Dabbio

S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Numbers

There is a second derivative improvement. The questions is, is it permanent? It could be a turnaround, but I believe it is just a shelf.

As More Homes Fall Underwater, Trapped Americans Cannot Migrate

See also the prescient article in the May 2006 issue of Harper's Magazine, "The New Road to Serfdom: An Illustrated Guide to the Coming Real Estate Collapse," unfortunately now only available to subscribers. It had a little icon on major sub-sections showing a person chained to his house.

www.harpers.org/archiv...

I might be able to bootleg you a PDF copy.

Endless Winter for New Home Sales

One of the things that led us down the wrong road was tilting at windmills, railing about these anti-free enterprise bogeymen that Artful Dodger brings up yet again. If anything, too much free enterprise led to the excesses that built the bubbles.

What really did us in was 63 years of peace. Easy living softens you up, and it softens up civilization, any civilization. How come you don't comment on such obvious things as the laziness of the average American worker? Why you think the Japanese ate our lunch in the automobile market? We just are not sharp any more. Sorry.

A Robust Segment of the Housing Market

Actually, I did some checking, and I got it way wrong. The top 1 percent own 38 percent. The other 99 percent of us divide the remaining 62 percent of the wealth.

A Robust Segment of the Housing Market

There is a thing called inequality, growing wildly. It means that the US economy is bifurcating-- dividing into two economies: the 1 percent who own 20 percent, and the 80 percent who own the rest. The super-rich, and their housing values, will not be much affected, even in the later stages of the recession coming up. In fact, they will probably end up with an even greater share of the national wealth. But we love to believe that we can get in that class some day. You have better odds in the lottery.

Getting the Real Estate Crisis Right

I still see single sector thinking dominant. Look, consumption and employment are critically tied into housing. It was housing, cheap Chinese imports, and easy consumer credit that fueled the consumption binge. Now, we are going to see it work in reverse. (Except, let's hope the Chinese don't raise prices.) Even if people don't sell their houses, they are going to HAVE to cut back on consumption to make the higher payments. This is going to seriously impact profits and employment. And then people are going to HAVE to sell their houses. See where this leads?

NAR and Housing Forecasts

Worse still, however, would have been to delay his advice further. Better to take the hit now. If postponed further, the fall can only get worse. As Senator Claghorn said, however, "Them's my views. And if you don't like 'em... I'll change 'em!"

NAR and Housing Forecasts

I believe that Barry's advice to the NAR is correct, but should have been delivered on exactly the other side of the curve, i.e., in that 2003-2004 era, when things were shooting up. Delivered and, if received seriously, at this late date, will only exacerbate the decline. See, e.g., Charles Kindleberger's prescient www.amazon.com/Manias-...
and remember that you read it here first.

Housing Is Tumbling Even Faster Than Reported

Elasticity of supply, not demand.

Housing Is Tumbling Even Faster Than Reported

It's been well known forever that housing prices are "sticky downwards," that is, low negative demand elasticity. People will sit on (or in) their houses for longer than rational, for longer than say they were a stack of corn or other commodity of the same value. What sticky downwards implies for the end of the trend, however, is not a levelling. It is postponing the pain, which usually only makes the pain worse, not better, when it comes. The more that people hold back, in the vain hope that prices will level or return upwards, the more likely it is that there will be a bigger flood of housing coming into the market all at once-- later. Think of piling sandbags on a levee in hopes that the rain is about to end. It's why a bust is called a bust in both instances, and why it is the exact mirror of a boom.

November Home Sales Data Propel Homebuilder Stocks, Suggest Bottoming of Housing Market

If prices continue to fall for another couple of months, that will take the bloom of this particular rose. Buyers will not want to get back in, and the sales figures may well start to drop again.