Duderonomy

U.S. Economy: Now Comes the Hard Part

Nice that you had to parody the name of a Monty Python "movie" for your graph of doom. All economies around the world deal with "trust" (consumer confidence). If we believe that the economy will turn around, then it will turn around and the companies that survived this "downturn" will have large profits therefore inspiring consumer confidence. I say "downturn" because it very well might be coined a depression. To those who disagree with my comment and think I don't know what I'm talking about (or I'm rambling) you are very well right. Well written article.

Oil: 'To the Moon'?

Oil could shoot up, if you believe in a V shaped recovery. Course, Bear Sterns predicted oil was going to go to $200/barrel by the end of 2008. Now where are they?

It's Lost Jobs, Not Mortgage Payments

Phenominal timing and very intelligent move. No doubt you will make out like a bandit with interest rates at their lowest levels in decades.


On Apr 14 10:18 AM drbob66 wrote:

> I can. I sold mine in 2006 and retired...renting ever since, and
> waiting for prices to get attractive. I WILL be a buyer when we get
> there. I'm even considering buying a distressed property and becoming
> a landlord...which, I suspect, is what some other investors are doing
> now with foreclosed properties. It'll take TIME to work out, but
> eventually it will.
>
>

It's Lost Jobs, Not Mortgage Payments

It's more like these individuals who are losing their homes are the ones who could not afford them anyways. There is no coincidence that the states with the highest foreclosure rates are Florida, California, Nevada, and Arizona. Many of these properties were bought as speculation thinking that the value of the property would rise. The only good news about the bust of the housing market is that prices have declined low enough that an average family can now afford a house.

The Unexpected Retail Decline

I'm probably just an optimist but I believe good paying jobs will be coming back especially if you have a pioneering spirit. There will be good paying jobs in the alternative energy field but it will just take some time (5+ years at most). Some projects are in the pipeline now. Projects from administrations take some time to come to fruitition.


On Apr 14 10:03 PM Lin wrote:

> Re
>
> I just read yesterday re a survey done by Metlife . The results are
> as follows . 50% of folks would not make it one month without their
> jobs . 28 % would Not make it 2 weeks without their jobs ! Cetin
> -you truly are an imbecile ! Yes I know the government reads our
> comments. Good paying jobs are Not coming back . US standard of living
> IS going down+ will stay there . Only the top 1-2 % will get richer
> . That's how it always goes !

The Unexpected Retail Decline

Retail sales were reported by Larry Kudlow as a positive and I see retail sales improving.

--Intel states they have seen a bottom in the PC market.
--Bed Bath and Beyond are posting better than expected earnings.
--Alcoa believes aluminum has bottomed out.

Many companies are posting better than expected earnings. I think everyone was just expecting to see worse news and many companies reacted to it. Some of the 90% of the workforce is seeing an uptick in business. Course, I see many of the employees in the energy sector (non-green) being laid off, but once either inflation hits or the economy improves then they will be called back.


On Apr 14 04:38 PM Smegma wrote:

> As Larry Kudlow explained today, the retail sales number was actually
> a good sign for the economy.
>
> The equity markets retreated today because of market manipulation
> by terrorist-loving short sellers. Period.
>
> The secular bull market continues onward and upward.

What the Leading Indicators Tell Us About This Rally

Point #8-steady increase in the M2 money supply. Steady increase? Seems to be pretty drastic increase. From steady state of about plus one to minus one percent for about a year to positive 20 percent in about a month? Bear vs. bull number kinda seems nebulus. Sounds like a bear that did not wake up fast enough to catch the rally. I may not know much about the stock market but I think a gain of more than 20% constitutes a bull market rally.

10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid

What a load of crap. Caterpillar is showing classic signs of a "head and shoulders" type rally, plus the infrastructure spending should help the company. If an inept investor like myself could see this than anyone could.

$200 Oil Is Coming While We Waste a Perfectly Good Crisis (Part 3)

www.baardenergy.com/or...

Indeed. Why waste a good crisis? A company was going to build a complex to convert coal to liquid fuel but they had to abort because of a few environmental Nazis (NRDC AND SIERRA CLUB) were filing unsubstatiated lawsuits. Now the project could be on hold indefinately instead of the plant operating that could have employed thousands throughout the country (coal miners, plant operators, transporation, small business)(not including the thousands that would have been employed building the plant). Instead we will continue to import our oil.

There's Every Reason to Believe We're Nearer the End of This Recession than the Beginning

Ok Ryan, I too am an optimist when it comes to the end of the recession, but let me back it up with facts:

--Upward sloping treasury yield curve: When it was downwardly sloping it indicated a recession (lo and behold it happened).
--M2 monetary supply has been increased. More money means more spending.
--1st quarter earnings for retail and banking are not as bad as economists were expecting.
--Baltic Dry Index has been climbing.
--Rasmussen Consumer Index is gradually increasing.
--Some housing markets are improving.
--More news stories are becoming more optimistic about the recovery.

These are some of the indicators that are showing that we are closer to a recovery than many think. I'm just too bored to think of more.

R.I.P. recession December 2007-April 2009.

Rising Oil Price Could Slow or Kill Economic Recovery

Either that or it would pave the way for Baard Energy to proceed forward with their Ohio River Clean Fuels project that would lead to our energy independence from Middle Eastern oil. Imagine a 2 billion dollar investment in a plant that would employ about 500 individuals at the plant itself, not to mention the thousands that would be reemployed at the mines that are currently closed due to the low cost of coal.

www.baardenergy.com/or...

Technicals: Where Is the Pullback? What Pullback?

Are you expecting a pullback on the Dow? During the 81-82 recession the Dow gained at least 25% from August 11, 1982 til November 2, 1982 with some minor pullbacks (definately nowhere near 10%). The recession was declared over in November 1982. I think I'm going to be naive here and declare the recession offically over April 2009 (could be the beer talking).

Seeking Signs of Recovery

Hold on a minute. You include unemployment numbers. As counterintuitive as this sounds, unemployment numbers are a lagging indicator. As I told my former employers (note former employers), unemployment actually accelerates at the end of a recession (backed up by numbers from the last severe recessions from 73-75 and 81-82 which peaked at the end of the recession). Why haven't you included the M2 increase or the treasury yield rates (which predicted the recession in the first place)? I also noticed you included VAR industrial production that is largely projected. There are some economists that believe we have deminished our inventories that could lead our industries to have to produce more products. I don't mean to make this sound like an attack, just a different way (perhaps naive) of looking at the economy.