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2MuchDebt

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  • Pac Crest's Chad Bartley is taking a hammer to his Kindle Fire estimates after supply chain checks indicate poor demand: his Q4 sales forecast has been lowered to 6M from 8M, and his 2013 forecast to 10.5M from 12.5M. For reference, IDC expects 172.4M tablet shipments in 2013. A silver lining: since the Fire line is sold at a loss, Bartley's 2013 Amazon (AMZN +3.1%) EPS forecast has risen by $0.10 to $2.70. Reviews (I, II) for the latest Fire models were lukewarm. Is the iPad Mini hurting sales? [View news story]
    The 16GB Wi-Fi only iPad Mini's gross margin is supposedly 43%.... No need to cut price as Apple sells every Mini produced.
    Dec 18, 2012. 02:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Google Maps (GOOG) iPhone app was downloaded over 10M times in its first 48 hours of availability, claims division chief Jeff Huber. Separately, Google has launched YouTube Capture, an iOS app meant to increase mobile upload activity for the video site. The app allows users to start shooting video immediately after launching, and begins uploading a file as soon as recording is finished. (previous[View news story]
    So management is never allowed to fumble, even once? They corrected the issue, apologized publicly and all is well. This was a lesson that will be good for the company because they will not want to put themselves in a similar position again.

    By the way good luck shorting Apple. Let me know how that goes. Your price target is ludicrous and you haven't provided any note-worthy analysis to back it up. Why is 300s more likely than 400s now? What ground-breaking news came out in the last day or so that would lend you to believe this?
    Dec 17, 2012. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -0.4%) is down just slightly in spite of Citi's downgrade: iPhone order cuts and soft regular iPad sales seem priced in with multiples soundly in value territory, and many analysts are making it clear they're still fans. Canaccord's Milke Walkley is the latest to slash estimates (though reiterating a Buy), citing "softer sales expectations in international markets, primarily in Europe." Included in the Citi downgrade is U.S./U.K. survey data noting a growing consumer preference for bigger displays: 47% of iPhone owners said their preferred screen size is 4.1"-4.5". [View news story]
    I wonder if Matthew Lynn and Charles Golvin still have a job. Nice post rperson.
    Dec 17, 2012. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) is taking it on the chin again this morning as chatter about weak iPhone 5 demand in China, and UBS taking its price target on the stock down to $700 from $780 has the shares off 2.2% premarket. [View news story]
    So you're short Apple I take it?
    Dec 14, 2012. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Liquidity Concerns Are Overblown; Q4 Likely To Squeeze Shorts [View article]
    Thank you for the article. I appreciated the liquidity analysis.
    Dec 11, 2012. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    Thanks Stephen. I disagree with you on the price target for a number of reasons, but I appreciate the article. Interesting to see trends on unit profitability. Happy investing.
    Dec 11, 2012. 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    "Back in March, I called for a $700 share price. Apple hit that price in September. It's time to set a new Apple price target of $480."

    Is $480/share your 1-year price target? And this is based solely on the assumptions of supply/demand constraints and diminishing unit profits?

    If you're so confident Apple will decline to $480 why not short the stock? That's a quick and easy 12% gain from its current trading price. Your user profile states "I put my money where my mouth is". I find it rather comical how so many "investment professionals" are quick to disseminate investment ideas, but don't back up the investment thesis with personal/professional funds. It's one thing to write a negative article, but it's entirely different to invest according to your recommendations. Generally speaking, if a person is not going to invest according to his/her analysis, the analysis is baseless.

    Just one observers opinion.
    Dec 11, 2012. 01:13 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Topeka's Brian White says the Apple-dependent Taiwanese suppliers in his "Apple Monitor" collectively saw a 15% M/M sales increase in November. That's well above the 4% averaged over the last 7 years, something White attributes to the strength of Apple's (AAPL -0.6%) fall product refresh. The Apple uber-bull reiterates a Buy and $1,111 PT. (previous[View news story]
    I don't know if it's going to be a blowout, but it will certainly be another strong quarter for Apple. Technicals and fear factor are driving the recent decline. Should be a good investment over the next year at these levels as the drivel is washed away.
    Dec 10, 2012. 05:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Improbable Math [View article]
    Apple's product appeal is not contingent upon movements in the stock price. If anything it would be the other way around. However, stock price movements are determined by profits and cash flow and have no bearing on the "coolness" of a product. Last time I checked Apple has experienced and will likely continue to experience significant revenue and profitability growth.

    Apple makes reliable, easy to use and innovative products. Apple has such strong demand that it can barely produce enough iPhone 5s and iPad minis to satisfy consumers worldwide. It has created an interconnected product ecosystem that yields greater results for consumers who own multiple Apple devices, which has helped increase its brand loyalty. Apple has a strong following from its current customers/users and strong interest from a lot of non-users.

    For someone who is the Executive Vice President and Director of Research for America First Investment Advisors, LLC I would think your analysis would be of much higher quality.
    Dec 6, 2012. 10:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -3.6%) has sold off in early trading, apparently on news clearing firms are raising their margin requirements for positions due to fears of being too heavily concentrated in the $526B company. One firm, COR Clearing, raised its margin requirement to 60% from 30%. [View news story]
    Innovation matters, but profits and cash flow matter more. Apple continues to generate strong results for both.
    Dec 5, 2012. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offering bigger displays than the iPhone has helped Android gain smartphone share ... can it help tablet OEMs trying to challenge the iPad's high-end dominance? While a Microsoft insider claims a 14.6" "Surface Book" is being considered, SamMobile passes on a rumor that Samsung (SSNLF.PK) is working on a 13.3" tablet with a built-in keyboard dock. Barring hardware advances, devices of such size will get uncomfortable to hold after a while. Separately, reports are floating around that the Galaxy S IV will feature a 5" 1080p OLED display and 13MP camera. [View news story]
    Personally I'm not a fan of the larger phone trend. I think the iPhone5 is a great size and there's no need to go bigger. What is the appeal of having a larger phone? Please don't say watching movies...
    Dec 5, 2012. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) announces the iPhone 5 will go on sale in China on Dec. 14, and the iPad Mini and 4th-gen regular iPad on Dec. 7. That gives Apple a little over 2 and 3 weeks, respectively, to rack up (authorized) Chinese sales of the devices in FQ1. The iPhone 5 launch was widely expected, given regulatory approval and China Telecom's (CHA)  pre-orders. Separately, Apple has begun selling the iPhone 5 unlocked in the U.S. at prices ranging from $649-$849. (PR[View news story]
    That may be racchole, but people love the iPhone and Apple products and Apple is selling them like crazy. As a shareholder, I don't care what people do with the phone as long as it's selling well and profit margins are fairly stable as volume will make up for any small declines in profit margin.
    Nov 30, 2012. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the fiscal cliff talks: The President's opening bid - delivered this afternoon by Tim Geithner - calls for a $1.6T tax increase, a $50B economic-stimulus program, and delivering to the WH the power to raise the federal debt limit without congressional approval. It's a "step backward," says Mitch McConnell. It sounds more like what it's described as: An opening bid. [View news story]
    Well stated Wyatt and Tack's post gave me a chuckle
    Nov 30, 2012. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the fiscal cliff talks: The President's opening bid - delivered this afternoon by Tim Geithner - calls for a $1.6T tax increase, a $50B economic-stimulus program, and delivering to the WH the power to raise the federal debt limit without congressional approval. It's a "step backward," says Mitch McConnell. It sounds more like what it's described as: An opening bid. [View news story]
    "...and the spending cuts are..." ====> more spending
    Nov 29, 2012. 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Windows 8 making a bad situation worse for the (non-Apple) PC industry? NPD believes U.S. retail sales of Windows gear is down 21% Y/Y since Oct. 26, the day Win. 8 launched. Notebooks -24% and desktops -9%. Also, thanks to inventory-clearing and perhaps also a cautious enterprise response, Win. 8 has only made up 58% of Windows device sales since launch time, compared with 83% for Windows 7 in its first 4 weeks. 6% of Win. 8 notebook sales involved touchscreens, and ASPs rose to $477 from $433 in the year-ago period. (40M licenses[View news story]
    I agree. I have transitioned to Apple hardware and software. It's easy and reliable, unlike Microsoft.
    Nov 29, 2012. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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