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2MuchDebt

2MuchDebt
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  • More on the late-day Fed leak: Officials have become impatient with sluggish growth and high unemployment, reports Jon Hilsenrath. MBS purchases, a pledge to keep rates low for longer, or even a move to push down nearly microscopic short rates even lower are among the choices available to the FOMC. Action could come at the July 31 meeting.  [View news story]
    Unfortunately those options will not spur any kind of meaningful growth for the economy. The market will probably get all excited for no reason and then fall back after it realizes this "monetary stimulus" is not doing much and hasn't for some time.
    Jul 24 04:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany hits back at Moody's after the ratings agency gave the country a negative outlook, pointing out that it has exceptionally low borrowing costs. "Germany will, through solid economic and financial policy, defend its 'safe haven' status," the finance ministry says. Yields on 10-year bonds are +6 bps to 1.24%.  [View news story]
    Bond yields gauge "relative" safety. Germany, compared to the rest of Western Europe, is much safer. However, there is certainly risk associated with a Greek exit and continued waste of taxpayers dollars for sovereign (or bank) "bailouts". This is also in an era of worldwide ZIRP and extraordinary monetary easing. So just because yields are low does not mean all is well.
    Jul 24 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If you think Jamie Dimon (JPM) can't end up like Barclays' Bob Diamond, think again, says Jonathan Weil. The fact that JPMorgan only decided on Thursday to restate Q1 results shows that Dimon still hadn't grasped how internal controls are failing him and the company.  [View news story]
    I partly agree with you TomasViewPoint. However, comparing a loss at JPM vs. the Federal Government of $5.8 billion (and counting) is not even close to an apples to apples comparison. JPM can't print money. If they could, I'd buy the stock :) . Plus, the Federal Government can run a budget deficit every year for an extended period of time (like we're currently doing) and still operate. A company can't (insolvency), unless it consistently receives a source of cash to cover cash losses and working capital needs. The big picture issue here is systematic risk and whether or not JPM has its operations under control. And yes, the Federal Government wastes taxpayers money everyday. Can't argue with you there! Thanks for your post. Have a good day.
    Jul 14 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve just doesn't get it. It's not a Keynesian supply side issue where printing additional USD will solve our economic problems! This should be apparent by the vast amounts of monetary easing that have done very little to stimulate economic growth / corporate profits. If anybody still listens to and acts upon these jokers anymore, I pity them.

    On a side note: It was interesting to find out today that the Fed knew about issues involving LIBOR and Barclays pre-recession and did little to resolve the issue... tisk tisk.
    Jul 10 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June Nonfarm Payrolls: +80K vs. consensus +100K, prior +77K (revised from 69K). Unemployment rate 8.2% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.  [View news story]
    Pretty good? We're already three years out of the recession and job growth is anemic and trending downward! This is the worst jobless recovery in decades. And don't forget, we also have trillions of stimulus and ZIRP to backup these numbers. No, these numbers are not good. They're awful.
    Jul 6 09:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 374K vs. 386K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K). Continuing claims +4K at 3.30M.  [View news story]
    You don't think Europe is in a crisis?
    Jul 5 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 374K vs. 386K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K). Continuing claims +4K at 3.30M.  [View news story]
    We already know there is no recession at this time anonymous. You don't have to post a comment everybody already knows every time a statistic is released. How about posting some other stats to show that even though we're not in a recession, we're not in anything close to a cyclical upswing, like how business sales growth vs. inventory growth saw a negative crossover recently, retail sales growth has decelerated, industrial production growth has decelerated, economic growth is well short of the beginning of this year's lofty expectations and employment growth is anything but robust. This will help bring reality into the picture.
    Jul 5 08:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European shares close sharply lower as a Monday panic again grips the periphery. Stoxx 50 -2.6%, Germany -2%, France -2.2%, Italy -4.1%, Spain -3.7%, U.K. -1.2%. If the last two Mondays are any predictor, European shares have bottomed for the week. Peter Lynch used to like to buy at the close on Mondays.  [View news story]
    Panic is, however, part of the markets and will always be.

    That's a good strategy; one that I follow as well. I focus more on regional and industry specific securities in comparison to individual securities.

    Did you ever end up buying some JPM?
    Jun 25 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European shares close sharply lower as a Monday panic again grips the periphery. Stoxx 50 -2.6%, Germany -2%, France -2.2%, Italy -4.1%, Spain -3.7%, U.K. -1.2%. If the last two Mondays are any predictor, European shares have bottomed for the week. Peter Lynch used to like to buy at the close on Mondays.  [View news story]
    There is reason to panic, but the market's not fully there yet because for some reason the market thinks QE will solve all problems. You've been preaching this "buy the panic driven dips" for a while now. Long term it makes sense, but I think we have farther to fall.
    Jun 25 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Among the Apple (AAPL) developer conference product rumors that didn't pan out: MacBook Airs with retina displays, an $800 MacBook Air, new iMacs, and (in the case of a speculative Jefferies note) the fabled Apple TV. There may be no better proof of why output from the Apple rumor mill needs to be taken with a large dose of salt. Apple shares finished down 1.6% after rallying early on, as disappointment over unrealized rumors set in. (more on AAPL)  [View news story]
    That has been the stock market for a long time. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
    Jun 11 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weakness in Spanish and Italian bond markets turns into a rout, Spain's 10-year note now +23 bps to 6.45%, Italy's 10-year +24 bps to 6.01%. Madrid +1.1% after being 4.5% higher earlier. Milan -0.6%. S&P futures at session lows, +0.3%.  [View news story]
    That was short lived.
    Jun 11 08:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The private sector is doing fine." Pres. Obama later clarified his odd remark - private sector jobs remain 4.6M below their Jan. 2008 peak - but noted their relative strength vs. public sector job growth shows it has "not been the biggest drag on the economy." His point was that the loss of public sector jobs, down ~600K in three years, is a problem "the federal government could, with 100% certainty, fix."  [View news story]
    Our current President is a moron. Sad, but true. The government can fix everything and anything according to Obama. Why do we need the private sector? Obama will just raise the debt limit and throw money at your problems at the expense of the taxpayer. Thanks!


    Terry: This has been the weakest post-recession jobs recovery in over 30 years. During President Obama's last 3.5 years he increased federal debt by approximately $4 trillion dollars (an unprecedented amount over a 3.5 year period). I'm glad all that money was well spent because our economy is booming now! haha. Not to mention all of his proposed government regulation which is causing companies to hit the brakes on hiring new workers. After companies cleaned house and fired so many people in late 2008 through mid-2009 it would be difficult not to have positive job growth in 2010 and 2011. Looks like his "strategies", if you can even call them that, aren't working.

    http://bit.ly/LwOIOt


    http://bit.ly/Mjq6ai

    http://bit.ly/MVnWAV
    Jun 9 09:07 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "You're never going to ever achieve the necessary pool of money that you need (by) buying bonds," says BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, whose February call to be 100% invested in equities came just about the time it paid to be 100% invested in bonds. The U.S. 10-year yields 1.56% vs. the S&P yield of 2%.  [View news story]
    Agreed. It is clearly a short term play. Treasury yields can't fall much farther for long.
    Jun 8 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "You're never going to ever achieve the necessary pool of money that you need (by) buying bonds," says BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, whose February call to be 100% invested in equities came just about the time it paid to be 100% invested in bonds. The U.S. 10-year yields 1.56% vs. the S&P yield of 2%.  [View news story]
    I recall making a similar point last Friday.
    Jun 8 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • May Nonfarm Payrolls: +69K vs. consensus of +150K, prior 79K (revised). Unemployment 8.2% vs 8.1% expected, 8.1% previous.  [View news story]
    You're kidding, right? My point is the market trend is risk-off, we're below the market levels from the date of his article, he made his call after a huge market rally from the lows in October 2011, all the data coming in is awful (do you see a trend and catch my drift?). It was bad advice to the mom and pop investors who might take his words as law. Look at some charts.
    Jun 1 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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