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Ckent323

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  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    David,

    For those fixed income was created.

    I am thinking CDs, treasury bonds and other low risk places to park the excess.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 13, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We The Stranded Asset? (And Other Updates) [View article]
    Mr. Grantham,

    Thank you for sharing your perspectives on "The Race of Our Lives Updated". I must say that look forward to reading your typically balanced and well reasoned commentaries.

    I have been building highly calibrated spaceborne instruments for the science community (via NASA/NOAA) for nearly 4 decades and I can vouch first hand on the quality of data that the scientists assessing climate change are using. While I am an engineer not a scientist I have seen some of the data as well as read many research papers and reports on the analysis of the data which gives me a reasonable understanding of the issues and conclusions they are wrestling with.

    I concur that feeding the growing population of this planet is an ever increasing challenge. At the root of that challenge, I believe, is access to potable water both for drinking and agriculture production.

    Relative to the US and in consideration of the historical outsize production from California in particular and the areas West of the Mississippi in general I am very concerned about the depletion (mining) of the groundwater resources of the West.

    For those who may not be versed in this issue I believe a good general perspective can be obtained by reading "Cadillac Desert:The American West and its Disappearing Water" 2nd ed, by Marc Reisner. It is a sobering historical account of water policy and land development in the western United States.

    It lays out a convincing argument that the serious long-term negative effects on the environment and water quantity we see today are the consequence of development-driven policies, formed when settling the West was the country's main concern.

    The implication is that these policies and he bureaucratic infrastructure that continue to operate by them largely remain in place and are an impediment to implementation of modern, better informed and necessary changes to facilitate the future availability of adequate water.

    To be sure the consensus realization of this problem is late in the game.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 12, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Eric,

    Thanks for sharing this work. It is thought provoking (clearly so from the comments).

    I think it is important for investors to distinguish real permanent loss of capital vs temporarily loss of value due to volatility. It is my perspective that stress testing market dips is more a test of temporary loss of value due to volatility than checking for permanent loss of capital.

    It is further my perspective that in particular for those of us who lean towards or are focused on DG companies that it is important to test for disruption of what makes DGI work and that is the continuously increasing dividends.

    One popular DGI approach, and the approach I see most responsibly advocated, is to select companies with a long history of earnings growth and dividend increases (or at least dividend increases) accompanied by manageable payout ratios and debt. This approach has accounted for the volatility of the market that your stress testing is checking against for (i.e. short term price and earnings volatility).

    For some a stress test of a DG portfolio might actually have been done at the time of selection of each of the companies if the CCC list was used and the companies selected are in the champions or challengers list (histories of annual uninterrupted dividend increases for at least 10 years).

    For those who might not have done that as part of the due diligence process prior to adding a company to their portfolio one could go to that list and check the DG history of each company of interest. Alternatively, the DG performance history of companies of interest can be easily checked at http://longrundata.com or at http://bit.ly/1Fg0SI5 (or at other sites with additional effort).

    Since DGI does not depend as much on price performance as it does on continuously increasing dividends there is less of a need to evaluate the price performance of the companies over time (stress testing for price). However, from a psychological perspective I think it is appropriate (and one might argue imperative to test the investors real tolerance for weathering a significant down market) to do a price stress test to understand how the apparent value of the company can vary over time and my tool of choice is F.A.S.T.Graphs. However, it is not free and one can get the price and dividend history free from a number of sites including Morningstar, Fidelity, Vanguard and others.

    Independent of the approach an investor takes I do agree that stress testing the portfolio by back testing it is a useful and informative exercise. However, the usefulness of the results of how one does that back test depends on the investment approach they are using. Therefore the stress testing should be conducted to stress test that approach. Relative to DGI the stress test should be about the stability and growth of the dividends not the temporary volatility of the price.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 11, 2015. 01:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chowder [View article]
    Nicholas,

    Cullen Roche, Tom Lydon, James Kostohryz, Paul Santos, Cam Hui, Doug Short, Dan Strack, Roger Nusbaum to name a few.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 9, 2015. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Buyandhold 2012 [View article]
    I don't know why I wrote commentators, I meant authors. I specifically omitted several commentators who I think have excellent insight and knowledge but have not written any articles.

    That written I see no reason to not interview them.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 7, 2015. 06:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chowder [View article]
    Nicholas thanks for publishing this interview and thanks to Chowder for agreeing to be interviewed.

    I like the pragmatic and seat-of-the-pants Chowder rule. In my short 6+ years of self directed investing it works and works well.

    I look forward to many more of these.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 7, 2015. 02:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Buyandhold 2012 [View article]
    Nicholas,

    Thanks for taking the initiative to write and share this series.

    I have been away from my computer on vacation in Hawaii for the past three weeks and just came across your interview of Chowder. I then followed the link from the previous articles to this first interview of Buyandhold2012.

    I look forward to reading many more.

    I have not read all of the comments but I am sure one or more of the following commentators has already been nominated for interview. Never-the-less here are my interviewee suggestions: Chuck Carnevale, David Van Knapp, David Fish, David Croscetti, Adam Aloisi, Casey Hoerth, Dividends4Life, Factoids, Eli Inkrot, Brad Thomas, Tim McAleenan, Mkie Nadel, Richjoy403, (certainly there are many other candidates).

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 7, 2015. 01:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    Dale,

    You purport that "the tens of thousands of professionals <implying ALL> have more access to the information and management, and more skill in knowing how to exploit that information <than individual investors>."

    I strongly suspect that is not universally and perhaps not even broadly correct.

    It is a certainty that there are many excellent professional advisers but just as certainly there are many poor and mediocre professional advisers. Depending on amount of experience, certification, employer some do little more than mimic what the people they work for tell them. Heck, lots of advisers do not do their own research, they rely on others to do it for them. Sorting out the good and truly knowledgeable advisers from the mediocre is no simple task.

    In contrast there are many individual investors who do their own research and work just as hard as the best professionals at furthering their financial/investing education. I am sure there are many very knowledgeable and successful individual investors who have never worked in the professional adviser field.

    To assume that individual investors are somehow not as smart or not as able to do as well or better than the poor or mediocre professional and perhaps even the very good adviser, seems a bit of a stretch to me. To be sure the professional adviser industry does not have a lock on smart.

    As a consequence of thinking about what it takes to be a financial adviser I have gone through several sample series 6 and series 65 exams and my take is that most of the questions in these exams is about knowing the laws around being a professional adviser rather than about an in depth understanding of investing and how to make intelligent investment decisions. Indeed there are many questions to test knowledge of finances and investing concepts but it seems to me the bulk of the test questions are on the rules and laws governing the industry. Nothing in the tests I saw relative to understanding and making investments were particularly difficult (as say compared to my college engineering, math and science courses) and I conclude that it does not require any particular brilliance to be a professional adviser. However, it clearly requires study, memory and reasonable understanding (much like the real estate professional exams).

    This is in no way meant to impugn any professional adviser only to point out that being licensed as a professional adviser is no guarantee that the person actually is (or will) able make decent investment decisions or give reasonable investment advise. Further, I see no reason why an individual cannot make as good or better investment decisions than the not so few mediocre and poor advisers and even the good advisers.

    I am sure there are others on SA who have taken these exams and have worked in the industry as well as have done individual investing that can give a better informed and less biased perspective than either you or I have. I hope this comment stimulates some informed input on this as would like to read those informed comments.

    Regards,

    Craig
    May 5, 2015. 05:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    BR,

    My take on this is that the market is a venue (e.g ebay) that facilitates buying and selling but has little to do with investing - in the long run.

    It is the owner ship of companies (albeit partial) and the performance of those companies over the long term - that is the investing.

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    In addition, my perspective is that I am buying pieces of (great) companies not buying stocks.

    I try not to get wrapped up in what the market is doing as much as getting into how the company is performing as well what is happening in the industry it is in.

    That does cause me to pay some attention to macro-economic issues that might impact the whole industry and company performance.

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    Chuck,

    Spot on.

    "it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." Charlie Munger

    Confirmed: http://preview.tinyurl...

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 16, 2015. 05:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rating Opportunities In REITs [View article]
    DH,

    Thanks for sharing this work. I like your presentation approach and graphics.

    In my opinion DLR and HCP are at fair value (within the range). Their prices do not have sufficient margin to fair value for me at this time.

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 15, 2015. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Doug,


    Yes, I saw the article by Anthony Lerner in which he touched on Genscapes Oil storage monitoring service (I would like to know how he gets that timely info - the service is expensive):
    http://tinyurl.com/png....

    It will be interesting to see what the weekly EIA report tomorrow shows.


    RE your P.S.: Thanks.

    I like to stick to conclusions based on facts and data as best I can. Far too many folks, with lots of help from the media, pick up bits and pieces of info and jump to erroneous conclusions because they did not take the time to understand the underlying data or information.

    Frankly, I think water storage is not a good long term solution for a lot of reasons (not appropriate to go into here). As a commentator above wrote a good place to start to understand is to read the book Cadillac Desert.

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 7, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Minor correction to my comment above after additional simple research. The largest dam removed so far in California is the 55 foot high Sweasey Dam on the Mad River which was completely silted in. None of the others on the list posted by darnoc111, above, exceeded 40 feet tall and few were taller than 20 feet. Many were in the 6 to 10 foot range. None of them were storage reservoirs for drinking water.

    Some information on many of these (and many others across the United States) may be found in: http://tinyurl.com/ksm...

    Now what about oil being up 9% or so over the past 2 days? (trying to get back on topic).

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 7, 2015. 02:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    User27205633,

    Please provide the reference for your comment that "This represents millions of acre feet of water storage lost"

    I did a little digging into that list and it appears to me that most of these were very small dams for catching flood debris and holding back local flood water not reservoirs for storing drinking water.

    I did not check every dam so perhaps you have information on the storage capacity you referred to.

    I note that there are people who actually put a lot of thought into the dam removal process: http://tinyurl.com/n5n...

    Regards,

    Craig
    Apr 7, 2015. 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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