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cbryant1990

cbryant1990
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  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Update [View instapost]
    Justin,

    Heres an article from the Cancer Letter that suggests that the generic version is 84 cents for a 50mg vial while Fusilev is about $50.

    www.bcm.edu/cancercent...
    Oct 5, 2009. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash [View article]
    Roberto, I must take exception to your points. I won’t take the time to cover them all, but lets look at the first 3.

    Point 1.
    There has been a lot of talk about insider trading. Recently Ben Siverman of insiderscore.com stated that for some company insiders “stocks are hitting valuation inflection points” when it seems appropriate for executives to take stock off the table. Also some executives get paid with stock and exercise their options according to SEC Rule 10b5-1. Joseph Moglia of Ameritrade comes to mind. In addition, Factset.com shows that insider buying outpaced selling by 2 to 1 in June. The norm is to sell 7 to 1. Factset also indicates very low selling in September. I have the chart if you would like a copy.

    Point 2.
    I agree that there has been short covering. There must be after such a move down. There always is in a bull market. However, volume has been respectable. The volume of shares traded is in line with 2005 and 2006 levels. Volume increased in 2007 and 2008 naturally because of the mass exodus. I would rather look at the money flow index which indicates that money started flowing into the market in March this year and is still rising.

    Point 3.
    The idea that everyone is fully vested is quite the opposite of the facts. The money in the market tells us that there is over a trillion dollars on the sidelines that has yet to participate in the rally. Also, momentum is a real phenomenon. It’s mass times velocity. High momentum is hard to get going and hard to stop. I expect to see the S&P reach 1200 by the year’s end.
    Oct 3, 2009. 12:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Technical Analysis of Spectrum Pharmaceuticals -Tutorial [View instapost]
    Thanks Justin. Thanks CR.

    Justin,

    While I have not agreed with you on you valuations of SPPI, and I have been pretty blunt about it, I have to say you are a gentleman and a scholar, and I do appreciate your in-depth research.

    CAB
    Sep 25, 2009. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getfugu - Is it real or is it Memorex? [View instapost]
    Siforus,

    I only reported what I had read. One has to admit that the evidence is piling up. With the recent press release that the voice app was not working and that a new update was available ( it has not materialized) by Mr. Stolar, one has to question the credibility of the CEO. Now with the recinding of the deals with both Spongetech and Vanity, this house of cards is falling down faster than I tought.


    On Sep 20 01:36 AM siforus wrote:

    > So what your trying to tell us is this is a big wide open exposed
    > scam that even my blind grandmother can see but know one is doing
    > anything about it?
    > Except you>>>>
    > Right: I'm really Elvis Presley, and I'll put my story on Wikipedia
    > so you can edit it for me.
    > All these fake companies and circles of lies and deceit, convicted
    > criminals.
    > Are you just rehashing old old news, rumors and merely made up lies
    > that have been passed down from basher to basher since this stock
    > started hitting new heights.
    > I see you have added something new to the story line
    > "Getfugu is making excuses for why Carl Freer is still a part of
    > Getfugu."
    > Says who? Did you call them and ask them that.
    > Your a lousy basher. I suggest you find another hobby Mr cbryant1990
    >
    >
    > Back To cbryant1990's Instablog HomePage »
    > Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within
    > the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited
    > or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors'
    > articles.
    Sep 25, 2009. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getfugu - Is it real or is it Memorex? [View instapost]
    Myassingh,

    I find it difficult the dismiss Carl Freer's involvelment as you so easily do. I should point out that I am long GFGU. I have an interest in seing this company become successful. But I cannot ignore the research that I have uncovered. Let me say, that I hesistate to call them facts since they are after all links to internet stories. But the SEC filings are facts. You may choose to ignore them, but I choose to publish them


    On Sep 19 01:11 AM Myassingh wrote:

    > Let's get Carl Freer out of discussion. Then you have Getfugu technology.
    >
    > An unbiased look at the technology Getfugu owns, have no match nor
    > any competition anywhere in the world.
    Sep 21, 2009. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Outlook Remains Very Promising [View article]
    Nibor,

    I think your move at $6.60 was a very good one. You purchased at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is a great place to buy on the way up. If SPPI rises steadily in the next few weeks, the next stop should be $7.65 with a few battles in between. I am long and looking for the same. If it drops, see my posts on the $6.33 level retracement.

    As for Justin's post, I have to give him props for the 13 picks. They are out there for everyone to see and they are simply a great set of picks. But his valuations of SPPI are suspect. First of all, who ever heard of valuing a company base upon sales or revenue? It's net earnings that matter. If we applied the same logic to Eli Lilly with $5.2B in sales, Justin would predict a stock price of $136.

    Obviously, this is incorrect. I have estimated my own projections for SPPI based upon earnings after expenses which suggest a price of $16.50 with Zevalin and Fuseliv approvals. I predict this price by the first quarter of 2010. Even at $16.50, SPPI looks like a great investment, and on that, I and Mr. Hall can agree.

    I'm not trying to bust your balls Justin, I just have a more conservative view than you. I will gladly eat crow in the first quarter next year if I am wrong.
    .
    Jul 28, 2009. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Undervalued Growth Company with Strong Late-Stage Pipeline [View article]
    Justin,

    I can appreciate your Clara Peller comment questioning the beef in my comments. Hey, one good turn deserves another. My comments on your approach as being non conservative was not my main point, but since I raised it, I'll tell you how I arrived at my numbers. There's no need to address "deep throat" issue since it has been resolved with today’s press release.

    Here is how I arrive at an $11-$12 price for SPPI:

    Zevalin had yearly sales of $16.4M in 2006 when Biogen owned the rights. That implies a paltry 656 patients paying $25K for the drug. In 2008 Zevalin sales were $11.4M representing 456 patients, and in the first quarter of 2009 Zevalin sales were $2.6M (RTT news June 25, 2009). The latest reports show Zevalin selling at a rate of $10.4M for 2009. Sales are dropping. We all know why. It’s the inertial resistance to Zevalin because Oncologist do not get paid for administering Radio immunotherapy .

    According to Spectrum Pharmaceutical’s estimates, the addressable population for Zevalin will increase by 18,000 patients with the approval. The current addressable population is 20,790 which is the number of people that die from the disease each year. (www.leukemia-lymphoma....). Assuming the same rate of prescription based on the increased population, sales of Zevalin has can be conservatively increased to approximately $20M in the next 12 months.

    Fuseliv is a different story. It is already being used off label. Sales have risen from $7.7M in 2008 to $9.4M in the first quarter of 2009 (RTT news June 25, 2009). Since Fuseliv is already used off label, we should expect the same rate of prescription for the next 12 months. That represents earnings of $37M. All totaled, Spectrum should have revenues of $57M from drug sales in the next 12 months. I assume that all other income and 20% of revenues to go towards research and development, purchasing new rights to drugs, and marketing. Assuming that the remaining income from Fuseliv and Zevalin add directly to the bottom line, SPPI should have $47M in profits. With 39M shares outstanding, I expect an EPS of $1.16 in 12 months. Conservatively, I attach a 10 to 1 ratio on the EPS to arrive at $11.69 because SPPI has, let's say, a checkered past.

    Your analysis is much different. It's base upon comparables of companies with an average market cap of $1.9B. You explain it with incomplete rationale about Spectrum's pipeline and earnings. Do you really think Spectrum's market cap is going to increase by a factor of 5 in twelve months. Think about it. Thats $8 in July, $10.50 in August, $12.50 in Sept, $15.00 in Oct, $17.50 in Nov.....

    And yes, Dick Bove did have it right.
    Jul 5, 2009. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cool $200 Billion for Bank of America? [View article]
    I have a specific challenge. Your article should have considered Dick Bovey's opinions to balance the piece.
    Apr 9, 2009. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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