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thechaser

thechaser
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  • Is Recent Jobs Growth Already Priced Into The Market? [View article]
    gee Eric, looks like everybody is over at Felix's commenting to the end of time!

    my two cents continues to be imprecise nature of these estimates and the reality that the monetary intervention since the early 70's continues to gyrate wildly in its effects

    i bailed on my mcd at 101 and change the other day and will not buy back until the next smackdown in the market but do believe it and anything that caters to the everyday life of 7 billion people is a good bet when buying at the bottom in a flush out

    as for the cyclicals, right on; put on my CAT short at 115 and change, covered tues and put on more at 110 today;

    i also am foursquare with you on slv/gld for trading; no way that the debt can be repaid other than debasement and given the size of the global debt to erase, some of miles franklins outlandish comments may come true
    Mar 9, 2012. 07:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Employment Recovery Is Real [View article]
    thanx indianamark for your who's on first!

    and my two cents is simply that the BLS does not publish the algorithms nor assumptions utilized in the birth-death calc and other "adjustment" factors used

    employment and unemployment numbers are estimates, whether good faith or not, they are not census counts

    no amount of pro or con can alter that; now, W-2 receipts divided by SSN's, that is at least a reportable wage based number of course not reflecting underground economy

    without the fed largesse, we'd be dead in the water, so let's be happy bernanke et al unleashed what they did; but the arguments about debt and debt service are somewhat stodgy when you see a 100% gdp to US public debt figure with an ave maturity of 5 yrs;

    that cannot be repaid at 0%, since there is not 3 trillion per year available for that

    i am a bull on mankind and a bear on the lunacy of this fiat money/ credit manipulation;

    go to the greek republic website and read the invitation for people to forfeit hundreds of billions of dollars ( http://bit.ly/AcPySB ); i swear it will take your breath away; like getting a letter from your bank telling you that 3/4 of your 401k no longer exists and sorry

    so as one commenter put it; a rose painted on the outhouse door; people this global financial world is in big trouble and it has got little to truly do with the daily life of 7 billion people, only we will all ultimately pay the price for this largesse
    Mar 9, 2012. 07:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ISDA has, in fact, determined a "credit event has occurred with respect to Greece," and schedules an auction date of March 19 for the defaulted bonds to set the CDS payout price. (earlier)  [View news story]
    check out zerohedge's comment on KA Finanz; enlightening; also isda.org has some very detailed data as does dtcc.com on the nuances of this credit insurance; and Gross called the pig the pig when he said man, the private money world will begin to question all bonds
    Mar 9, 2012. 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "I would not short Italy at all," says IMF chief Lagarde, heartened enough by developments there and the rest of Europe to give investing advice. One is reminded of then ECB President Trichet's July 2011 tip that speculating on a Greek default would be a sure-fire loser. (h/t Bond Vigilantes)  [View news story]
    losing 80% of your investment is not a default? the good thing is that this kind of patented BS insures that the next scheduled collapse will be even bigger than August's meltdown2

    just go read the greek invitation docs in detail and contemplate the amounts down to the penny (no lie, to the penny) and realize that there are tens of trillions of whatever mickey mouse currency du jour that will never be repaid

    and of course, that will not be a default; no not paying debts in full when its a government is ok or when it is by a politically accepted class of private individuals or companies

    the contrary nature of all of this guarantees calamity after calamity
    Mar 9, 2012. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the Greek debt swap results: The country intends to amend the terms of all Greek law covered bonds (activate the collective action clauses). This would bring the participation rate to 95.7%.  [View news story]
    the press release does not state that they have decided on addtl coercion; http://bit.ly/zinfKs is the link to the official press release and invitation docs
    Mar 9, 2012. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: +227K vs. consensus of +215K, +284K (revised from 243K) in Jan. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours, inline. Average hourly earnings +0.1%.  [View news story]
    typo SA; the front says 277k
    Mar 9, 2012. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese February inflation 3.2% vs. consensus of 3.4%, 4.5% previously. It's the lowest read in nearly 2 years, and suggests Beijing has room to further ease monetary policy. Shanghai +0.4%, lagging the rest of the worldwide rally.  [View news story]
    right, believe chinese govt nos; believe usa govt nos; believe eu govt nos; believe argentina govt nos; oh wait, they decided that argentina was violating the 2x rule; cannot lie more than two times
    Mar 9, 2012. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The deadline for participation in the Greek bond swap officially ended about 5 minutes ago. Officials expect to be up most of the night tallying totals, with "preliminary results" due at 8 AM local time (1 AM ET). Amidst rumors of 80% participation, an official says, "whoever gives percentage rates now is naive."  [View news story]
    pathetic? what's pathetic is manic manipulation of money, credit, and world markets to hopefully keep the overwrought house of cards together; like oh, the newest form of government support is .... student loans! yeah, that's it, after all, just like credit to give everybody all the modern conveniences was a good thing, then credit to put everybody in a house was a good thing, now giving everybody a chance with CREDIT to get an education is a good thing

    the Greek tragedy is simply an obvious manifestation of these policies

    so go ahead and buy buy buy because the higher it gets pushed the further it falls and i will merrily sell every long and patiently sit on my shorts, just like 08/09/10/11/12?? or 13??
    Mar 8, 2012. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The volume of Greek paper protected by CDS drops to a record low of $3.16B ($5.6B a year ago) ahead of the debt exchange. With CDS pricing in a 97% chance of default, anybody with sense has likely booked profits before waiting to see what the ISDA decides.  [View news story]
    "The Republic reserves the right at any time to waive any or all of the conditions of the Invitation as set out in this Invitation Memorandum."
    Mar 8, 2012. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks are undervalued at current levels, and more and more investors are realizing that, coming off the sidelines and back into the stock market, observes Abby Joseph Cohen. Using one particular metric, the S&P 500 is pricing in a 7% decline in corporate profits for each of the next five years. "That’s possible," Cohen says, "but it’s not likely."  [View news story]
    SA shame on you for publishing such bullsh-t

    i always wonder whose behind putting up this site and now i know
    Mar 7, 2012. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons To Be Bullish On Chevron Corp [View article]
    did mr. tortoise ever pay US income tax on the dividends? if so, was the 100k after tax? also, 174k/1600 = 109 or pretty much the alltime high; multiply that times say the 75 average price of 2010 and it goes for 120k plus the after tax dividends; gold at 40 would have been 110 ounces times 1500 or about the same
    Mar 7, 2012. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Number [View article]
    to the author; if this market continues a rapid ascent on Friday, the WSJ article on the Fed will quietly go away and that should then tank the market
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Number [View article]
    to gschm319; instead of stop loss, do you ever just hold until market volatility puts you in the black?
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed considers a new "sterilized" bond purchase program, still aimed at boosting the economy, but also designed to calm inflation fears. With this plan, the Fed would still conjure up dollars to buy long-term bonds, but would then engage in a "reverse repo," borrowing back the money for short periods. And all it took was one serious down day in stocks.  [View news story]
    mikeurl; jon hilsenrath is the dc guy to cover the Fed, so most consider him their unofficial leak-to guy for various stealth releases and like anybody with a relationship, hey you play the tune your steady eddy wants to hear; frankly i am perplexed why they'd use him in this manner; yesterday was well orchestrated and managed by the PPT to let a little air out and the greek thing is pre-wired; maybe the Fed WILL NOT DO ANYTHING NEXT TUESDAY... now where would that leave things
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whipsaw Wednesday – Dip Buying Or Just Dips Buying? [View instapost]
    phil, i could not agree more on screaming short; actually i have replaced the koolaid with jack daniels after a heady dose last week, shorted CAT at 115, AAPL at 544 and CMG at 394; don't know about IBM so left it alone

    and i did NOT cover yesterday... we'll see
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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