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thechaser

thechaser
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  • To Sell Or Not To Sell - That Is The Question [View article]
    i disagree partly;

    take your mcd for example; i sold an inherited share block at an intraday high of 102 last 20 jan 2012 with an inherited stepped up basis of 84;

    i bought it back at 87 at the end of may 2012 and will happily sell again at 102;

    after tax- $18 x .15 (pre Obama tax increases) = $2.7 or $15.30 net gain per share; i lost a single dividend payment but gained an amount equivalent to 5 years of non discounted forward dividends

    now post-obama i lose 24% of the ltcg, but i will beat your buy and hold all day long by selling the tops and buying the bottoms on MOST stocks;

    however, some darlings just cannot be beat and with those, i agree, if you bought 'em low, keep 'em, because you do not have a price action to make back your position on an after tax basis
    Mar 18 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB is reportedly not in favor of taxing Cyprus bank deposit accounts under €100K, reports Bloomberg, with a bank spokesman saying the plan is a design not of Brussels, but of the Cypriot government. German finmin Schauble says the same, and say his country wouldn't have issue with another solution. We'll see whether the quick-step back from this plan calms the markets today. [View news story]
    calms the market today???? what kind of enhancers are you sa 'editors' drinking in your coffee this morning; who in the ECB said this huh; an unnamed bank spokesperson that's who;

    sa working overtime this morning as you have been properly instructed to follow the party line as is your underlying mandate to exist

    you guys will have to pull some of your contributors as i actually saw an sa article referenced in kwn and miles franklin, horrors of horrors;
    Mar 18 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't look now, but stock futures are at session highs, though still down significantly. The S&P 500 (SPY) -0.7% after falling more than 1.5% at the overnight low. A check of bonds: U.S. 10-year down 5 bps to 1.94%. TLT +0.9% premarket. Spanish 10-year +9 bps to 5.02%. [View news story]
    steady as she goes captain; darn, i was looking at my tlt popping to 118 today; our shepherds guiding us safely through these tempests in a teapot; wait, didn't somebody else use that phrase last year?

    plunge protection at work to insure the insurance
    Mar 18 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus' parliament delays until tomorrow its vote on a bank bailout plan which - as currently formulated - would haircut all bank depositors. Revisions being discussed would ease the levy on small deposits - even eliminating it for all amounts less than €20K - while raising it on larger amounts. [View news story]
    gee, anybody there? i guess we can move on to more important things, like how can we goose BA...

    oh that's right, our favorite sa bulls don't need unimportant details like customers to push stocks higher
    Mar 18 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "This is a nuclear war on savings and wealth," writes Jefferies' David Zervos of the Cyprus bailout. "This is a policy move you expect from a dictatorial regime ... not in an EU member state. If the EU governments can clandestinely expropriate 7-10% of their (citizens' savings) after the close of business on Friday night, what else are they capable of doing ... Why keep your money at a Spanish or Italian bank when you can jump to Germany or France ... Why even keep money in the EU banking system at all." [View news story]
    hey macro, up waiting for the dax to open? so what do you think on the asian drops and flatlining? all primed to buy today?

    you want some investing info? where do we start? let's see... % of snp5k over 200dma- check; % of russell3k in highest rate of daily close increase over the trailing 30 day mark for the last 18 trading sessions-check; two of the lowest volume midday two one-hour trading sessions (11-noon; 2-3pm) in the last 21 years-check;

    you know, i watch this orchestrated manure every day on more computers in a single setting than most people have probably touched in a lifetime;

    i have never ever seen such mitigated bs as the hourly stuffing resulting from healthy permanent market operations by outfits using truly funny money;

    this crock will go to untold heights of nominal valuation just as it did from aug 82 at 100; but will the world be richer, will the people be better, yeah; let's see, dial the clock back to aug 1938 when my grandfather returned from his native Munich Germany and wrote in his diary that the state fervor of runaway economic success as being experienced masked the dangers of Adolf Hitler's dictatorial grab of power and that the daily misery of the Weimar inflation he had lived through would most likely be replaced by horrors unimaginable that could destroy Europe;

    how prophetic and i told my partners when we sold our high tech business in feb 2000 that it was a top of tops and the best thing to do was to buy bonds and pm because stocks were way overvalued;

    John Adams was quoted as saying "there are two ways to enslave our people, the first with the sword and the second with debt";

    my statement to all bulls is that nominally we'll achieve great new heights after ONE MORE CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE that sets the stage for the bounce to end all bounces because the ONLY way to eliminate the debt is to inflate the underlying currency or else seize the capital goods of private holders, which will not and cannot happen on a scale sufficiently large to truly pay back the debt
    Mar 18 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus: Low Volatility And Risky Plans [View article]
    thank you for your timely but tame article and it was nice of sa to let you put it here in a well sanitized setting;

    maybe gazprom/ putin have the solution; we'll see
    Mar 18 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis on. S&P 500 futures -1% and the euro -1.2% as Brussels "faced with a drowning member state, instead of throwing the Cypriot people a lifebuoy, (throws) a millstone around its neck." EU leaders risk triggering bank runs in Cyprus (and elsewhere?) by going after bank depositors to fund the country's bank bailout. [View news story]
    you bet macro investor; i put my big money where my big mouth is; how about you?

    try 2000 short friday for starters; think i'll make a buck or two on the cover?? should i cover pre-market or wait until the volume actually returns to this bs 'market' at 0930?

    maybe gazprom eg putin saves the day and thumbs more than his nose at the west and then the fun really kicks in;

    sure cyprus has been the stealth gateway to the euro for russia et al, but wars get started over this; nothing like a new sub base and the russian sailors i used to party with would love nothing more than another warm weather port to enjoy while they polish the 24 mirv'd missiles
    Mar 18 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus Will Bring The Red With It [View article]
    i oh forgot to include abegaz in my sa list of favorite bulls along with other post on the joy of being cypriot or is that russian or british or italian or greek or spanish or french or irish or ... have i left anybody out,

    OR AMERICAN???????????

    go guys, i didn't quite sell everything and i held off the big buy on tlt waiting for that vaunted 112 but am happy at 115
    Mar 18 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australia faces a "massive hit to government revenues" that "will inevitably continue to impact beyond the current year," says Treasurer Wayne Swan. The deficit increased a further A$4.6B ($4.8B) in the first four weeks of 2013 - above Swan's February estimate of A$2B - taking the total shortfall for the first seven months of the fiscal year to A$26.8B. [View news story]
    hey tack; have you gotten any real money in these markets??

    or just a few shekels to keep you busy between tee times?

    try shorting WBK at 160 to get a taste of where the aussies are going
    Mar 18 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis on. S&P 500 futures -1% and the euro -1.2% as Brussels "faced with a drowning member state, instead of throwing the Cypriot people a lifebuoy, (throws) a millstone around its neck." EU leaders risk triggering bank runs in Cyprus (and elsewhere?) by going after bank depositors to fund the country's bank bailout. [View news story]
    to macro investor, tack, petrarch and all of the wonderful bulls who have been making my days happy as i dumped ten of thousands of longs on this market that can only go upppppp...

    thank you, because selling axp over 66; hig over 26; pru over 60; ibm at damn near 215, mmm at 106; shorting the heck out of ph at 98, man, it was sweet

    and no, i won't buy this dip...have you been watching the masters of our universe at gs???; why did it suddenly cap off at 158-9 and has struggled to stay in the 150's? a very good reason it now seems; but this dip is not THE DIP... go back and examine how the merval dumped and how carlos slim made out being a patient buyer

    guess i'll head back to the safety of my zh rock for now and watch the dax open in a couple of hours; hey, the guys out east are having a lot of fun this morning, so i might actually turn up the cnbc sound to hear miss maria blubbering...
    Mar 18 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Canary In The Stock Market Coal Mine [View article]
    rich w says it all; you don't go broke booking a profit;

    mr parnell might add the eurocrats handling of cyprus bank accounts to the canary choir;

    and to abegaz, keep buying, i'm still selling...
    Mar 16 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corrections And Bull Markets [View article]
    yeah, i guess i should back off on that no way... but i still see a lot of your wonderful use of that expression "chicken long" all day across more than 80 key large cap stocks i am watching and trading;

    i use a bunch of pc's and large screens to create an overwhelming information environment that can show how the program trading responds to news flow versus how the ppt and interventionists when they show up affect individual issues;

    obviously kevin, the latter could care less for yield as their motives are different but the program trading even when done with easier money still acts very skittish and lacks the driving confidence i have seen in early april 2009 or right after the 4th of july 2009 or march 2010 or late jan 2011 or even april 2012;

    no, the bid vanishes, the ask holds up, gets a little dribble down to minute bite sized chunks and then a nudge, another nudge; on the low permanent market operation days any shred of less than good news and it digs lower with volume picking up and on the high pomo days wow, like a zombie;

    so my bet is that april 7 does not bring more up but rather sets a stage for what you predicted which is an earlier letdown; i do not know about you but i am convinced that the fed will not rates run away and their line in the sand is 2.2 on the 10yr which equates to about 112 on the tlt;

    this ponzi clearly depends on containing the hyperinflationist talk to mere chatter and several months of cpi/ppi data strung together showing .7's would cripple the confidence game so i believe 1650 would maybe sep/oct mark after a reset of a 120 point 3 week adjustment

    that is my explanation of "no way" but you are indeed correct and i will remember your admonition; thanks
    Mar 15 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Alarming Signs For Wall Street [View article]
    actually hype is great to sell to; i'm not as good as Tom Armistead in going all cash but i've bailed more longs this week than i have in years;

    hey i am all for the giddyup; i am convinced that great nominal new highs will yet be achieved in the years ahead but think athex or merval to understand the cleansing that will take place;

    last may was a great time to buy athex and not just because of mario draghi; no, the greeks finally are adjusting to the eventual reality and internally are making the transition back to their own economy good or bad
    Mar 15 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's Upside Potential Far Outweighs The Risks [View article]
    i have found cvx to be a good trading stock because it will run ahead of the pack and on the pullbacks drops quick, so you can hold a few longs, let it run, close, short and then cover; its sensitivity is more market related and less immediate oil pricing

    i have wondered about apa languishing; i got nailed up top holding longs in the 90's to cover call options, oh well it happens

    overall, i like cvx as a long for its more expansive and innovative exploration which as you said can find more trouble;

    anybody buying now for buy and hold is buying the rush-in top and the fed cannot let interest rates soar, so it will take some steam out of this bull engine and make treasuries once again a sought after item; since cvx appeals to a lot of the same crowd, you'll see a sharp drop from the low 120's on cvx back to 110-112 in a heartbeat, then let it decay to 105 and there it's a good buy;

    sure you get a 3% dividend; you buy it now at 122, take a 10-12% capital hit and then you have to recoup from there; add in increasing supply and of course the upcoming economic "oh my's" and it could crater back to 102-3 easily
    Mar 15 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corrections And Bull Markets [View article]
    well kevin, we got the popoff around the 1520ish mark we both gravitated to; we got the instant pop back up and now the roar;

    i always sell my longs a little too early because i hate the feeling of selling them for the same price AFTER i miss the top so i set a profit that i'm happy with, forget about what i didn't make and then when the roar comes, i short with fury and ladder my covers over the two-three week stretch it takes to make the bottom when you are talking corrections

    no way has this "chicken long" market a current 1650 top, no way
    Mar 14 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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