Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
It should be pretty obvious that Oppenheimer and BofA (Merril) are doing exactly what Goldman and Morgan Stanley were doing last quarter.
Last quarter, Goldman and MS kept putting out "investment alerts" about how Nokia was going bankrupt and telling Joe Public to sell, sell, sell!
While the public was selling, GS increased their NOK holdings by 100% while MS increased their position by 700%!!
If you still believe the investment houses are spending their own money and time to put out these articles to help the public investor, then you've learned nothing from 2008.
Nokia's Much Needed Breakthrough Could Be Somewhere In China [View article]
The key is the subsidy for the Lumia 920. Chinese consumers are very price sensitive compared to Westerners.
This is also a huge head start for Nokia over Apple in China. CM has been rejecting the Apple subsidy demands for years. And now, with China Mobile's 2013 subsidy budget gone*, this will likely lock out Apple to CM's 700 Million+ customers for the entirety of 2013.
*China Mobile sets a fixed "smartphone subsidy budget" at the beginning of each year. 2013 year estimates are around 3.5 billion. With the huge cost of the Lumia subsidy, there is now very little chance of Apple landing their subsidized deal with CM.
Will Nokia's New Lumia Phones Live Up To Investor Hopes And Hype? [View article]
This hit piece is full of outdated information or outright misinformation.
E.G. "China Mobile will not have a subsidy for the Lumia 920T" has never been stated by the carrier or Nokia. It is ignorance by the author or just an outright lie.
"Customers willing to sign a new 2-yr contract agreement with China Mobile for 388 CNY (about $62) per month will be able to pay just 1 yuan for the Lumia 920T."
Good hardware only goes so far when its app ecosystem is deficient: that's the common argument found in The Verge's reviews of Nokia's (NOK) flagship Lumia 920 and Google/Samsung's Nexus 10 tablet. The 920's display, design, and (with some qualifications) camera get high marks, and so do the 10's display (considered on par with the iPad), performance, and battery life. But with Windows Phone and (as far as tablets go) Android still badly trailing the competition in terms of app support, neither product gets a resounding endorsement. (WP8 review) (app efforts: I, II) [View news story]
Actually, this is not a good point. Judging an OS by the number of apps is entirely an exorcise for the uninformed.
Are you really proud that your "ecosystem" has 20,000 apps that do nothing but make fart noises, or show a 30 second cartoon?
Even by Apples admission, something like 150,000 apps are never even downloaded once. Meanwhile, the important apps that are most used by far (maps and navigation) are subpar compared to the competition.
Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
And I enjoy seeing 3d rate boutique operations like Timing Best Buy putting out a laughably poorly written article in the hopes of supporting their short position.
Nokia Beats Google For A Mapping Deal With Toyota [View article]
People don't realize the huge revenue potential Nokia's Location & Commerce division has in the auto market.
Phase 1: Integrate Nokia's technology into every major auto manufacturer. (85% market penetration)
Phase 2: Introduce location based advertising & services: think yelp restaurant reviews, sales promotions, coupon offers etc. all based on location, on the go.
Nokia: Positive News Followed By What? [View article]
"Positive news followed by what?"
If you have to ask this, then you haven't been following NOK.
Q4 2012 numbers were a bit disappointing due to Qualcomm Snapdragon supply issues, but still solid enough to be beat all analysts expectations across the board.
Q1 2013 will also be a very critical quarter as the China and India sales may determine NOK's future. Nokia currently has the Lumia 920 heavily subsidized by all 3 major Chinese carriers totaling 1.4 BILLION potential customers. All of whom have never been offered a free phone on contract before (as this is new to China.)
As long as Qualcomm fixes their Snapdragon yield (which they said is no longer an issue in 2013), the Lumia sales in China could provide a nice earnings surprise come Q1 reporting.
Take profits? Nokia is priced for bankruptcy, with the sum of its parts worth much more than its share price. This runup has been completely against analysts headwind - 9/10 analysts still have a sell rating on the company with outdated bankruptcy data from last May.
Upgrades and the real run-up after $5 institutional support hasn't even begun yet.
Nokia To Issue Convertible Bonds - Does It Matter? [View article]
Nice to see an article without pump or short spin.
UBS released a note on the issue:
Nokia has €3.6bn of net cash and €8.8bn of gross cash currently so there was no imminent liquidity issue but it is appropriate to shore up the balance sheet now in our view before it gets worse (UBSe 2012E FCF of c€-1bn). Also the coupon appears reasonable to us given the company’s credit ratings have been lowered to junk. Overall we view it as a positive that the balance sheet is being shored up.
Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James) [View news story]
So this is the same Deutsche Bank that told investors that NOK is going bankrupt, while buying large quantities of shares last quarter?
Or like how Goldman Sachs was telling the public that NOK will be worthless, while increasing their holdings in Q3 from 61M shares to 116M?
If you believe the investment houses are putting out this info to help the investing public, then you've learned nothing from 2007.
Nokia Upgrades Will Create More Upside [View article]
Keep in mind that Q1 2013 is ripe as a set up for a surprise beat.
1) Nok can give lowball projections without objection because of the sell side analysts still think NOK is going bankrupt.
2) Q1 '13 will cover Chinese New Years, China's biggest sales season.
3) Nokia's heavy subsidies for the 920 offered by China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, are unprecedented in the country. This could be a sales windfall if marketed correctly.
4) Q1 will also start to count the Lumia 920 India sales as they were just introduced this week. The Nokia brand is still one of the most valued and trusted among Indian and Chinese consumers.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Way to hide from the question.
Windows is by far out selling BB10, and your hanging your hat on "outperforming expectations." Who's expectations? Your Uncle Bob's?
If you have sales data that proves BB10 is outselling Win8, then show it. I'll but up $1000 of my own money to see you produce this. If you lose, you pay me $1000. Deal?
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
People who suggest NOK should switch to Android are really showing that they don't understand the industry.
They see Android's current share and growth and extrapolate that Android will be 95% of the market by 2018.
There is an ebb and flow to tech adoption. Android is nearing it's peak. The only reason for its market share growth is free legacy versions of Android being loaded in every cheap Chinese knockoff. Droid 4.0 is only a fraction of the droid growth... the vast majority are from Honeycomb or earlier.
Backward looking people like "Saints" here are likely terrible investors in real life. They chase past performance and always end up jumping in at or near the peak, before the collapse.
These are the same people that jumped in Apple at $700 because it also had growth & momentum at the time.
Windows 8 Tablets Are Already Displacing iPads With More To Come [View article]
What is this, the 90's? It's still trendy to bash MSFT?
Chrome book return rates are ridiculously high for us.
Number one reason given: No software. Our customers have been complaining that while the hardware is beautifully designed, all the chromebook is good for is to surf the web.
Nearly half of our customers thought they were buying an android machine and could run all the android apps. Nope.
Google is just confusing customers now with all their hacked variations of Android and now Chrome OS.
Nokia Fights The Attack Of The Android Drones [View article]
Another big boost to Nokia (which controls 75% of the Win8 mobile market) is Microsoft's heavy investment in Mobile Enterprise Management.
Home Depot isn't the only large corporation to drop Blackberry's Enterprise Server and their hefty fees. Other large corporations have been quietly switching over to Windows and iOS in '12, and is only expected to accelerate in '13.
2013 will see BBRY fall further out of the consumer consciousness and the rise of Win8 & Windows based Mobile Enterprise Mgmt in the corporate space.
Nokia doesn't need to defeat Android. It only needs Windows to be marginally successful and we'll have ourselves a true 3rd ecosystem.
This Could Be Huge: China Mobile To Subsidize Lumia 920 [View article]
Agreed.
If true, this subsidy is beyond HUGE. It is, essentially, the Chinese government (China Mobile) choosing to back Nokia over Apple.
Amusing. This very well could be the Chinese government's response to the US Congress labeling ZTE and Huawei as security threats. The Chinese are petty & vengeful in that way.
Having government backing = guaranteed success in China's shaded & bloated bureaucracy. Nokia winning China & India before Apple would definitely make the Lumia/Win8 a "disruptive" change in the mobile industry.
Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
Last quarter, Goldman and MS kept putting out "investment alerts" about how Nokia was going bankrupt and telling Joe Public to sell, sell, sell!
While the public was selling, GS increased their NOK holdings by 100% while MS increased their position by 700%!!
If you still believe the investment houses are spending their own money and time to put out these articles to help the public investor, then you've learned nothing from 2008.
Nokia's Much Needed Breakthrough Could Be Somewhere In China [View article]
This is also a huge head start for Nokia over Apple in China. CM has been rejecting the Apple subsidy demands for years. And now, with China Mobile's 2013 subsidy budget gone*, this will likely lock out Apple to CM's 700 Million+ customers for the entirety of 2013.
*China Mobile sets a fixed "smartphone subsidy budget" at the beginning of each year. 2013 year estimates are around 3.5 billion. With the huge cost of the Lumia subsidy, there is now very little chance of Apple landing their subsidized deal with CM.
Will Nokia's New Lumia Phones Live Up To Investor Hopes And Hype? [View article]
E.G. "China Mobile will not have a subsidy for the Lumia 920T" has never been stated by the carrier or Nokia. It is ignorance by the author or just an outright lie.
"Customers willing to sign a new 2-yr contract agreement with China Mobile for 388 CNY (about $62) per month will be able to pay just 1 yuan for the Lumia 920T."
Good hardware only goes so far when its app ecosystem is deficient: that's the common argument found in The Verge's reviews of Nokia's (NOK) flagship Lumia 920 and Google/Samsung's Nexus 10 tablet. The 920's display, design, and (with some qualifications) camera get high marks, and so do the 10's display (considered on par with the iPad), performance, and battery life. But with Windows Phone and (as far as tablets go) Android still badly trailing the competition in terms of app support, neither product gets a resounding endorsement. (WP8 review) (app efforts: I, II) [View news story]
Are you really proud that your "ecosystem" has 20,000 apps that do nothing but make fart noises, or show a 30 second cartoon?
Even by Apples admission, something like 150,000 apps are never even downloaded once. Meanwhile, the important apps that are most used by far (maps and navigation) are subpar compared to the competition.
Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
It's worth of respect! Real man!
Nokia Beats Google For A Mapping Deal With Toyota [View article]
Phase 1: Integrate Nokia's technology into every major auto manufacturer. (85% market penetration)
Phase 2: Introduce location based advertising & services: think yelp restaurant reviews, sales promotions, coupon offers etc. all based on location, on the go.
Nokia: Positive News Followed By What? [View article]
If you have to ask this, then you haven't been following NOK.
Q4 2012 numbers were a bit disappointing due to Qualcomm Snapdragon supply issues, but still solid enough to be beat all analysts expectations across the board.
Q1 2013 will also be a very critical quarter as the China and India sales may determine NOK's future. Nokia currently has the Lumia 920 heavily subsidized by all 3 major Chinese carriers totaling 1.4 BILLION potential customers. All of whom have never been offered a free phone on contract before (as this is new to China.)
As long as Qualcomm fixes their Snapdragon yield (which they said is no longer an issue in 2013), the Lumia sales in China could provide a nice earnings surprise come Q1 reporting.
Take profits? Nokia is priced for bankruptcy, with the sum of its parts worth much more than its share price. This runup has been completely against analysts headwind - 9/10 analysts still have a sell rating on the company with outdated bankruptcy data from last May.
Upgrades and the real run-up after $5 institutional support hasn't even begun yet.
Nokia To Issue Convertible Bonds - Does It Matter? [View article]
UBS released a note on the issue:
Nokia has €3.6bn of net cash and €8.8bn of gross cash currently so there was no imminent liquidity issue but it is appropriate to shore up the balance sheet now in our view before it gets worse (UBSe 2012E FCF of c€-1bn). Also the coupon appears reasonable to us given the company’s credit ratings have been lowered to junk. Overall we view it as a positive that the balance sheet is being shored up.
Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James) [View news story]
Or like how Goldman Sachs was telling the public that NOK will be worthless, while increasing their holdings in Q3 from 61M shares to 116M?
If you believe the investment houses are putting out this info to help the investing public, then you've learned nothing from 2007.
Nokia Upgrades Will Create More Upside [View article]
1) Nok can give lowball projections without objection because of the sell side analysts still think NOK is going bankrupt.
2) Q1 '13 will cover Chinese New Years, China's biggest sales season.
3) Nokia's heavy subsidies for the 920 offered by China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, are unprecedented in the country. This could be a sales windfall if marketed correctly.
4) Q1 will also start to count the Lumia 920 India sales as they were just introduced this week. The Nokia brand is still one of the most valued and trusted among Indian and Chinese consumers.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Windows is by far out selling BB10, and your hanging your hat on "outperforming expectations." Who's expectations? Your Uncle Bob's?
If you have sales data that proves BB10 is outselling Win8, then show it. I'll but up $1000 of my own money to see you produce this. If you lose, you pay me $1000. Deal?
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
They see Android's current share and growth and extrapolate that Android will be 95% of the market by 2018.
There is an ebb and flow to tech adoption. Android is nearing it's peak. The only reason for its market share growth is free legacy versions of Android being loaded in every cheap Chinese knockoff. Droid 4.0 is only a fraction of the droid growth... the vast majority are from Honeycomb or earlier.
Backward looking people like "Saints" here are likely terrible investors in real life. They chase past performance and always end up jumping in at or near the peak, before the collapse.
These are the same people that jumped in Apple at $700 because it also had growth & momentum at the time.
Windows 8 Tablets Are Already Displacing iPads With More To Come [View article]
Chrome book return rates are ridiculously high for us.
Number one reason given: No software. Our customers have been complaining that while the hardware is beautifully designed, all the chromebook is good for is to surf the web.
Nearly half of our customers thought they were buying an android machine and could run all the android apps. Nope.
Google is just confusing customers now with all their hacked variations of Android and now Chrome OS.
Nokia Fights The Attack Of The Android Drones [View article]
Home Depot isn't the only large corporation to drop Blackberry's Enterprise Server and their hefty fees. Other large corporations have been quietly switching over to Windows and iOS in '12, and is only expected to accelerate in '13.
2013 will see BBRY fall further out of the consumer consciousness and the rise of Win8 & Windows based Mobile Enterprise Mgmt in the corporate space.
Nokia doesn't need to defeat Android. It only needs Windows to be marginally successful and we'll have ourselves a true 3rd ecosystem.
This Could Be Huge: China Mobile To Subsidize Lumia 920 [View article]
If true, this subsidy is beyond HUGE. It is, essentially, the Chinese government (China Mobile) choosing to back Nokia over Apple.
Amusing. This very well could be the Chinese government's response to the US Congress labeling ZTE and Huawei as security threats. The Chinese are petty & vengeful in that way.
Having government backing = guaranteed success in China's shaded & bloated bureaucracy. Nokia winning China & India before Apple would definitely make the Lumia/Win8 a "disruptive" change in the mobile industry.