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2MuchDebt

2MuchDebt
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  • Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 380K). Continuing claims +26K to 3.27M.  [View news story]
    Should I listen to bbro instead? Please oh wise one, let me know where I should put my money. ZeroHedge normally presents the information as it should be presented: the truth. They can be a little extreme in their opinions, but they present the information better than Reuters or Bloomberg or CNBC who just post the headline number and quote an analyst of their choosing. I don't think I'm the only one who believes this. I make investment decisions based on dissecting information from a lot of sources. It's ignorant to ignore the facts. However, "investing" in this market is a joke as every market is manipulated. I still have money in the game, but certainly not everything.
    Apr 19, 2012. 09:03 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 380K). Continuing claims +26K to 3.27M.  [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/JNq6e3

    Nuff said.
    Apr 19, 2012. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks capped their worst week of the year on disappointing GDP growth from China and increased concern about Spain. Financials were hit especially hard, with BAC -5.3%, MS -5.2%; JPM -3.6%, WFC -3.5% despite solid "but not thesis changing" earnings. Crude oil prices eased; 10-year Treasury yields fell below 2%. NYSE losers topped winners four to one.  [View news story]
    First off 8% GDP growth sounds good. But growth for the sake of growth is not good. Quality of GDP matters too and China's quality of GDP is subpar. It's not the number itself that matters though, it's more about the number relative to expectations. Unfortunately your read on the market is incorrect. The market did not take into account the lower expectation. Remember the whisper of a rumor yesterday about 9%+ GDP growth in China and the market rallied strong? It's called Hopium (and manipulation) and there's plenty of it.

    About JPM: Earnings beat by $0.14/share. However, reduction in loan loss reserves, which is the traditional way for banks to pump up the bottom line, accounted for $1.8 billion of earnings or $0.28/share. The market doesn't like to see this because it is a transitory earnings component. The same is true for when earnings are lower due to increasing loan loss provisions. Also, NIM is lowest in over 3 years at 2.61%. And with Bernanke holding tight on interest rates, the yield curve probably won't be getting any steeper anytime soon.
    Apr 13, 2012. 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The fact that stocks surged yesterday on the flimsy rumor of hot Chinese GDP growth - since disproved - is a sign the market's wild, unexplainable behavior could be making a comeback. “We’re not going to be buying quickly into a rally like this,” KeyCorp's Bruce McCain says. “We think there’s greater potential for downside than more gains from these levels.”  [View news story]
    Gotcha
    Apr 13, 2012. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The fact that stocks surged yesterday on the flimsy rumor of hot Chinese GDP growth - since disproved - is a sign the market's wild, unexplainable behavior could be making a comeback. “We’re not going to be buying quickly into a rally like this,” KeyCorp's Bruce McCain says. “We think there’s greater potential for downside than more gains from these levels.”  [View news story]
    I understand the mechanics. However, increasing government and central bank debt significantly without repayment has serious ramifications and that is why I mentioned both government AND central bank debt must be repaid (at least to some degree). Central bank debt will eventually be "repaid" either through higher inflation or removing the money from the economy. Your way of describing sovereign debt repayment seems to imply that it doesn't matter how much debt is issued because the economy never stops growing, which is certainly not true and is in fact natural and healthy to have contractions every now and then (business cycle). You would fit right in at the Fed. Believe it or not there was a time before 2008 when central banks and governments didn't unload their pockets and the world got alone fine.
    Apr 13, 2012. 10:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The fact that stocks surged yesterday on the flimsy rumor of hot Chinese GDP growth - since disproved - is a sign the market's wild, unexplainable behavior could be making a comeback. “We’re not going to be buying quickly into a rally like this,” KeyCorp's Bruce McCain says. “We think there’s greater potential for downside than more gains from these levels.”  [View news story]
    I agree Tack, but we should also look into the future as well. It would be silly to walk forward while looking backwards (you might run into a brick wall!) The private economy is not functioning on its own and therefore is unstable. It's on a lifeline from central banks and governments. It's become an addiction and is unhealthy. Unfortunately, this misappropriation of capital will come back to bite us as every government/central bank dollar spent yields cents on the dollar and eventually will have to be repaid by guess who; taxpayers.
    Apr 13, 2012. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The read-in to Alcoa's (AA) conference call is encouraging, especially for materials stocks, says CNBC's Pete Najarian. The CEO talked positively about China, and that's a meaningful change. “All anyone hears is how bad China is. But Klaus Kleinfeld is talking about global demand growth at 7%. That’s pretty phenomenal. That tells us something about the global economy that we haven’t heard over the past month or two." (video)  [View news story]
    My apologies realornot. I did come off a little harsh. It just bothers me how some people think all is rosy nowadays. I took out some of the aggression on your post, which I shouldn't have. I just wanted to throw out data and facts that people seem to dismiss.
    Apr 11, 2012. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The read-in to Alcoa's (AA) conference call is encouraging, especially for materials stocks, says CNBC's Pete Najarian. The CEO talked positively about China, and that's a meaningful change. “All anyone hears is how bad China is. But Klaus Kleinfeld is talking about global demand growth at 7%. That’s pretty phenomenal. That tells us something about the global economy that we haven’t heard over the past month or two." (video)  [View news story]
    We're not experiencing record auto sales. Auto sales have been climbing, but mostly due to corporate buyers refreshing their stock; not individual buyers. Good luck putting your life savings into the stock market based on rising auto sales! Forget all the other data that can scare the bageezes out of any relatively smart person, including exponential growth in debt all over the world, stagnating income, 15% U6 unemployment rate, continuing decline in single family home sales and prices, divergence in credit and equity markets (credit markets foretelling a worsening economic outlook), etc. Markets are hooked on trillions in bailout funds and the world economy is barely surviving! Think of the outcome if bailout money comes out of the market or if not what will happen to fiat money and inflation. Stop focusing entirely on past data and do some research and forecasting because the future doesn't look too pretty. And I almost forgot, bush tax cuts expire on 1/1/2013 and all the fiscal drag due to the lack of leadership from the super committee will begin in 2013. If all goes as planned, GDP growth could slow by as much as 3%. It will prob. be less severe but there will be a drag on GDP.
    Apr 10, 2012. 10:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions Gate's (LGF -1.7%) The Hunger Games continues to dominate at the box office, as it notches its third consecutive weekend as the top grossing U.S. movie in beating out a new entry in the American Pie comedy series and a 3-D re-release of Titanic.  [View news story]
    How was The Hunger Games? I still haven't seen it, but want to soon.
    Apr 9, 2012. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 357K vs. 355K consensus (prior week revised to 363K from 359K). Continuing claims -16K to 3.33M.  [View news story]
    And what part of the business cycle are we in now; monetize, inflate and hope?
    Apr 5, 2012. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cleveland Fed President (and FOMC voter) Sandra Pianalto is seeing more evidence the economy is in a self-sustaining recovery, but she is not at the point of even thinking about withdrawing extraordinary monetary stimulus as it could be another 4 or 5 years before employment reaches what she considers to be the "maximum" level.  [View news story]
    The economy is so strong and self-sustaining that we need another 4-5 years of maintaining the ridiculous amount of monetary stimulus? Gotcha. Talk about an ignorant "smart" person. Hyperinflation will have engulfed the world by then; but who cares, right?
    Apr 2, 2012. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts expect a weak upcoming earnings season, but that may not be such a bad thing, Justin Lahart writes: “If a profits slowdown is coming because companies have reached the limit on margin expansion, and now have to hire more workers to keep up with sales, investors should really celebrate what is happening… Earnings growth is nice, but a healthy economy is even nicer.”  [View news story]
    So now a weak earnings season is bullish? This market needs a reality check. Lahart is grasping at straws.
    Mar 30, 2012. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the Nonfarm Payroll report: The labor force participation rate rose to 63.9% (63.7% previous). The employment/population ratio rose to 58.6% (58.5%). Big gains in professional and business services (82K) and temporary help (45K). Construction and government employment were flat. December employment revised higher to 223K (203K).  [View news story]
    @WMARKW: I'm on your side. I seem to have used a ridiculous phrase when I said Obama's economic policies. Ooops.
    Mar 27, 2012. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FRBNY President Bill Dudley doesn't expect any further efforts by the Fed to assist the EU debt situation, but "we will continue to monitor the situation closely." The Fed already has a big matzo ball out there in the form of a massive dollar swap program, but officials are confident these loans will be paid back in full.  [View news story]
    The U.S. is getting into bed with everybody, no matter how many diseases our partners have! Thanks for "monitoring the situation closely", as if Dudley and the Fed can solve any and every problem. I can sleep easy tonight.
    Mar 27, 2012. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "There has been no change in (the) Obama administration stance on use of emergency oil reserves," Reuters reports another unnamed official as saying. Oil reverses a chunk, but not nearly all, of its earlier slide on a rumor of an SPR release. WTI crude flat at $107/barrel.  [View news story]
    Incomprehensible... and these people make big boy decisions? (flip-flop-flip-flop)
    Mar 27, 2012. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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219 Comments
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