Seeking Alpha

Azam O.

Azam O.
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Azam O.'s Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • WSJ: Yahoo set to invest in Snapchat at $10B valuation [View news story]
    True, however, it is important to understand the details of the deal presented. Firstly, if all investors and option holders are pitching in pro rata, then it does not really make a big difference at what valuation. Secondly, the round investment raised at 10B evaluation might be only 30 million dollars. Third, they might be pumping up the price for an upcoming IPO.

    On the other hand, it might be one of the dumbest thing MM will do! Time will tell.
    Oct 5, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Plus Twitch Equals A Whole New Game [View article]
    Hi Cheryl,
    It feels good to see other bulls on Amazon. Amazon valuation is highly misunderstood.
    *Amazon expenses many items and does not capitalise them.
    *People are using "Sales" instead of using Gross Merchandise Value and should include 3P sales estimate is 200B run rate.
    *Investors forget to account for AWS valuation. Estimated Value to be 80B.
    *Investors are using Price to Sales instead of EV to GMV. Example Costco's EV to GMV is at 0.46 times. Amazon is at 0.35 but at growth north of 20% compared to 7% for Costco (AWS value subtracted).
    Aug 30, 2014. 05:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TowerJazz: A Towering Double In Share Price [View article]
    This is a very interesting pick compared to IMOS or MU. What are your thoughts on the competition and supply demand factors? I do no think the competitive landscape is similar to MU or IMOS.

    Aug 27, 2014. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    I respectfully disagree with the author. Please look at the numbers:
    Free Cash Flow for 2013: Approx 9.6B (CFO-stock comp-CFI)
    That is an Enterprise Value to FCF ratio of 23 times with NO GROWTH (221B/9.6B).
    Add to that the many problems that are explained by Billy especially the cloud and you should get the picture about future top line growth and margin compression.

    Note: Some might believe I wrongly calculated FCF. Also, with regards to research bias, I suggest that IBM bulls read the bear articles and vice versa. I learnt that the hard way.
    Jun 4, 2014. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba confirms plans to list in the U.S. [View news story]
    IPO is too soon. Company is still in very high growth phase. I wish they would explain reasons to rush it.
    Mar 16, 2014. 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Investment Corp.: Investors Should Wait For More Clarity [View article]
    I believe this is a 'big picture' type of company. We are in the early innings of housing recovery and are way below historical averages. Second, FHA will pull back further than it already did, as both MGIC and RDN expect FHA share to decline from 60s to 25%. This is a growing market with very few players. It is also a very important industry to "Have your future now" ie debt.

    My main concern with MGIC is the first issue that you brought up. The risk to capital at a ratio above 20X does not leave a lot of ammunition. Compare this with Radian which has $800m of spare capital to play with.

    Still, I think one should value both companies on clear blue skies with minor legacy book impact. I believe we are three years from that point when earnings power fully materialise.
    Oct 21, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Earnings Guesstimates For Thursday [View article]
    Forgot to say thanks for the article. This is another confirmation for the brave.

    Note: For what its worth, I just found out Zacks Research has MU industry as number 1 out of 260. Also the company is Ranked 1.
    Oct 7, 2013. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Earnings Guesstimates For Thursday [View article]
    Your gross wafer calculations seems right, but probably a more accurate number to use is the number given by Kipp Bedard - Vice President, Investor Relations on the 3rd of Sept Conference.

    "lpida and combined with Rexchip add about 180,000 wafers a month to our base of about 360,000, so it’s pretty big increase."

    Therefore total is 540,000 wafers compared to your 585,000. However, it does talk about capacity increase in Singapore which should take it to your number.

    Oct 7, 2013. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Dilution Is Inevitable [View article]
    I urge you and everyone here to read Prof. Damodaran evaluation:

    Value is derived from 1.ROIC and 2. Revenue Growth. Period

    The main question that is in argument, I believe, is how much excess capacity does AVAILABLE assets provide. Do participants believe TSLA can reach 300,000 cars without any capital expenditure? If not what ratio are they providing of revenue to assets? I wish more effort goes in answering this single question.
    Sep 24, 2013. 03:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Market Makers [View article]
    Thanks for the MU articles Russ.
    It is very rare to find an SA contributor with detailed analysis of the business and its players, and not just the financials.
    Sep 16, 2013. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Market Makers [View article]
    Totally agree. I am always a genius once per economic cycle. I wonder why others don't envy me!!
    Sep 16, 2013. 12:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why Investors Should Celebrate Depressed Share Prices [View article]
    To the author and to all IBM bulls:
    I believe you will be celebrating a lot more in the future. IBMers are looking for articles that justify their actions and gives them more conviction. I really urge IBMers to read Arne Alsin's article on IBM for the other view.
    Sep 9, 2013. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Radian's Turnaround Is Real [View article]
    To the author,
    Thank you for the competitor's comparison you provided.

    May I ask what is your source? Particularly Essent! These guys are really steaming ahead. I checked their rates vs. Radian, and they seem to undercut Radian prices in SOME Singles E.g. LTV 90-95 with cov 16% and FICO 720-740 Radian 2.00% Essent 1.89%.

    Look forward to your thoughts.
    Sep 9, 2013. 04:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Radian's Turnaround Is Real [View article]
    I want to thank you for this article and this common sense reply. Radian was in survivor mode and denials is a way of managing cashflows. Management should be praised on their handling of these past critical quarters. Now that they are in much better shape, they are more comfortable in reinstating denials.

    I have biased view since I am long and feel the stock is worth $25 within 12 months. I very rarely have equity valuation enlightenment but fortunately I had it a year ago. But NOW, I am really wondering since I don't have a crystal ball, why aren't investors seeing what we are seeing (the normalisation of earnings, the housing market related to the affordability index, the new capital structure, the political parties view towards FHA, and other tailwinds). Where are the headwinds???
    Sep 8, 2013. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Is In The Black Again: Check What It's Worth [View article]
    I like your analysis Alex. However, I would have preferred if you had some analysis on the "Blackstone Holding Partnership Units" and their vesting over time. This is extremely crucial factor to understand by the investors here.

    Also I believe that all your ratios should be based on the "Estimated Economic Net Income Adjusted Units". For example, for the first time since IPO, the Price to ENI per adjusted units falls below 10 times, making the stock on a dilutive basis historically cheap.

    Note: please tell me how you arrived to dilution effect is 20 times.

    Aug 25, 2013. 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment