Lance

Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation

Let the record show that this moron never responded to any comment posted here, and more importantly, his "average-down buy" (yeah, even "pro" posters can be stupid) is now down about, oh gee, another 50 percent from his average-down entry price.

Buy more here? ^_-

God, I want to get notified so I can take the other side of some of these trades.

Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation

So ... you make a tout ... you get your behind handed to you on a silver platter ... people ask for clarification about your tout ... and you are too weak to even reply.

You don't belong here. Got that? Anybody can recommend anything. People with guts stand behind their recommendations, or at least offer explanations.

You ran away and hid. Pitty the bastards that listened to you.

Lance

Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation

I am NOT going to let this go away. Not because you were wrong, but because you refuse to say anything about it.

Either you respond to your mistakes, or you don't deserve to be a featured poster ... anywhere.

What say you? Silence when your picks go down the toilet?

How professional.

Are you going to wait for 2012 and then claim victory? Your position is FAR underwater; much more than prudent money management would allow.

What say you, wimp?

Lance

Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation

Not to beat a dead horse here, but do you follow up on any of these train wrecks?

This tout is now about 50 percent of your entry price (as of yesterday). I didn't buy it, which is probably obvious from my previous comments. Moreover, given the industry meltdown, I didn't enter around 2200 either. There simply is no way to manage a trade with reasonable risk when these companies are just pancaking.

But you put it out there, and you should follow up on your trades.

Lance

Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation

That didn't take long.

Aiful traded at 2,500 today, August 15.

Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation

The stock is probably not going to turn you into a "jumper", but I'd like it a lot more at about 2500 yen, maybe 2200.

Your numbers are old, however. The 1.82 yield you quoted is based on the last dividend of 60 yen per year. But Aiful is only projecting 40 yen this year, so the yield is only about 1.22 percent, which means you really aren't getting much more return for assuming more risk than companies with fewer headaches may give you.

This is bottom-picking for sure, and of course everyone wants to buy bottoms. But these companies have not only taken huge financial hits (about five years of earnings to the red last year in the case of Aiful, and this was what they were earning when they basically had a license to print money), they have become pretty much social lepers.

You are saying Aiful will survive, and I tend to agree with you. But the road back to prosperity is likely to be a long one, and these consumer lenders are notorious for stock volatility. I want to see complete capitulation before I step into this mess, and I haven't seen that yet. Moreover, I'm not sure there are any consumer finance cherries out there to be picked by the survivors.

Aiful says they'll earn about 270 yen per share this year. On July 24 they'll give us the April-June numbers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lower the forecast, and the shares take another drubbing. Somewhere there is a bottom of course. But I'm want to buy from someone who bought this 7 or 8 month "bottoming pattern", and then gets exhausted by a 25 percent drawdown from here. Otherwise, I can wait for good news and buy on the way up.

The Takefuji play here is much more reasonable I think; at least you are getting some serious yield for your risk. If you are in for a long ride and can stand drawdown, you're probably only out opportunity cost.