my bandwidth eaten by every Tom, Dick & Harry that wants to send image-clogged missives that thereby border on SPAM.

You can embed your links in plain text, and I can copy and paste them if I want to follow them.

Also, for some reason that had nothing to do with me, I started receiving two of everything some time ago. I'm a fairly bright guy (you'll just have to trust me on that score), and I didn't request this or do anything to enable it. You did.

So, enough is enough. You don't want to bother with plain text, and I don't want to bother with every image you want to send me. We are at loggerheads on this, and that means you're finished.

Have a good day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144570-buying-gold-to-keep-up-with-inflation?source=feed#comment-558628 558628
The Fed is not entirely stupid, and it realizes that the excess money creation has to be reversed as soon as economic conditions allow. They will probably act sooner than the equity market will prefer, and that may keep demand well at bay, which would not promise any return for gold investors either.

Inflation really takes off from a *combination* of money creation and strong goods demand. We'll have to wait for the latter to really materialize before we can understand Fed strategy, and if it is in front of or behind the curve. But we may have a while to wait for demand to develop to a point that it begins to push inflation. And without serious demand: no serious inflation.]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 08:29:13 -0400
The Fed is not entirely stupid, and it realizes that the excess money creation has to be reversed as soon as economic conditions allow. They will probably act sooner than the equity market will prefer, and that may keep demand well at bay, which would not promise any return for gold investors either.

Inflation really takes off from a *combination* of money creation and strong goods demand. We'll have to wait for the latter to really materialize before we can understand Fed strategy, and if it is in front of or behind the curve. But we may have a while to wait for demand to develop to a point that it begins to push inflation. And without serious demand: no serious inflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144559-hamstringing-u-s-banks-is-not-the-answer?source=feed#comment-557208 557208
I didn't realize this is version of The Daily Show, and that you are apparently a Jon Stewart impersonator.

Have you ever *been* to Japan? Can you speak Japanese? Have you ever owned a Japanese bank share, and have you ever tried to influence Japanese management by virtue of such ownership?

Do tell us how it turned out.

Big is not beautiful, when big endangers the entire economy through ignorance and greed. There is absolutely a threshold beyond which a bank becomes big enough to be a systemic risk. For some time to come, if a bank crosses that threshold, it's not going to be free to do whatever it wants. One person's "hamstringing" is another person's common sense.]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:26:28 -0400
I didn't realize this is version of The Daily Show, and that you are apparently a Jon Stewart impersonator.

Have you ever *been* to Japan? Can you speak Japanese? Have you ever owned a Japanese bank share, and have you ever tried to influence Japanese management by virtue of such ownership?

Do tell us how it turned out.

Big is not beautiful, when big endangers the entire economy through ignorance and greed. There is absolutely a threshold beyond which a bank becomes big enough to be a systemic risk. For some time to come, if a bank crosses that threshold, it's not going to be free to do whatever it wants. One person's "hamstringing" is another person's common sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138300-japanese-don-t-think-the-u-s-crisis-is-so-bad?source=feed#comment-509453 509453
Apparently, you haven't paid much attention to Japanese wages over the past decade. Here's a tip: They ain't what they used to be. So it's no wonder that consumer sentiment is now "high" when it rebounds to around 50 percent.

I think all you are seeing in the consumer confidence "rebound" is a sort of second derivative. Everyone is pleased that the system didn't completely melt down. That doesn't mean they are about to go on a spending spree.

If you think Japanese consumers are going to pick up the slack for Americans, you're betting on the wrong horse. It just is not going to happen. Able-bodied adults are now stuffing mailboxes with circulars in Japan. Yeah, they have a job, so to speak. No, they aren't going to be replacing their flat screens.]]> Tue, 19 May 2009 09:26:01 -0400
Apparently, you haven't paid much attention to Japanese wages over the past decade. Here's a tip: They ain't what they used to be. So it's no wonder that consumer sentiment is now "high" when it rebounds to around 50 percent.

I think all you are seeing in the consumer confidence "rebound" is a sort of second derivative. Everyone is pleased that the system didn't completely melt down. That doesn't mean they are about to go on a spending spree.

If you think Japanese consumers are going to pick up the slack for Americans, you're betting on the wrong horse. It just is not going to happen. Able-bodied adults are now stuffing mailboxes with circulars in Japan. Yeah, they have a job, so to speak. No, they aren't going to be replacing their flat screens.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137888-is-japan-s-government-doing-enough-to-help-the-economy?source=feed#comment-506843 506843
Rate cuts? How low can you go?

What Japan needs to do is to foster a culture in which people want to have children. As long as world economics rests on the principle of non-stop population growth, there is no other "fix" for Japanese society.

All this said, I don't see your proposals in the article. Zero. The BoJ and government should "do something". Well, exactly what, I might ask.]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 02:22:02 -0400
Rate cuts? How low can you go?

What Japan needs to do is to foster a culture in which people want to have children. As long as world economics rests on the principle of non-stop population growth, there is no other "fix" for Japanese society.

All this said, I don't see your proposals in the article. Zero. The BoJ and government should "do something". Well, exactly what, I might ask.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130708-outlook-for-japanese-stocks-a-rising-sun?source=feed#comment-463341 463341
While it does suggest the DoCoMo had some chump change (~300 million dollars) burning a hole it its pocket, it also suggests that DoCoMo believes that its own business is not where it should be investing money right now. Generally, to me, this is not a "The Sun Is Rising" kind of signal.

I think you need to pay more attention to employment in Japan. Right now, pretty much no one feels secure about his or her job. Until that changes, the economy is not going to show much life.

And Seven & I Holdings is not really what I would call an exporter, either.



]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:23:34 -0400
While it does suggest the DoCoMo had some chump change (~300 million dollars) burning a hole it its pocket, it also suggests that DoCoMo believes that its own business is not where it should be investing money right now. Generally, to me, this is not a "The Sun Is Rising" kind of signal.

I think you need to pay more attention to employment in Japan. Right now, pretty much no one feels secure about his or her job. Until that changes, the economy is not going to show much life.

And Seven & I Holdings is not really what I would call an exporter, either.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126116-market-s-irrational-exuberance-hikes-up-japanese-adrs-despite-export-plunge?source=feed#comment-427297 427297 Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:09:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124642-how-long-before-the-dollar-fails?source=feed#comment-417758 417758
As long as productive capacity far outstrips demand, inflation is simply not going to happen.]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 08:12:43 -0400
As long as productive capacity far outstrips demand, inflation is simply not going to happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120866-japan-s-nikkei-black-hole-or-buying-opportunity?source=feed#comment-394524 394524
So unable and/or unwilling to fix itself, Japan will wait for the rest of the world to heal and hope for the best. It might be a long wait.

One possible ray of hope for Japanese exporters: The government could simply decide to put the consumption tax hike off for longer than prudent (seemingly plausible excuses for that would be easy to manufacture), and thus trigger a yen slide. "No, we haven't intervened in the currency markets." "Well, not directly, anyway."]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 01:37:31 -0500
So unable and/or unwilling to fix itself, Japan will wait for the rest of the world to heal and hope for the best. It might be a long wait.

One possible ray of hope for Japanese exporters: The government could simply decide to put the consumption tax hike off for longer than prudent (seemingly plausible excuses for that would be easy to manufacture), and thus trigger a yen slide. "No, we haven't intervened in the currency markets." "Well, not directly, anyway."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108542-will-this-be-japan-s-longest-running-recession?source=feed#comment-320513 320513
I've been here since 1993. One small subway fare hike down here in Tokyo since then. When I arrived, I estimated "middle class" salaries at around 7 to 8 million yen. It's significantly lower than that now. I recently saw an article that said 38 percent of Japanese wage earners now make less than 3 million yen a year. Three million yen is the level at which companies that sponsor working visa applicants need to guarantee salaries (i.e. English teachers). So nearly 40 percent of Japanese would now be working for less than the salary of a typical English teacher.]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 04:09:01 -0500
I've been here since 1993. One small subway fare hike down here in Tokyo since then. When I arrived, I estimated "middle class" salaries at around 7 to 8 million yen. It's significantly lower than that now. I recently saw an article that said 38 percent of Japanese wage earners now make less than 3 million yen a year. Three million yen is the level at which companies that sponsor working visa applicants need to guarantee salaries (i.e. English teachers). So nearly 40 percent of Japanese would now be working for less than the salary of a typical English teacher.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108542-will-this-be-japan-s-longest-running-recession?source=feed#comment-318735 318735 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 08:59:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86467-should-japan-investors-welcome-the-return-of-inflation?source=feed#comment-213127 213127
And yes, as the article implies, it's cost-push inflation, not the best kind.

But as is typical with many phenomena in equity markets, the inflation is likely to be harmful in some cases, potentially helpful in others. Manufacturers will have to weigh resistance to price hikes. There very well might be enough resistance to hurt. But if the inflation is bothersome enough to manufacturers, the BoJ may have to respond, and that could make Japanese banks look even cheaper than they already do as spreads might widen.

Disclosure: Long Japanese banks since winter and loving it.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:05:15 -0400
And yes, as the article implies, it's cost-push inflation, not the best kind.

But as is typical with many phenomena in equity markets, the inflation is likely to be harmful in some cases, potentially helpful in others. Manufacturers will have to weigh resistance to price hikes. There very well might be enough resistance to hurt. But if the inflation is bothersome enough to manufacturers, the BoJ may have to respond, and that could make Japanese banks look even cheaper than they already do as spreads might widen.

Disclosure: Long Japanese banks since winter and loving it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81427-nikkei-weekly-outlook-eye-on-i-banks-inflation-and-the-yen?source=feed#comment-186333 186333
We've also got 63.3 percent of the issues in the TSE 1st section trading above their 10-week MAs. That number reached a rather eye-catching 84.4 percent in mid May, and it's been stubbornly high since then, even with the recent pullback. Either the market is embarking on a serious trend higher, which I would tend to doubt, or that number needs to come down below 50 percent, perhaps to 40 or just below, where I would expect safer buying.

I continue to like Sumitomo Trust, and full disclosure: I have a position. At below 850 (closed up 29 at 852 today), it yields more than 2 percent, and the dividend is solid. Actually, some of the banks here are still trading at undeserved discounts, IMHO. Indeed, Wall Street will either erase some of those discounts or pad them this week. But I continue to buy on bouts of weakness. The systemic risk seems to be over there (stateside), not over here.]]> Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:41:26 -0400
We've also got 63.3 percent of the issues in the TSE 1st section trading above their 10-week MAs. That number reached a rather eye-catching 84.4 percent in mid May, and it's been stubbornly high since then, even with the recent pullback. Either the market is embarking on a serious trend higher, which I would tend to doubt, or that number needs to come down below 50 percent, perhaps to 40 or just below, where I would expect safer buying.

I continue to like Sumitomo Trust, and full disclosure: I have a position. At below 850 (closed up 29 at 852 today), it yields more than 2 percent, and the dividend is solid. Actually, some of the banks here are still trading at undeserved discounts, IMHO. Indeed, Wall Street will either erase some of those discounts or pad them this week. But I continue to buy on bouts of weakness. The systemic risk seems to be over there (stateside), not over here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80116-japanese-market-awakening-from-its-long-slumber?source=feed#comment-179571 179571
Sure, Japan is outperforming in the short time frame of less than 90 days. Yes, Japan is up from the March lows ~20 percent versus ~10 percent for the US.

But one would assume that you are aware that Japan bottomed nearly a full 35 percent (!) off its 2007 highs, whereas the US bottomed roughly 19 percent off its 2007 highs.

So the US currently stands (basis the S&P 500) about 11 or 12 percent off its 2007 highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 still remains, after this 20 percent rally, about 21 percent below its 2007 highs. Yes, Virgina, it takes more of a percentage gain to get back the larger percentage loss, and Japan is still hanging on to a dandy loss from last year. In fact, Japan is still farther down from it's 2007 highs than the S&P 500 was at the apparent *bottom* of its swoon on March 17.

Now tell me who is outperforming whom in, say, the past 11 months.

Note: The TOPIX is running about 3 percent better than the Nikkei, but both Japanese indices languish much lower compared to their 2007 highs than the S&P 500. An equivalent S&P 500 loss from the 2007 highs would have taken that index down to somewhere just above 1,000. So far, it's never gotten close.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 08:47:59 -0400
Sure, Japan is outperforming in the short time frame of less than 90 days. Yes, Japan is up from the March lows ~20 percent versus ~10 percent for the US.

But one would assume that you are aware that Japan bottomed nearly a full 35 percent (!) off its 2007 highs, whereas the US bottomed roughly 19 percent off its 2007 highs.

So the US currently stands (basis the S&P 500) about 11 or 12 percent off its 2007 highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 still remains, after this 20 percent rally, about 21 percent below its 2007 highs. Yes, Virgina, it takes more of a percentage gain to get back the larger percentage loss, and Japan is still hanging on to a dandy loss from last year. In fact, Japan is still farther down from it's 2007 highs than the S&P 500 was at the apparent *bottom* of its swoon on March 17.

Now tell me who is outperforming whom in, say, the past 11 months.

Note: The TOPIX is running about 3 percent better than the Nikkei, but both Japanese indices languish much lower compared to their 2007 highs than the S&P 500. An equivalent S&P 500 loss from the 2007 highs would have taken that index down to somewhere just above 1,000. So far, it's never gotten close.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77163-japan-s-lost-decade-gives-way-to-the-new-asian-reality?source=feed#comment-167312 167312
What securities markets in Japan could you possibly be referring to, please? Neither the N225 nor the TOPIX are up at all. Both are down nearly 10 percent in fact. They are up from down about 20 percent in March, but then that is still not up this year.]]> Wed, 14 May 2008 08:32:58 -0400
What securities markets in Japan could you possibly be referring to, please? Neither the N225 nor the TOPIX are up at all. Both are down nearly 10 percent in fact. They are up from down about 20 percent in March, but then that is still not up this year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76054-bespoke-s-country-snapshot-5-6-08?source=feed#comment-163240 163240 Wed, 07 May 2008 08:34:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75084-a-few-reasons-to-buy-yen?source=feed#comment-159986 159986
But you should know that the Japanese *always* repatriate cash leading up to year-end book closings (March 31). So that means very little at present.

Moreover, the BoJ is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon. A bit of inflation is actually *welcome* here -- somewhat of a relief -- after prolonged deflation. Politically, with a weakening job market and stagnant salaries, raising rates here right now is a non-starter. And remember, the BoJ Governor is a third-pick political compromise, hardly anyone to show a streak of independence when it comes to monetary policy. Also, "round two" inflation (higher salaries demanded by unions to keep pace with higher prices) is much less likely here now than in the Euro zone or America. A rate hike here before the Fed? I'll give you at least 3-2 odds that does not happen.

My bet is that the yen-dollar cross goes almost nowhere for the next year or longer. Maybe 4 or 5 percent up and down but not getting any real directional traction either way. The people who were calling for 80 six weeks ago have lost their bet, which was really a bet on a complete American economic collapse. Didn't happen, and looks less likely day by day.]]> Thu, 01 May 2008 08:47:30 -0400
But you should know that the Japanese *always* repatriate cash leading up to year-end book closings (March 31). So that means very little at present.

Moreover, the BoJ is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon. A bit of inflation is actually *welcome* here -- somewhat of a relief -- after prolonged deflation. Politically, with a weakening job market and stagnant salaries, raising rates here right now is a non-starter. And remember, the BoJ Governor is a third-pick political compromise, hardly anyone to show a streak of independence when it comes to monetary policy. Also, "round two" inflation (higher salaries demanded by unions to keep pace with higher prices) is much less likely here now than in the Euro zone or America. A rate hike here before the Fed? I'll give you at least 3-2 odds that does not happen.

My bet is that the yen-dollar cross goes almost nowhere for the next year or longer. Maybe 4 or 5 percent up and down but not getting any real directional traction either way. The people who were calling for 80 six weeks ago have lost their bet, which was really a bet on a complete American economic collapse. Didn't happen, and looks less likely day by day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69549-market-outlook-watch-out-the-signs-can-be-deceiving?source=feed#comment-130815 130815 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 17:52:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60950-if-not-now-when-mr-bernanke?source=feed#comment-112121 112121
Maybe they want to do something. But maybe they want to do something at a time when the market isn't going to drive over them like cheap roadkill 5 minutes after they do it. You get more bang for your buck by picking your shots carefully. It's also very doubtful that the situation is that dire, except perhaps to people who thought S&P 1550 five years into a bull market was a good place to hop on board.

I'd like to see this panic extended a few days so I can buy some values. I don't need a 5 percent Fed-induced burp that will fade like last summer's suntan, thanks.]]> Tue, 22 Jan 2008 08:58:39 -0500
Maybe they want to do something. But maybe they want to do something at a time when the market isn't going to drive over them like cheap roadkill 5 minutes after they do it. You get more bang for your buck by picking your shots carefully. It's also very doubtful that the situation is that dire, except perhaps to people who thought S&P 1550 five years into a bull market was a good place to hop on board.

I'd like to see this panic extended a few days so I can buy some values. I don't need a 5 percent Fed-induced burp that will fade like last summer's suntan, thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40677-aiful-corpration-to-benefit-from-japanese-consumer-lending-consolidation?source=feed#comment-109587 109587
Buy more here? ^_-

God, I want to get notified so I can take the other side of some of these trades.]]> Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:58:25 -0500
Buy more here? ^_-

God, I want to get notified so I can take the other side of some of these trades.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/31690-nikko-cordial-southeastern-asset-management-offers-to-sell-for-1900-yen?source=feed#comment-109586 109586
Who pays these fools?]]> Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:54:53 -0500
Who pays these fools?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/31690-nikko-cordial-southeastern-asset-management-offers-to-sell-for-1900-yen?source=feed#comment-109585 109585
Chuck Prince was/is a moron. I rest my case.]]> Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:53:53 -0500
Chuck Prince was/is a moron. I rest my case.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58174-why-i-m-not-100-convinced-that-we-ve-entered-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-106693 106693
I think you've made some good points, and considered this from several angles. The way I would play this if I was in US equities is pretty straightforward. I'd be oscillating between zero and about 50 percent long, as apparent buying opportunities presented themselves. I would hold the other 50 percent in reserve for the 25 to 35 percent pullback, which may never come, but which is much more likely under the current circumstances than it was before. I think if you go 100 percent long here, at any point near term, you risk getting trapped.

I agree, there is no bubble waiting to be popped. The downside is very, very unlikely to be 50 percent, or 70 percent. But the downside is certainly 20 to 30 percent possibly. Thirty percent off S&P 500 at 1500 is way, way down there at about 1,050. Even 20 percent puts it at about 1200. Anybody willing to have 100 percent get trapped like that? Anybody think it can't happen?

Try 120-dollar oil for starters. Try and imagine what earnings might be like in the next two "earnings seasons".

P/Es are reasonable? Sure, but not cheap. I go back to when they have slumped to 12, or even 10. It happens.

The game is rigged to the upside, and anyone who doesn't realize that is not too clever. But from time to time there is substantial downside risk. This next 6 to 12 months is one of those times, I think. Keep an oar in the water if you must, but don't get sucked in. There are times, not often, but I think this is one of them, that call for more substantial cash reserves than normal. I want to buy at 1100 or 1200. It will take cash. I will have some.]]> Mon, 24 Dec 2007 07:34:15 -0500
I think you've made some good points, and considered this from several angles. The way I would play this if I was in US equities is pretty straightforward. I'd be oscillating between zero and about 50 percent long, as apparent buying opportunities presented themselves. I would hold the other 50 percent in reserve for the 25 to 35 percent pullback, which may never come, but which is much more likely under the current circumstances than it was before. I think if you go 100 percent long here, at any point near term, you risk getting trapped.

I agree, there is no bubble waiting to be popped. The downside is very, very unlikely to be 50 percent, or 70 percent. But the downside is certainly 20 to 30 percent possibly. Thirty percent off S&P 500 at 1500 is way, way down there at about 1,050. Even 20 percent puts it at about 1200. Anybody willing to have 100 percent get trapped like that? Anybody think it can't happen?

Try 120-dollar oil for starters. Try and imagine what earnings might be like in the next two "earnings seasons".

P/Es are reasonable? Sure, but not cheap. I go back to when they have slumped to 12, or even 10. It happens.

The game is rigged to the upside, and anyone who doesn't realize that is not too clever. But from time to time there is substantial downside risk. This next 6 to 12 months is one of those times, I think. Keep an oar in the water if you must, but don't get sucked in. There are times, not often, but I think this is one of them, that call for more substantial cash reserves than normal. I want to buy at 1100 or 1200. It will take cash. I will have some.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40677-aiful-corpration-to-benefit-from-japanese-consumer-lending-consolidation?source=feed#comment-101653 101653
You don't belong here. Got that? Anybody can recommend anything. People with guts stand behind their recommendations, or at least offer explanations.

You ran away and hid. Pitty the bastards that listened to you.

Lance]]> Mon, 12 Nov 2007 00:42:37 -0500
You don't belong here. Got that? Anybody can recommend anything. People with guts stand behind their recommendations, or at least offer explanations.

You ran away and hid. Pitty the bastards that listened to you.

Lance]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40677-aiful-corpration-to-benefit-from-japanese-consumer-lending-consolidation?source=feed#comment-98461 98461
Either you respond to your mistakes, or you don't deserve to be a featured poster ... anywhere.

What say you? Silence when your picks go down the toilet?

How professional.

Are you going to wait for 2012 and then claim victory? Your position is FAR underwater; much more than prudent money management would allow.

What say you, wimp?

Lance]]> Fri, 12 Oct 2007 01:28:26 -0400
Either you respond to your mistakes, or you don't deserve to be a featured poster ... anywhere.

What say you? Silence when your picks go down the toilet?

How professional.

Are you going to wait for 2012 and then claim victory? Your position is FAR underwater; much more than prudent money management would allow.

What say you, wimp?

Lance]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40677-aiful-corpration-to-benefit-from-japanese-consumer-lending-consolidation?source=feed#comment-96509 96509
This tout is now about 50 percent of your entry price (as of yesterday). I didn't buy it, which is probably obvious from my previous comments. Moreover, given the industry meltdown, I didn't enter around 2200 either. There simply is no way to manage a trade with reasonable risk when these companies are just pancaking.

But you put it out there, and you should follow up on your trades.

Lance]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2007 19:36:13 -0400
This tout is now about 50 percent of your entry price (as of yesterday). I didn't buy it, which is probably obvious from my previous comments. Moreover, given the industry meltdown, I didn't enter around 2200 either. There simply is no way to manage a trade with reasonable risk when these companies are just pancaking.

But you put it out there, and you should follow up on your trades.

Lance]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40677-aiful-corpration-to-benefit-from-japanese-consumer-lending-consolidation?source=feed#comment-93685 93685
Aiful traded at 2,500 today, August 15.]]> Wed, 15 Aug 2007 00:38:44 -0400
Aiful traded at 2,500 today, August 15.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40677-aiful-corpration-to-benefit-from-japanese-consumer-lending-consolidation?source=feed#comment-91006 91006
Your numbers are old, however. The 1.82 yield you quoted is based on the last dividend of 60 yen per year. But Aiful is only projecting 40 yen this year, so the yield is only about 1.22 percent, which means you really aren't getting much more return for assuming more risk than companies with fewer headaches may give you.

This is bottom-picking for sure, and of course everyone wants to buy bottoms. But these companies have not only taken huge financial hits (about five years of earnings to the red last year in the case of Aiful, and this was what they were earning when they basically had a license to print money), they have become pretty much social lepers.

You are saying Aiful will survive, and I tend to agree with you. But the road back to prosperity is likely to be a long one, and these consumer lenders are notorious for stock volatility. I want to see complete capitulation before I step into this mess, and I haven't seen that yet. Moreover, I'm not sure there are any consumer finance cherries out there to be picked by the survivors.

Aiful says they'll earn about 270 yen per share this year. On July 24 they'll give us the April-June numbers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lower the forecast, and the shares take another drubbing. Somewhere there is a bottom of course. But I'm want to buy from someone who bought this 7 or 8 month "bottoming pattern", and then gets exhausted by a 25 percent drawdown from here. Otherwise, I can wait for good news and buy on the way up.

The Takefuji play here is much more reasonable I think; at least you are getting some serious yield for your risk. If you are in for a long ride and can stand drawdown, you're probably only out opportunity cost.]]> Thu, 12 Jul 2007 09:47:12 -0400
Your numbers are old, however. The 1.82 yield you quoted is based on the last dividend of 60 yen per year. But Aiful is only projecting 40 yen this year, so the yield is only about 1.22 percent, which means you really aren't getting much more return for assuming more risk than companies with fewer headaches may give you.

This is bottom-picking for sure, and of course everyone wants to buy bottoms. But these companies have not only taken huge financial hits (about five years of earnings to the red last year in the case of Aiful, and this was what they were earning when they basically had a license to print money), they have become pretty much social lepers.

You are saying Aiful will survive, and I tend to agree with you. But the road back to prosperity is likely to be a long one, and these consumer lenders are notorious for stock volatility. I want to see complete capitulation before I step into this mess, and I haven't seen that yet. Moreover, I'm not sure there are any consumer finance cherries out there to be picked by the survivors.

Aiful says they'll earn about 270 yen per share this year. On July 24 they'll give us the April-June numbers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lower the forecast, and the shares take another drubbing. Somewhere there is a bottom of course. But I'm want to buy from someone who bought this 7 or 8 month "bottoming pattern", and then gets exhausted by a 25 percent drawdown from here. Otherwise, I can wait for good news and buy on the way up.

The Takefuji play here is much more reasonable I think; at least you are getting some serious yield for your risk. If you are in for a long ride and can stand drawdown, you're probably only out opportunity cost.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40369-big-mac-index-supports-japanese-bullishness?source=feed#comment-90673 90673
On June 1, 2005, the Nikkei 225 closed at about 11,350. On June 1 two years later it closed at 17,958. In case anyone is math challenged, that's a gain of about FIFTY-EIGHT PERCENT in two years. Mean reversion, you say???

Sure, most of the gain came in late 2005. So what? That kind of performance cannot continue forever. This is a market that has more than doubled since the spring of 2003. Yes, it was a depressed low, yada, yada, yada.

Moreover, Japan is now trading at better than 20x earnings by most estimates. Can it go higher? Sure. Can stocks in a mature economy with a potential growth rate of around 2 percent and a declining, aging population also go lower from here? You better believe it. Japanese stocks are presently priced for a continuation of good news. Anyone getting real greedy here may manage 10 percent before the end of the year, or may get a 10 percent haircut.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, this place is not exactly shareholder heaven. The cash yield is barely 1 percent, and managers will use equity warrants like artillery to keep it there.

A POSSIBLE currency play exists with EWJ and dollars, but there is absolutely no guarantee that the yen must rise appreciably from here against the dollar, an no guarantee that it won't be 130 by next year either.

I converted my first US dollars to Japanese yen in the winter of 1992-1993. I still remember getting 121 yen to the buck. Sure, the exchange rate has seen some wild gyrations since then, but look where we are today. Machinery orders were an upside surprise today; the market was up about six-tenths; virtually everyone is pricing in a BoJ rate hike next month. The yen sank nonetheless.

Whenever there is a severe economic disruption, or merely the threat of one, what currency does everyone flock to? The yen?

The BoJ is also likely to be VERY gradual in raising rates, particularly once the sales tax issue re-surfaces after the election. (It's a political IED that nobody wants to get anywhere close to until the election is over.) If commodities keep going higher, the Fed is likely to maintain the rate differential anyway. Then it gets real ugly anyway, as it is bound to get sooner or later.

Like I said, this place (Tokyo) is priced for only good outcomes, with few or no bumps in the road. I'm happy to entertain less risk here at the moment than I was willing to entertain a few years ago.]]> Mon, 09 Jul 2007 09:41:59 -0400
On June 1, 2005, the Nikkei 225 closed at about 11,350. On June 1 two years later it closed at 17,958. In case anyone is math challenged, that's a gain of about FIFTY-EIGHT PERCENT in two years. Mean reversion, you say???

Sure, most of the gain came in late 2005. So what? That kind of performance cannot continue forever. This is a market that has more than doubled since the spring of 2003. Yes, it was a depressed low, yada, yada, yada.

Moreover, Japan is now trading at better than 20x earnings by most estimates. Can it go higher? Sure. Can stocks in a mature economy with a potential growth rate of around 2 percent and a declining, aging population also go lower from here? You better believe it. Japanese stocks are presently priced for a continuation of good news. Anyone getting real greedy here may manage 10 percent before the end of the year, or may get a 10 percent haircut.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, this place is not exactly shareholder heaven. The cash yield is barely 1 percent, and managers will use equity warrants like artillery to keep it there.

A POSSIBLE currency play exists with EWJ and dollars, but there is absolutely no guarantee that the yen must rise appreciably from here against the dollar, an no guarantee that it won't be 130 by next year either.

I converted my first US dollars to Japanese yen in the winter of 1992-1993. I still remember getting 121 yen to the buck. Sure, the exchange rate has seen some wild gyrations since then, but look where we are today. Machinery orders were an upside surprise today; the market was up about six-tenths; virtually everyone is pricing in a BoJ rate hike next month. The yen sank nonetheless.

Whenever there is a severe economic disruption, or merely the threat of one, what currency does everyone flock to? The yen?

The BoJ is also likely to be VERY gradual in raising rates, particularly once the sales tax issue re-surfaces after the election. (It's a political IED that nobody wants to get anywhere close to until the election is over.) If commodities keep going higher, the Fed is likely to maintain the rate differential anyway. Then it gets real ugly anyway, as it is bound to get sooner or later.

Like I said, this place (Tokyo) is priced for only good outcomes, with few or no bumps in the road. I'm happy to entertain less risk here at the moment than I was willing to entertain a few years ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32998-nikko-cordial-southeastern-asset-management-won-t-sell-at-1700-yen?source=feed#comment-84699 84699
And they probably won't tender, either, but this is just a noise-making repetition of what they have already said.

Some wag once said that you should never confuse a bull market with brains.

Again, if I was Citi I'd pay the 5 yen per share and walk, and let these fools explain to "their clients" how they fumbled a touchdown on the one-yard-line and then kicked it through the back of the end zone.

Of course Mr. Prince could rescue them, but he also could play it smart and pick up a ton of shares below 1700 simply by pulling the rug out from under these guys who are really overplaying their hands.]]> Sun, 22 Apr 2007 04:28:54 -0400
And they probably won't tender, either, but this is just a noise-making repetition of what they have already said.

Some wag once said that you should never confuse a bull market with brains.

Again, if I was Citi I'd pay the 5 yen per share and walk, and let these fools explain to "their clients" how they fumbled a touchdown on the one-yard-line and then kicked it through the back of the end zone.

Of course Mr. Prince could rescue them, but he also could play it smart and pick up a ton of shares below 1700 simply by pulling the rug out from under these guys who are really overplaying their hands.]]>