thechaser

thechaser
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Disney now down 3.2% after 'Star Wars' pushes record quarterly earnings  [View news story]
    oceanpacific626; look at the chart; p/e was 14 in late 2011 and stock was 30 and change and doubles by mid 2015 and stock goes to 120; mean reversion takes it back to 60 and if real recession, lower
    Feb 9, 2016. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks end off worst levels as energy stocks bounce  [View news story]
    wow no comments? i loved it today and will love it even more as the mask gets ripped off the face of the global central bank kick the can down the road fest; yeah the algos got the spark at 1514 and ran with it but it was just the trade; global markets are risk off and headed south... yeah! full disclosure i am seriously short and have been just waiting for my dr burry moment in the sun
    Feb 8, 2016. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Rebound Will Fuel A 'Rip Your Face Off' Rally In The Stock Market  [View article]
    probably been 'investing' for a whole three years
    Feb 8, 2016. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China dips into foreign-exchange reserves by $99.5B in January  [View news story]
    ZH posted an update to its continuing series regarding yuan versus dollar currency issues and notes that the 100 billion was in a no man's land; I still believe that the US central bank is now committed to defending the UST market and will not remove the possibility of continuing with the rate adjustments upward and is prepared to try and gently let the air out of the equity balloon; I mean buying the low divvy medium oils like APC and APA in the 30's certainly reflects a 30-40 price on oil for the balance of this year; the DXY was 80 went to 100 so you had a 25% increase but oil's pendulum swung to nearly 75% down the other day; to blame solely the DXY for that is wrong; my bet is seeing the SPX break below 1800 this month to 1780 and then hovering in the low 1800's awaiting a March adjustment that will not occur, market moves back to 1900 but stalls again showing that the classic downtrend sign of support becoming resistance is in play and the reason the US central bank wavers is a continuing decline in economic data as a result of industrial activity dropoff further exacerbating the downtrend and then moving for real the indices into risk-off as market decay becomes the mainstay
    Feb 7, 2016. 12:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    hey timmie; just wait, the party is getting started; i will never forget friday afternoon on march 6, 2009 when i realized that every financial name was 90% off and i spent the weekend putting together my monday morning shopping list and waded in buying in round lots anything and everything and bought about 40,000 shares of ge at 5 and pru at 10 and lnc at 5 and ba at 3 and citi at 1 and f at 2 and so on; wow, i got exactly the same rush the other day buying x for 7 a share or aa at under 7 or fcx at 4; i mean they are giving it away;

    also i sold a bunch of long dated jan18 energy puts on all of the low to no multi billion mkt cap dividend plays like apc, apa, hes, dvn;

    coming up again will be the financials because hig and lnc and pru and axp and bac and citi will all again be cheap, cheap and cheaper

    all the kings men and all the horses cannot hold back the tidal wave of disaster unleashed by run amok monetary madness and i relish the opportunity again sitting 90% in cash and buying by the thousand share block what just months before was 5 times as expensive

    just watch the cds blow up on the derivative plays of the eurobanks and the ticking time bomb of china with their finger in the dike of runaway money
    Feb 6, 2016. 01:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hormel: Dividend Investors Beware  [View article]
    i will borrow your shares and short it; nothing goes parabolic forever and hormel is no exception
    Feb 3, 2016. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Food Glorious Food  [View article]
    thanks mr parnell for highlighting a market segment i knew nothing about; it's interesting to see the flight to defense and with all central banks/ governments headed toward liquidity confiscation via real negative rates, maybe capital preservation becomes the focus and if an account is not marked to market, then basis is no concern if there is a yield
    Feb 3, 2016. 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Piper calls Amazon estimates low ahead of earnings; new Android effort reported  [View news story]
    what an oxymoron; amazon making money
    Jan 25, 2016. 09:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks stumble as oil price plunges again  [View news story]
    another great contraindicator; no comments
    Jan 25, 2016. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil heads lower...have we actually hit a bottom?  [View news story]
    the china national team is following the well hewn version of the "3:30" ramp and oil followed the equity trail until the final half hour; while oil priced below $60-70 is ridiculous because of its replacement cost, the current production environment says that the 'lower for longer' theme from 2015 still has legs
    Jan 25, 2016. 04:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does This Rally Have Legs?  [View article]
    concise article; thanks; interesting to see @jj1937 silence his bullhorn; could be like zh's gartman contraindicator;

    my bet is i've been short since i sold my longs in 2013-14 which was obviously too early to sell my 2009-2010 longs and way too early to have gone short;

    but i made the same mistake in '06-'07 and waited it out and this sure feels like the classic deja vu; i am strongly committed to the belief that the us central bank and us treasury are now fully behind supporting ust's value in the wake of large scale sovereign liquidations and therefore will continue a program of creating a rate differential and this will prove to further undercut the equities and credit markets;

    that said, i sold puts and bought longs inthe industrial/ energy sectors monday thru wednesday and will happily sell tomorrow at the open because this bounce does NOT have legs for precisely the reasons you stated;

    this market is downtrend and no amount of central bank intervention will revert its path to its mean
    Jan 24, 2016. 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Will Continue, Continued  [View article]
    i like mfitz's views; he knows more about this than i but i have been investing more time to sort out these vagaries and i have come to the conclusion that the usa central bank is bound and determined to protect the ust value AND liquidity in the face of an enormous selloff precipitated by the lack of usd going out to import oil in;

    if the ust market tanks, the global financial system is toast and there is nothing to replace it
    Jan 23, 2016. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Gaze Into The Fed's Crystal Ball  [View article]
    john hussman has got it right; central bank elixirs are not going to work when the peak has been had; the usa central bank and the treasury now realize that the most important work is to defend the value of the ust's given the massive liquidation of them occurring and that will continue over the balance of this cycle and the only way they can do it is to maintain an interest rate differential; the sovereign wealth funds will continue to flood the market and therefore the march rate increase is GUARANTEED and the equities party will suck serious wind; i forsee a feb drop down to 1780 as the go-go equities get liquidated to satisfy increasing stealth redemptions and their ludricrous valuations are deflated;

    i mean think about it; goog/fb are nothing but ad machines with slow growth in reality and nflx gives away entertainment access and amzn is a zero profit wholesaling retailer that has destroyed a functional real world marketplace; great accomplishments that will become gutted
    Jan 23, 2016. 12:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close  [View news story]
    usa markets going full china; the moment the intervention stops, bang the air goes right out of the balloon; watching the flattening of that yield curve with ust10's under 2 and gold over 1100 is what says the house is on fire; forget the sideshow
    Jan 20, 2016. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What goes up must come down?  [View news story]
    hey newbeach; the mar16 emini just traded to 1830; so is that your "bottom"?
    Jan 20, 2016. 04:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
739 Comments
781 Likes