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Dantes_Will

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  • BlackBerry cancels FQ2 CC [View news story]
    So, Thorston Heins, and the board, after having put BBRY's shareholders through the ringer with one perceived blunder after another, decide that they want to use Prem Watsa's fake deal as an excuse to hide from having to answer for their actions.


    Oh... and in case anyone missed it. Thoston and Bidulka dumped 51% of their newly vested BBRY shares on, get this, 9/20... right before they released their warning and 1BB write down. Of course since they only dumped 51%, it's legal under Canada law.

    This is bad beyond words.

    This is like a sinking ship... but the captain and crew are climbing over the women and children to get to the life boats first. And they'll be stuffing those life boats with their own gold... no room for passengers.
    Sep 25 09:04 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Want To See In Nokia's Q2 Report [View article]
    Be careful reading Kesarios' Nokia articles. This snake is very tricky.

    "Nokia estimates it closed Q2 with gross cash of €9.2B-€9.7B and net cash of €3.7B-€4.2B, down from €10.1B and €4.5B at the end of Q1; if the deal were to have closed in Q2, net cash would be at €2B-€2.5B. "

    He already knows Nokia's cash positions since NOK made this public statement on July 1st.

    So he makes it sound like we should be disappointed NOK's short term cash position doesn't dramatically improve.

    This is his real position and holding: BBRY. Take a look at his article history.

    "I expect this company (BBRY) to fully come back from the dead to its former glory status. The reason for this is simple. It has a unique ecosystem and will carve its own little niche in the space. BlackBerry has nothing to fear from anyone except itself. It is not threatened by Google (GOOG), or Apple (AAPL) or anyone. As long as it has something different to offer and stand out, it will prevail and do just fine "

    You're not as clever as you think George.
    Jul 17 07:15 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
    It should be pretty obvious that Oppenheimer and BofA (Merril) are doing exactly what Goldman and Morgan Stanley were doing last quarter.

    Last quarter, Goldman and MS kept putting out "investment alerts" about how Nokia was going bankrupt and telling Joe Public to sell, sell, sell!

    While the public was selling, GS increased their NOK holdings by 100% while MS increased their position by 700%!!

    If you still believe the investment houses are spending their own money and time to put out these articles to help the public investor, then you've learned nothing from 2008.
    Dec 11 05:00 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Much Needed Breakthrough Could Be Somewhere In China [View article]
    The key is the subsidy for the Lumia 920. Chinese consumers are very price sensitive compared to Westerners.

    This is also a huge head start for Nokia over Apple in China. CM has been rejecting the Apple subsidy demands for years. And now, with China Mobile's 2013 subsidy budget gone*, this will likely lock out Apple to CM's 700 Million+ customers for the entirety of 2013.

    *China Mobile sets a fixed "smartphone subsidy budget" at the beginning of each year. 2013 year estimates are around 3.5 billion. With the huge cost of the Lumia subsidy, there is now very little chance of Apple landing their subsidized deal with CM.
    Dec 31 03:40 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia's New Lumia Phones Live Up To Investor Hopes And Hype? [View article]
    This hit piece is full of outdated information or outright misinformation.

    E.G. "China Mobile will not have a subsidy for the Lumia 920T" has never been stated by the carrier or Nokia. It is ignorance by the author or just an outright lie.

    "Customers willing to sign a new 2-yr contract agreement with China Mobile for 388 CNY (about $62) per month will be able to pay just 1 yuan for the Lumia 920T."
    Dec 19 09:41 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good hardware only goes so far when its app ecosystem is deficient: that's the common argument found in The Verge's reviews of Nokia's (NOK) flagship Lumia 920 and Google/Samsung's Nexus 10 tablet. The 920's display, design, and (with some qualifications) camera get high marks, and so do the 10's display (considered on par with the iPad), performance, and battery life. But with Windows Phone and (as far as tablets go) Android still badly trailing the competition in terms of app support, neither product gets a resounding endorsement. (WP8 review) (app efforts: I, II[View news story]
    Actually, this is not a good point. Judging an OS by the number of apps is entirely an exorcise for the uninformed.

    Are you really proud that your "ecosystem" has 20,000 apps that do nothing but make fart noises, or show a 30 second cartoon?

    Even by Apples admission, something like 150,000 apps are never even downloaded once. Meanwhile, the important apps that are most used by far (maps and navigation) are subpar compared to the competition.
    Nov 2 03:40 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
    And I enjoy seeing 3d rate boutique operations like Timing Best Buy putting out a laughably poorly written article in the hopes of supporting their short position.

    It's worth of respect! Real man!

    Mar 7 02:25 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Beats Google For A Mapping Deal With Toyota [View article]
    People don't realize the huge revenue potential Nokia's Location & Commerce division has in the auto market.

    Phase 1: Integrate Nokia's technology into every major auto manufacturer. (85% market penetration)

    Phase 2: Introduce location based advertising & services: think yelp restaurant reviews, sales promotions, coupon offers etc. all based on location, on the go.
    Feb 1 07:12 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Positive News Followed By What? [View article]
    "Positive news followed by what?"

    If you have to ask this, then you haven't been following NOK.

    Q4 2012 numbers were a bit disappointing due to Qualcomm Snapdragon supply issues, but still solid enough to be beat all analysts expectations across the board.

    Q1 2013 will also be a very critical quarter as the China and India sales may determine NOK's future. Nokia currently has the Lumia 920 heavily subsidized by all 3 major Chinese carriers totaling 1.4 BILLION potential customers. All of whom have never been offered a free phone on contract before (as this is new to China.)

    As long as Qualcomm fixes their Snapdragon yield (which they said is no longer an issue in 2013), the Lumia sales in China could provide a nice earnings surprise come Q1 reporting.

    Take profits? Nokia is priced for bankruptcy, with the sum of its parts worth much more than its share price. This runup has been completely against analysts headwind - 9/10 analysts still have a sell rating on the company with outdated bankruptcy data from last May.

    Upgrades and the real run-up after $5 institutional support hasn't even begun yet.
    Jan 15 01:59 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia To Issue Convertible Bonds - Does It Matter? [View article]
    Nice to see an article without pump or short spin.

    UBS released a note on the issue:

    Nokia has €3.6bn of net cash and €8.8bn of gross cash currently so there was no imminent liquidity issue but it is appropriate to shore up the balance sheet now in our view before it gets worse (UBSe 2012E FCF of c€-1bn). Also the coupon appears reasonable to us given the company’s credit ratings have been lowered to junk. Overall we view it as a positive that the balance sheet is being shored up.
    Oct 23 04:41 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Apple Hasn't Screwed Up [View article]
    There is no need to write an entire article to correct all the errors in Ashraf's article.

    Most of us here that have been on SA long enough are fully aware of Ashraf publishing bashing articles on stocks which he will later 'change his mind on' and pick up a position in.

    Does SA ever verify their authors' disclosures? Vetted their accounts & their friends' & families? If the SEC can barely enforce this, then how could SA?
    Jan 21 09:12 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Adduplex Data Suggest Nokia Sold Over 2 Million Lumia 520s In July [View article]
    Nicely done Chandan.

    I'm in the 'market share first, margins later' crowd. I know, really going out on a limb on B school 101 stuff here...

    But the time proven consumer model is to establish market and mindshare first. Then work on supply chain, economies of scale, and other cost cuts later. Nokia has proven in the past that they can do very well producing quality commodity products while generating relatively good margins.

    Samsung is a great example. If you recall, HTC was top Android dog for the first few years. That is, until Samsung flooded the world with 30 different Android models covering every price point and market.

    The result, Samsung not only grew their low end share, but was able to leverage their perceived quality into dramatic sales for their high end devices, starting with the Galaxy line.

    You'll see some similarities in these strategies as Nokia is also pushing a range of devices from the most frugal 520 to the high end 1020. Even better, the upcoming Phablet will give NOK a spec list that should make it one of the 3 highest spec'd phones this 2H. A beefy 41MP camera will allow it to hold its own against the top vendors like Apple, Samsung, or Sony.

    So there may be a margin squeeze in Q3, but I expect this to be short term anomaly, not a long term trend.
    Aug 16 06:51 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James[View news story]
    So this is the same Deutsche Bank that told investors that NOK is going bankrupt, while buying large quantities of shares last quarter?

    Or like how Goldman Sachs was telling the public that NOK will be worthless, while increasing their holdings in Q3 from 61M shares to 116M?

    If you believe the investment houses are putting out this info to help the investing public, then you've learned nothing from 2007.
    Nov 29 05:59 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    Something BBRY speculators still stay willfully ignorant of:

    BBRY revealed in its earnings debacle that it still has 2.9 Billion in off books vendor commitments, even after the 1BB writedown, for Q series and some Z series devices. That means another MAJOR write off is inevitable.

    Selling BES or Patents will go to pay the 2.9 Billion BBRY owes its vendors. Dreaming that this value will somehow make it down to the share price is exactly what it is.... just a dream.

    Even worse, if BBRY dumps BES, BBM, or Patents, the company will have no value left for anyone. Maybe TH, the board, and Watsa can still loot the corpse for a few gold nuggets, but the shareholders will be screwed.
    Oct 5 02:06 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Upgrades Will Create More Upside [View article]
    Keep in mind that Q1 2013 is ripe as a set up for a surprise beat.

    1) Nok can give lowball projections without objection because of the sell side analysts still think NOK is going bankrupt.

    2) Q1 '13 will cover Chinese New Years, China's biggest sales season.

    3) Nokia's heavy subsidies for the 920 offered by China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, are unprecedented in the country. This could be a sales windfall if marketed correctly.

    4) Q1 will also start to count the Lumia 920 India sales as they were just introduced this week. The Nokia brand is still one of the most valued and trusted among Indian and Chinese consumers.
    Jan 11 12:27 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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