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Dantes_Will

Dantes_Will
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  • CyberArk drops after announcing pre-lockup offering [View news story]
    Looks like the pump and dump is up.

    CYBR is trading at an extreme valuation compared to industry peers with faster growth, larger revenues, and larger addressable markets.

    This is EXACTLY what happened to FireEye last year. Tiny float. Pump up to $95. Massive secondary offering dropped share price down to below $30.

    It took FEYE nearly a year to digest that share dump while PANW hit all time highs. Looks like CYBR will be trading sideways for 2015 until that 2nd stock offering can be digested.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco products disappear from Chinese government buy list [View news story]
    This is China's MO. China will allow you to sell your new tech product for as long as they need to copy it. After China is satisfied with their clone of your product, they will find any excuse to start pushing you out of their market.

    See what China did to Qualcomm? That had nothing to do with the chip design excuse or "monopoly" excuse (ridiculous accusation in a country run by state owned monopolies).

    Cisco is next target for the CPC. Too much money to be made in networking equipment. Much easier to kick out the competition via any excuse.

    If Apple isn't bribing the right people in China, they'll be declared a "security threat" and banned right when XiaoMi comes out with their clone.... you think I'm joking...
    Feb 25, 2015. 02:57 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    Keep in mind modern day Cyber Security companies nearly the equivalent of defense contractors in terms of national security.

    Israel is constantly engaged in cyber attacks/defense & CYBR's main customer base are Israeli corporations.

    The Israeli government will 100% reject any foreign attempt to buy CYBR.
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Undervalued And Provides Vast Upside In 2015: Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    3WallPaul

    Great analysis of the financial side of where IBM is investing their money and what their expectations for return can be.

    If I may be so bold, essentially, you are providing concrete analysis to the idea that "IBM management is more interested in manipulating its finances as a cash cow for investors (Buffet) than investing in future growth opportunities."
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    Textbook short squeeze.

    Take a tiny, tiny float (less than 25mm shares for CYBR), couple that with a large short interest and you have a slaughter of shorts as they panic cover.

    Couple that with a few momo gamblers and newbie investors that just watched Cramer scream "cyber securitay!!!" on tv, and you get a temporary irrational runup.
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    scottsdalem - 'Looks like some new ETF and mutual funds may be buying this stock indirectly without realizing the valuation.'

    From what I see, the microscopic float of CYBR is causing this dramatic squeeze. Doesn't look like consistent institutional accumulation.

    Maybe a few small hedge shops looking for a quick flip, but institutional investors are not gamblers, they are not buying into CYBR at these prices.
    Feb 21, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    Agreed. CYBR is very alluring to gamblers addicted to the thrill of watching a stock 'multiply day after day.'

    Gamblers love to cite past performance as an indicator of future gains, and expects the stock to run forever.

    These are the type of guys jumping in at $65 thinking the stock will double again in 3 months.
    Feb 21, 2015. 10:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    CYBR's growth is partly attributed to picking the low hanging fruit of Israeli based companies. This is where they generate the majority of their earnings, at home.

    As CYBR competes in Europe and America, their margins drop significantly. This is why CYBR issued lukewarm Q1 earnings guidance. CYBR is guiding for dramatic increase in cost of sales as they need to invest more in growth on the international market.
    Feb 21, 2015. 03:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CyberArk Software: A Bubble Ready To Burst? [View article]
    There is a huge disconnect between CYBR's run up, VS the rest of the cyber industry valuation.

    CYBR is unique in that it has the smallest stock float of all cyber security companies while sporting one of the highest short ratios.

    IMO, this irrational run up is more an example of panicked short covering, rather than buyers actually believing in CYBR's current valuation.
    Feb 21, 2015. 03:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung jumps deep into mobile payments [View news story]
    Plenty - "So they are 20 years ahead of Apple."

    You mean the Samsung auto venture (SMI) that that was so poorly conceived it lasted about a year before samsung ditched the majority stake to renault.

    And Renault (RSM) is the butt of all jokes in Korea. Even Daewoo and Kia made fun of Ranault cars. Let that sink in for a minute.

    In american terms, RSM makes autos the equivalent of the legendary Ford Pinto, and Dodge Neon.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung jumps deep into mobile payments [View news story]
    I really hope Apple keeps up the rumor of them buying Tesla.

    By 2016, Samsung will probably buy out Kia in a another half baked attempt to copy/front run Apple.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Is Undervalued And Provides Vast Upside In 2015: Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    lbr83 -

    Agreed. IBM is still making a living off of legacy business. Large capital investments into datacenters, cloud solutions, security have severely lacked the returns and market share gains of smaller, faster growing competitors.

    IBM should look into acquiring growth instead of paying dividends.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Apple's New iPhones Initiate Peak Android? [View article]
    Android dominates market share because its devices are so cheap, it is able to convert something like 85% of feature phone users to their first smartphone.

    This is also part of the reason android users don't spend any $ on android devices.

    Apple then poaches (and retains) 35% of Android customers every year, and retains roughly 85% of those new converts.

    Every year, Android has a smaller feature phone user base to convert while a large chunk of its mature customers switches to, and stays with, iOS.

    The biggest threat to Android is actually from the Chinese and Koreans, who are unabashedly copying Android source code and renaming it COS and Tizen. Pretty soon, Samsung & Xiaomi will be loading Baidu and other 'Chinawares' collecting their own revenue instead of paying Google.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:41 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cybersecurity stocks rise ahead of executive order [View news story]
    CYBR market cap 1.7BB. = 17x 2015 forward earnings.
    FEYE market cap 6.3BB = 15x 2015 forward earnings.
    PANW market cap 11BB = 19x 2015 forward earnings.

    CYBR Revenue of $36.3M (+81.0% Y/Y)
    FEYE Revenue of $143M (+149.7% Y/Y)
    PANW (projected) rev $195MM (projected ~ 50% Y/Y)
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Going Global Part IV: And The Money Keeps Rolling In... [View article]
    Or you could be looking at the next AOL or Myspace before Google and Facebook came along. First movers aren't always at an advantage in the digital world.

    Case in point, Alibaba has already built up a reputation with international buyers as risky with fraudulent and sub par quality products.

    It's just ripe for JD.com or another Chinese mover with better quality & vendor control, to eat its market share and become the next big thing.

    Remember when HTC was supposed to be the Asian Apple and dominate China just a few short years ago? And now, it's all about Xiaomi as the "next great thing" and Apple killer.

    Things change fast in the Chinese market. Attempting to predict a business 5 to 10 years out is a delusional fool's quest.
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
387 Comments
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