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I have my name back, Still looking for a Purrfect picture. I have friends. Time to restart. SA isn't perfect but then I'm not either. But Life is far too short, and as the Roman Gladiators used to say: Eat, drink and make merry because tommorow, you may die. Why hasten your demise, don't worry,... More
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  • Trade War: A potential Black Swan
    Will Congress ignite a Trade War with China via passage of a Bill to revalue Their Currency InRe the USD?

    My take is as follows:

    1. Massive future inflation as the prices of "Made In China" products skyrocket. I maintain it is hard to find products without this label.

    2. Chinese curtail all purchases of US Debt as the value of the Trillion or so they already hold plummets. And will other Nations feel constrained to review their own holdings in this for fear of similar action?

    3. China becomes the Beneficiary as  Future purchases of commodities priced in $$$ become that much cheaper while the price paid for REEs skyrockets.

    4. China can retaliate by dumping US Debt and Embargoing REEs. Any nation selling REEs to the USA will not receive any themselves.

    The US Economy goes Kerplunk; USD goes Kerplunk; US Debt...pffft.

    All things "Natural Gas" skyrocket as people realize the full impact REEs have on "Green" products

    I imagine that this small listing can be expanded, probably by multiples.

    Thoughtful relevant comments welcome.
    Oct 09 9:13 AM | Link | 13 Comments
  • The Compass #3 continued
    The Premise is simple.

    Congress Does Not reach an agreement by Aug. 2nd.

    This affects various Gov. Agencies.

    How? And

    How will it, in turn, affect mReits like NLY and AGNC?

    Try to keep your comments on Point.
    Jul 15 10:46 PM | Link | 92 Comments
  • The Compass #3
    The Debt ceiling gets/does not get raised in "time".

    One set of programs which I have yet seen to be mentioned as Entitlements but which are a big part of the current debacle:

    Fanniee, Frediee, FHA, Flood Insurance and their Ilk.

    What happens if these puppies do Not get funded in a timely Fashion.

    Comments welcome, pretty please.
    Jul 08 8:29 AM | Link | 126 Comments
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    Jan 12, 2010
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    Jan 11, 2010
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