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2MuchDebt

2MuchDebt
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  • Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
    EPS contraction in the most recent quarter compared to prior year comparable quarter. Say what you like but the market thinks that Apple's growth days are over. That's not too far fetched. If zero or negative growth ensues Apple's "extremely" low P/E ratio looks more reasonable. Competition and supply chain constraints are two serious issues here. Nothing I say will change your mind though bgold. Good luck with your investments.
    Feb 20 09:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook met with China Mobile (CHL) Chairman Xi Guohua today, when they discussed "matters of cooperation" and signed a confidentiality agreement. The talks have increased hopes of a breakthrough between the companies that would allow China's largest operator to offer iPhones. Tim Cook said he is confident the country will soon become Apple's largest market, with the company planning to increase the number of stores there to over 25 from 11. (previous[View news story]
    Somehow people will put a negative spin on this news... I'm just waiting for the posts.
    Jan 10 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Microsoft: A Holiday Retail Study [View article]
    @dannydyn: you beat me to the punch! I couldn't agree with you more, especially on the store design and store concept. Apple is so successful that Microsoft has to "fall in line" and copy Apple just to try to stay competitive.
    Dec 21 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    Thanks Stephen. I disagree with you on the price target for a number of reasons, but I appreciate the article. Interesting to see trends on unit profitability. Happy investing.
    Dec 11 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Improbable Math [View article]
    Apple's product appeal is not contingent upon movements in the stock price. If anything it would be the other way around. However, stock price movements are determined by profits and cash flow and have no bearing on the "coolness" of a product. Last time I checked Apple has experienced and will likely continue to experience significant revenue and profitability growth.

    Apple makes reliable, easy to use and innovative products. Apple has such strong demand that it can barely produce enough iPhone 5s and iPad minis to satisfy consumers worldwide. It has created an interconnected product ecosystem that yields greater results for consumers who own multiple Apple devices, which has helped increase its brand loyalty. Apple has a strong following from its current customers/users and strong interest from a lot of non-users.

    For someone who is the Executive Vice President and Director of Research for America First Investment Advisors, LLC I would think your analysis would be of much higher quality.
    Dec 6 10:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Nonfarm Payrolls: +114K vs. consensus +115K, +142K previous (revised from 96K). Unemployment rate 7.8% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.1% previous. [View news story]
    The jobs report is mediocre at best. Mid 100k in terms of monthly job gains is sub-par and highlights a struggling economy, especially as part-time jobs remain elevated. It shows a lack of confidence and growth prospects, especially considering the strength of corporate balance sheets.
    Oct 5 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago PMI: 49.7 vs. 53.0 expected, 53.0 prior. Employment 52.0 vs. 57.1 prior. New orders 47.4 vs. 54.8 prior. Prices paid 63.2 vs. 57.0 prior. [View news story]
    @ mickmars: I disagree with you. The Fed has been very active with monetary policy actions and yet we are still scraping the bottom with a downward trend. Monetary policy can only go so far. Reducing interest rates will not spur any growth at this point and the velocity of money has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2008 (all that dead money the Fed pumped into the system). Fed policy has limits and people should recognize that, even if the Fed can't. The looming fiscal cliff will also negatively impact business activity since Congress doesn't seem to care about it. Businesses will be proactive to be on the safe side.
    Sep 28 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Durable Goods: -13.2% vs. -5.0% expected, +3.3% prior (revised). Ex-transport -1.6% vs. +0.2% expected, -1.3% prior (revised). [View news story]
    Obama: "It's the Republicans fault". In all seriousness not a good trend.
    Sep 27 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration is telling Japan and other allied countries they must wait (past the election?) before moving forward on plans to buy U.S. natural gas. Several companies are seeking permits to export gas to countries lacking free-trade deals with the U.S., but LNG exports have become a hot-button topic for some lawmakers and environmentalists. (earlier)  [View news story]
    @ Terry330

    Does your White House team ever make a bad call?
    May 30 09:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The fact that stocks surged yesterday on the flimsy rumor of hot Chinese GDP growth - since disproved - is a sign the market's wild, unexplainable behavior could be making a comeback. “We’re not going to be buying quickly into a rally like this,” KeyCorp's Bruce McCain says. “We think there’s greater potential for downside than more gains from these levels.”  [View news story]
    I understand the mechanics. However, increasing government and central bank debt significantly without repayment has serious ramifications and that is why I mentioned both government AND central bank debt must be repaid (at least to some degree). Central bank debt will eventually be "repaid" either through higher inflation or removing the money from the economy. Your way of describing sovereign debt repayment seems to imply that it doesn't matter how much debt is issued because the economy never stops growing, which is certainly not true and is in fact natural and healthy to have contractions every now and then (business cycle). You would fit right in at the Fed. Believe it or not there was a time before 2008 when central banks and governments didn't unload their pockets and the world got alone fine.
    Apr 13 10:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The fact that stocks surged yesterday on the flimsy rumor of hot Chinese GDP growth - since disproved - is a sign the market's wild, unexplainable behavior could be making a comeback. “We’re not going to be buying quickly into a rally like this,” KeyCorp's Bruce McCain says. “We think there’s greater potential for downside than more gains from these levels.”  [View news story]
    I agree Tack, but we should also look into the future as well. It would be silly to walk forward while looking backwards (you might run into a brick wall!) The private economy is not functioning on its own and therefore is unstable. It's on a lifeline from central banks and governments. It's become an addiction and is unhealthy. Unfortunately, this misappropriation of capital will come back to bite us as every government/central bank dollar spent yields cents on the dollar and eventually will have to be repaid by guess who; taxpayers.
    Apr 13 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The read-in to Alcoa's (AA) conference call is encouraging, especially for materials stocks, says CNBC's Pete Najarian. The CEO talked positively about China, and that's a meaningful change. “All anyone hears is how bad China is. But Klaus Kleinfeld is talking about global demand growth at 7%. That’s pretty phenomenal. That tells us something about the global economy that we haven’t heard over the past month or two." (video)  [View news story]
    We're not experiencing record auto sales. Auto sales have been climbing, but mostly due to corporate buyers refreshing their stock; not individual buyers. Good luck putting your life savings into the stock market based on rising auto sales! Forget all the other data that can scare the bageezes out of any relatively smart person, including exponential growth in debt all over the world, stagnating income, 15% U6 unemployment rate, continuing decline in single family home sales and prices, divergence in credit and equity markets (credit markets foretelling a worsening economic outlook), etc. Markets are hooked on trillions in bailout funds and the world economy is barely surviving! Think of the outcome if bailout money comes out of the market or if not what will happen to fiat money and inflation. Stop focusing entirely on past data and do some research and forecasting because the future doesn't look too pretty. And I almost forgot, bush tax cuts expire on 1/1/2013 and all the fiscal drag due to the lack of leadership from the super committee will begin in 2013. If all goes as planned, GDP growth could slow by as much as 3%. It will prob. be less severe but there will be a drag on GDP.
    Apr 10 10:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key to Bernanke's view of the economy is his belief cyclical rather than structural issues are behind the weakness in the labor market. "If this assessment is correct, then accommodative policies  to support the economic recovery will help address this problem." S&P 500 +0.6%, Gold +1%, Crude +0.2%, Copper +1.3%. UUP -0.3% premarket.  [View news story]
    He's going to say whatever he wants to justify flooding the market with excess money, whether it's true or not. I can't wait to see all the central banks try to unwind their positions... oh wait, that'll never happen because the economy will always remain "far from normal". Thanks Benny.
    Mar 26 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices when we consume 20% of the world's oil," President Obama says during his weekly address. Obama took the opportunity to advocate for his "all of the above" strategy, that relies less on foreign fossil fuels, and more on: "solar, wind, natural gas, biofuels, and more."  [View news story]
    55,555 jobs per month. Strong for a recovery... haha. All those people driving to their temporary jobs pushed gas up from $1.91/gallon in March 2009 to $3.80/gallon in March 2012? You have no argument.

    http://bit.ly/yvkF5I
    Mar 10 10:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: China Mobile, Samsung trial, procurement, iPhone 6 pricing [View news story]
    Sorry, but the last bullet point is not an apples to apples comparison (no pun intended). The Galaxy Note 3 has 32GB of internal memory (priced at $300 with 2 year contract) whereas the iPhone 5s with 32GB of internal memory is also $300 with 2 year contract. The Note 3 is not priced at a premium to the iPhone. The difference is explained away by internal memory size.
    Nov 21 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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