tom rocco

Why This Rally Will Continue

I agree generally with what you say; on the other hand, if you are 50% in cash, you may be 50% in stocks and bonds or even in real estate. that is a vote of confidence in the economy even if not optimism. And, if the Dow does go to 9500 in the next 6 months, that should be considered a continuation of the upward trend - not at all spectacular but not irrational either.

tmr


On Aug 13 10:30 AM gmwright wrote:

> It is difficult to say if there will be a crash/correction or not.
> Personally I think there will be and my portfolio is prepared for
> that. But unless by stating the rally will continue you mean we will
> hover around 9000-9500 I can't see how you can be right. How high
> so you expect the SP500 to rise in the next 6 months? 1200? With
> all the contraction since the glory days of 2007 I just don't see
> how things can climb to only 20% drop from those all-time highs.
> Of course it can be propped up by money injected from the Fed/government
> but then you are just riding an artificial wave and you better hope
> you time it right.
>
> At the moment I am 50% cash and plan to see how the autumn plays
> out and if things hold I will invest into solid dividend payers since
> I expect growth to be small and the market to slide sideways for
> the next 2-3 years barring any major corrections.

7 Low Debt Dividend Stocks

this is a useful analysis of dividend stocks; indeed, one of the few very useful analyses i have read lately. The weighting criteria are rational and explainable, etc.
I suppose i would only want to see the same kind of analysis done for highly regarded, long time dividend payers that are not on the S&P.

tom rocco