Lance

Buying Gold to Keep Up with Inflation

The bad news for equities is probably bad news for gold as well.

The Fed is not entirely stupid, and it realizes that the excess money creation has to be reversed as soon as economic conditions allow. They will probably act sooner than the equity market will prefer, and that may keep demand well at bay, which would not promise any return for gold investors either.

Inflation really takes off from a *combination* of money creation and strong goods demand. We'll have to wait for the latter to really materialize before we can understand Fed strategy, and if it is in front of or behind the curve. But we may have a while to wait for demand to develop to a point that it begins to push inflation. And without serious demand: no serious inflation.

Bespoke's Country Snapshot (5/6/08)

Japan in a "perpetual downtrend"? I guess perpetual would be since the end of last July, then. Prior to the end of last July, Japan spent nearly a year in an uptrend coming off the mid-year '06 worldwide equity snap-correction. Prior to that '06 correction, Japan had risen about 40 percent in the previous 12 months. So, no, hardly "perpetual" at all. While Japan has certainly lagged in some time frames (like the past 18 years as a time frame), it has not been, particularly recently, a perpetual laggard. It just seems that way to some people, especially to those who don't time the market very well.

If Not Now, When Mr. Bernanke?

If the Fed has to react to every market correction, then something is wrong with the market. If the market is going to "crash" unless the Fed acts, then something was already wrong with the market.

Maybe they want to do something. But maybe they want to do something at a time when the market isn't going to drive over them like cheap roadkill 5 minutes after they do it. You get more bang for your buck by picking your shots carefully. It's also very doubtful that the situation is that dire, except perhaps to people who thought S&P 1550 five years into a bull market was a good place to hop on board.

I'd like to see this panic extended a few days so I can buy some values. I don't need a 5 percent Fed-induced burp that will fade like last summer's suntan, thanks.