Seeking Alpha

2MuchDebt

2MuchDebt
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 2MuchDebt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • July Employment Trends Index: +5.9% Y/Y to 108.11, vs. 107.68 in June. (revised). The report states slow employment growth is likely to continue in the next few months and July pace of job growth (163,000) is unlikely to be sustained  [View news story]
    “There is no reason to expect employers to rapidly expand their workforce in the current economic environment, and the July pace of job growth (163,000) is unlikely to be sustained.” Certainly not positive for future non-farm payroll figures (including both hiring and income trends).
    Aug 6, 2012. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Nonfarm Payrolls: +163K vs. consensus +100K, prior +64K (revised from 80K). Unemployment rate 8.3% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.  [View news story]
    The headline “nonfarm payrolls” numbers come from a survey of establishments. The unemployment rate comes from a survey of households. So what did people say? First, based on their responses, 150k dropped out of the labor force (compared to a 156k increase in June). The number of employed, as indicated by people, fell 195k (as opposed to a 128k June gain). And 348k persons of working age dropped out of the labor force, contributing to the great mass of “discouraged workers” (there was just a 34k rise of discourage workers in June). Hence, on each score, July was worse than June. By the way, taking into account discouraged workers and underemployment, the “U-6” unemployment rate advanced a notch in July, to 15.0%.
    Aug 3, 2012. 09:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading as low as 6.61% pre-ECB, Spanish 10-year bond yields (Italians too) soar higher, now at 7.24%. 2-year yields remain lower by 10 bps at 4.83% as Draghi indicated bond purchases - should they come - would be focused on the short end of the curve.  [View news story]
    Well... it was worth a try! This is blatant manipulation. Although if someone was dumb enough to buy into the hype they should lose out on this reversion to reality.
    Aug 2, 2012. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi: Rumors of the demise of the euro are unacceptable, high government bond yields are unacceptable. ... the euro is irreversible.  [View news story]
    Sounds like Draghi is in denial.
    Aug 2, 2012. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 GDP (1st revision): +1.5% vs. +1.2% forecast, +1.9% prior (revised up to +2.0%). Price index +2.0% vs. +1.6% forecast, +2.0% prior.  [View news story]
    Real final sales of domestic product - GDP less change in private inventories - increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. I'd like to see this trending up.
    Jul 27, 2012. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 353K vs. 380K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K).  [View news story]
    Monthly non-farm jobs report is a much better indicator of economic strength than weekly jobless claims. What matters is income growth and expansion of the workforce. Unfortunately the "recovery" is not accelerating at a faster pace.
    Jul 26, 2012. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the late-day Fed leak: Officials have become impatient with sluggish growth and high unemployment, reports Jon Hilsenrath. MBS purchases, a pledge to keep rates low for longer, or even a move to push down nearly microscopic short rates even lower are among the choices available to the FOMC. Action could come at the July 31 meeting.  [View news story]
    The Fed does not print money and I strongly disagree.
    Jul 25, 2012. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple's FQ3: The company is guiding for FQ4 revenue of $34B and EPS of $7.65, below a consensus of $38B and $10.22. iPhone sales miss consensus, iPads beat. Gross margin of 42.8%, down 460 bps Q/Q (due to mix shift towards iPads) and up 120 bps Y/Y.  6.8M iPods sold, -10% Y/Y. Americas revenue +26%, Europe +16%, Japan +33%. Asia-Pac (led by China) +25% Y/Y but -22% Q/Q. Retail +17% Y/Y. $2.65/share dividend declared. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). AAPL -4.9% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Apple is a great company, but I believe the growth you saw in the past is over. Apple will need to innovate its way to significant growth again and I believe those days are numbered without Steve Jobs at the helm. Providing upgrades to existing products isn't enough. The Apple clan will always buy Apple products until they die, but many others will consider competitors' technology. Decent play at these levels, but I find it funny that a lot of people will probably never say "Sell Apple" or "Apple isn't good at these levels". The stock has traded at a low P/E for a long time. What's holding it back from hitting the 20's, 30's, etc? Companies can be undervalued for a while, but with the coverage Apple gets, why would Apple be significantly undervalued? Be mindful that even the best companies see an end to stardom.
    Jul 24, 2012. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the late-day Fed leak: Officials have become impatient with sluggish growth and high unemployment, reports Jon Hilsenrath. MBS purchases, a pledge to keep rates low for longer, or even a move to push down nearly microscopic short rates even lower are among the choices available to the FOMC. Action could come at the July 31 meeting.  [View news story]
    Unfortunately those options will not spur any kind of meaningful growth for the economy. The market will probably get all excited for no reason and then fall back after it realizes this "monetary stimulus" is not doing much and hasn't for some time.
    Jul 24, 2012. 04:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany hits back at Moody's after the ratings agency gave the country a negative outlook, pointing out that it has exceptionally low borrowing costs. "Germany will, through solid economic and financial policy, defend its 'safe haven' status," the finance ministry says. Yields on 10-year bonds are +6 bps to 1.24%.  [View news story]
    Bond yields gauge "relative" safety. Germany, compared to the rest of Western Europe, is much safer. However, there is certainly risk associated with a Greek exit and continued waste of taxpayers dollars for sovereign (or bank) "bailouts". This is also in an era of worldwide ZIRP and extraordinary monetary easing. So just because yields are low does not mean all is well.
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If you think Jamie Dimon (JPM) can't end up like Barclays' Bob Diamond, think again, says Jonathan Weil. The fact that JPMorgan only decided on Thursday to restate Q1 results shows that Dimon still hadn't grasped how internal controls are failing him and the company.  [View news story]
    I partly agree with you TomasViewPoint. However, comparing a loss at JPM vs. the Federal Government of $5.8 billion (and counting) is not even close to an apples to apples comparison. JPM can't print money. If they could, I'd buy the stock :) . Plus, the Federal Government can run a budget deficit every year for an extended period of time (like we're currently doing) and still operate. A company can't (insolvency), unless it consistently receives a source of cash to cover cash losses and working capital needs. The big picture issue here is systematic risk and whether or not JPM has its operations under control. And yes, the Federal Government wastes taxpayers money everyday. Can't argue with you there! Thanks for your post. Have a good day.
    Jul 14, 2012. 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve just doesn't get it. It's not a Keynesian supply side issue where printing additional USD will solve our economic problems! This should be apparent by the vast amounts of monetary easing that have done very little to stimulate economic growth / corporate profits. If anybody still listens to and acts upon these jokers anymore, I pity them.

    On a side note: It was interesting to find out today that the Fed knew about issues involving LIBOR and Barclays pre-recession and did little to resolve the issue... tisk tisk.
    Jul 10, 2012. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June Nonfarm Payrolls: +80K vs. consensus +100K, prior +77K (revised from 69K). Unemployment rate 8.2% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.  [View news story]
    Pretty good? We're already three years out of the recession and job growth is anemic and trending downward! This is the worst jobless recovery in decades. And don't forget, we also have trillions of stimulus and ZIRP to backup these numbers. No, these numbers are not good. They're awful.
    Jul 6, 2012. 09:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 374K vs. 386K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K). Continuing claims +4K at 3.30M.  [View news story]
    You don't think Europe is in a crisis?
    Jul 5, 2012. 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 374K vs. 386K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K). Continuing claims +4K at 3.30M.  [View news story]
    We already know there is no recession at this time anonymous. You don't have to post a comment everybody already knows every time a statistic is released. How about posting some other stats to show that even though we're not in a recession, we're not in anything close to a cyclical upswing, like how business sales growth vs. inventory growth saw a negative crossover recently, retail sales growth has decelerated, industrial production growth has decelerated, economic growth is well short of the beginning of this year's lofty expectations and employment growth is anything but robust. This will help bring reality into the picture.
    Jul 5, 2012. 08:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
253 Comments
366 Likes