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Dantes_Will

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  • IBM Is Undervalued And Provides Vast Upside In 2015: Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    lbr83 -

    Agreed. IBM is still making a living off of legacy business. Large capital investments into datacenters, cloud solutions, security have severely lacked the returns and market share gains of smaller, faster growing competitors.

    IBM should look into acquiring growth instead of paying dividends.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Apple's New iPhones Initiate Peak Android? [View article]
    Android dominates market share because its devices are so cheap, it is able to convert something like 85% of feature phone users to their first smartphone.

    This is also part of the reason android users don't spend any $ on android devices.

    Apple then poaches (and retains) 35% of Android customers every year, and retains roughly 85% of those new converts.

    Every year, Android has a smaller feature phone user base to convert while a large chunk of its mature customers switches to, and stays with, iOS.

    The biggest threat to Android is actually from the Chinese and Koreans, who are unabashedly copying Android source code and renaming it COS and Tizen. Pretty soon, Samsung & Xiaomi will be loading Baidu and other 'Chinawares' collecting their own revenue instead of paying Google.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:41 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cybersecurity stocks rise ahead of executive order [View news story]
    CYBR market cap 1.7BB. = 17x 2015 forward earnings.
    FEYE market cap 6.3BB = 15x 2015 forward earnings.
    PANW market cap 11BB = 19x 2015 forward earnings.

    CYBR Revenue of $36.3M (+81.0% Y/Y)
    FEYE Revenue of $143M (+149.7% Y/Y)
    PANW (projected) rev $195MM (projected ~ 50% Y/Y)
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Going Global Part IV: And The Money Keeps Rolling In... [View article]
    Or you could be looking at the next AOL or Myspace before Google and Facebook came along. First movers aren't always at an advantage in the digital world.

    Case in point, Alibaba has already built up a reputation with international buyers as risky with fraudulent and sub par quality products.

    It's just ripe for JD.com or another Chinese mover with better quality & vendor control, to eat its market share and become the next big thing.

    Remember when HTC was supposed to be the Asian Apple and dominate China just a few short years ago? And now, it's all about Xiaomi as the "next great thing" and Apple killer.

    Things change fast in the Chinese market. Attempting to predict a business 5 to 10 years out is a delusional fool's quest.
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Going Global Part IV: And The Money Keeps Rolling In... [View article]
    Ja1i1 >

    Alibaba's revenue growth looks decent right now with a huge contribution from Alipay.

    Just wait until Jack Ma rips out a chunk of Alibaba's revenues and take Alipay public next year. All of a sudden, Alibaba's "organic" growth drops by 30%.

    And guess what? In Chinese regulations, Jack Ma can take profitable units of BABA and take them Private. This has happened at Baidu, and countless smaller Chinese companies.

    The goal is to keep BABA share price inflated until the massive lockup expiration. After the dumping, Jack Ma will split off Alipay and quietly sell to himself certain BABA units for pennies on the dollar.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany, ECB take tough line against Greece [View news story]
    Well, the Greeks did coin the phrase "Resting on one's laurels".
    Jan 31, 2015. 05:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Plunges As Post-IPO Honeymoon Ends [View article]
    Yeah, you'll need that 10-25 year patience.

    Long term investors are very likely looking at years before share price recovers to recent highs.

    Alibaba will have a MASSIVE lockup expiration coming up. 13% of the float was released during IPO. An additional 17.5%, 91 days after IPO. That means only 31% of shares released by March 2015.

    A ridiculous 64% of the shares will be dumped on the public 366 days after IPO. That WILL crash Alibaba's share price in September 2015 and keep it down until all that float can be digested.

    I have never seen any major IPO with so many shares locked at the start, (driving up share price), only to have 80% of the float dumped onto the public a year later.
    Jan 30, 2015. 05:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Q3 FY2015 Results [View article]
    gentry6748 is absolutely right.

    Alibaba will have a MASSIVE lockup expiration coming up. 13% of the float was released during IPO. An additional 17.5%, 91 days after IPO. That means only 31% of shares has been released by March.

    A ridiculous 64% of the shares will be dumped on the public 366 days after IPO. That WILL crash Alibaba's share price in September 2015 and keep it down until all that float can be digested.

    I have never seen any major IPO with so many shares locked at IPO, (driving up share price), only to have 80% of the float dumped onto the public a year later.

    Long term investors are very likely looking at years before share price recovers to recent highs.
    Jan 30, 2015. 05:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Plunges As Post-IPO Honeymoon Ends [View article]
    Author forgot to mention one major factor that will keep Alibaba down for at least the next year and a half:

    Alibaba will have a MASSIVE lockup expiration coming up. 13% of the float was released during IPO. An additional 17.5% was released 91 days after IPO. That means only 31% of shares has been released.

    A ridiculous 64% of the shares will be dumped on the public 366 days after IPO. That WILL crash Alibaba's share price in September 2015 and keep it down until all that float can be digested.

    Long term investors are very likely looking at years before share price recovers to recent highs.
    Jan 30, 2015. 05:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba -9.1% on revenue miss, low take rate; Yahoo -6.7% [View news story]
    Look for a massive dump and profit taking from the Chinese market when lockup expires.

    They are very nervous over there. More and more Chinese gamblers are staring at margin calls coming in every week.
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba -9.1% on revenue miss, low take rate; Yahoo -6.7% [View news story]
    > someday when BABA start to charge seller fee transaction by transaction, like Ebay. Imagine what will happen then...

    If Alibaba does that, the sellers will migrate to a competing platform. Alibaba's merchants are money wise, cash strapped manufacturers. Not mom & pop ebay hobby sellers.
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba -9.1% on revenue miss, low take rate; Yahoo -6.7% [View news story]
    If you are an investor, not a trader, this quarter's balance sheet should be a major warning sign that you are holding something rotten. The over hyped revenue growth that never materialized and the dubious earnings numbers screams "AUDIT!"

    How long before a shop like Muddy Waters comes in with "fraud accounting" allegations and drops the stock by a third?

    Welcome to investing in Chinese companies.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:13 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba beats by $0.06, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Because this company isn't just priced for perfection. It's priced for a ridiculously high valuation even after exponential earnings growth.

    Archman hit the nail on the head. This is a classic case of Wall Street front running the investors on a big name IPO. Everyone and their Auntie in China wants to buy "Baba" on blind faith, using margin, with little due intelligence.

    The way the company is valued by wall street, it needs to grow exponentially just to justify its ridiculous price. And it may not justify this price for many years.

    "If you are an investor" this should be the a major warning sign that you are holding something rotten. The overhyped revenue that never materialized and the extremely dubious 'earnings' numbers that screams AUDIT!

    How long before a shop like Muddy Waters comes in with "fraud accounting" accusations and drops the stock by a third?

    Welcome to investing in Chinese companies.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody’s downgrades Russia to brink of junk [View news story]
    Odd so many trolls are on here loving Putin.

    More than a few honest Russians lost half their life savings this year due to Putin's little adventures. As long as Oil stays low, which it will, working Russians will continue to suffer, likely for years.

    Credit is already freezing up. Inflation is touching 10% and consumers with dwindled savings cannot keep up. Small businesses are staring at a very difficult future.
    Jan 18, 2015. 09:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Capital Flight: What Western 'Analysts' Forget [View article]
    OPEC would be a worthwhile comparison if it was controlled entirely by a single dictator.

    You're essentially betting your future on the whims of an angry little sociopath with a big ego. More than a few Russians and investors lost half their life savings over the past year. And you're still trying to pimp Russia as the 'next big thing.'
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:41 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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