Paul Meisel's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/3940/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/59130-do-pickup-truck-sales-make-any-sense?source=feed#comment-108525 108525
In my suburban neighborhood, it is odder to have two cars and no truck. The people who do are largely retirees who have aged beyond doing home and yard projects on their own.

I have been without a truck for two years now, and have had to borrow a neighbor's several times. Guess what my next vehicle will be?]]> Sun, 06 Jan 2008 12:00:23 -0500
In my suburban neighborhood, it is odder to have two cars and no truck. The people who do are largely retirees who have aged beyond doing home and yard projects on their own.

I have been without a truck for two years now, and have had to borrow a neighbor's several times. Guess what my next vehicle will be?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59012-how-far-might-housing-prices-fall?source=feed#comment-108198 108198
The average family home, on the other hand, has grown in size over the last 15 years -- a 2500 sf house used to be a mansion and now is just "nice".

This comparison is logical but statistically biased when looking at the universe. There needs to be something to sort apples from oranges.]]> Fri, 04 Jan 2008 07:55:48 -0500
The average family home, on the other hand, has grown in size over the last 15 years -- a 2500 sf house used to be a mansion and now is just "nice".

This comparison is logical but statistically biased when looking at the universe. There needs to be something to sort apples from oranges.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58801-black-swans-real-estate-and-financial-stocks?source=feed#comment-107897 107897 ]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2008 17:30:12 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58460-e-w-scripps-company-a-raging-short?source=feed#comment-107069 107069 Thu, 27 Dec 2007 13:54:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58465-subprime-root-cause-analysis?source=feed#comment-107067 107067 Thu, 27 Dec 2007 13:47:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58215-fisking-ben-stein-on-goldman-s-wrongdoing?source=feed#comment-106756 106756 Mon, 24 Dec 2007 17:02:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/57698-wishful-thinking-at-the-new-york-times?source=feed#comment-106032 106032 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 07:32:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/56370-why-do-financial-firms-take-too-much-risk?source=feed#comment-104221 104221 Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:10:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/55285-sears-bid-for-restoration-hardware-wsj-s-weak-financial-analysis?source=feed#comment-103199 103199 Tue, 27 Nov 2007 14:42:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51289-countrywide-s-henry-cisneros-was-a-useless-board-member?source=feed#comment-99843 99843 Thu, 25 Oct 2007 20:02:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51130-countrywide-the-lender-who-helped-people-save-their-homes?source=feed#comment-99841 99841
Todd, if you are going to lead with this, you should put in some of your rationale for the opinion.

The fact that Mozilo has been selling a lot of stock for a long time, and that it increased about a year ago, is not news to those following the stock. (Disclosure, I own none and have not.) A lot of executives sell a lot of stock to diversify, to send grandkids to college, to buy vacation homes and retirement hobby businesses...

I just think that if you are going to express an opinion like this you should follow up with your rationale so there is no wondering what information or insight your opinion is based on.

Although experience has taught me not to underestimate greed, in Mozilo's situation, to do anything overtly illegal would be colossally stupid -- given the visibility of his stock and his previous selling he would have to know that any change in his plans would be subject to scrutiny. Maybe I just wear rose colored glasses but I just see a rich guy who has too much of his money in one basket and is trying to move it in an orderly fashion......]]> Thu, 25 Oct 2007 19:49:41 -0400
Todd, if you are going to lead with this, you should put in some of your rationale for the opinion.

The fact that Mozilo has been selling a lot of stock for a long time, and that it increased about a year ago, is not news to those following the stock. (Disclosure, I own none and have not.) A lot of executives sell a lot of stock to diversify, to send grandkids to college, to buy vacation homes and retirement hobby businesses...

I just think that if you are going to express an opinion like this you should follow up with your rationale so there is no wondering what information or insight your opinion is based on.

Although experience has taught me not to underestimate greed, in Mozilo's situation, to do anything overtly illegal would be colossally stupid -- given the visibility of his stock and his previous selling he would have to know that any change in his plans would be subject to scrutiny. Maybe I just wear rose colored glasses but I just see a rich guy who has too much of his money in one basket and is trying to move it in an orderly fashion......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51163-where-was-the-bubble-houses-rates-or-credit?source=feed#comment-99839 99839
But -- local markets can see some huge swings. I was hunting in rural Iowa a few years back. The number of unoccupied farm houses was incredible -- farmers retired and sold or leased the farm land, but the farmer already had a house. They were either rented very cheaply or just abandoned.... on the other hand in some markets you can sell for over half a million what would cost one third of that in a smaller city in the midwest.]]> Thu, 25 Oct 2007 19:07:57 -0400
But -- local markets can see some huge swings. I was hunting in rural Iowa a few years back. The number of unoccupied farm houses was incredible -- farmers retired and sold or leased the farm land, but the farmer already had a house. They were either rented very cheaply or just abandoned.... on the other hand in some markets you can sell for over half a million what would cost one third of that in a smaller city in the midwest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/49691-have-you-read-your-classic-buffett?source=feed#comment-98487 98487
Value investing requires patience, which is in short supply.]]> Fri, 12 Oct 2007 10:49:32 -0400
Value investing requires patience, which is in short supply.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48438-wheeee-new-homes-sales-prices-in-freefall?source=feed#comment-97114 97114 Fri, 28 Sep 2007 15:02:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48363-robert-shiller-s-real-track-record?source=feed#comment-97113 97113
The market is not a zero sum game; over the long run it goes up. ]]> Fri, 28 Sep 2007 14:48:30 -0400
The market is not a zero sum game; over the long run it goes up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47853-the-scandal-of-options-backdating?source=feed#comment-96542 96542
But management integrity is a big deal -- over the long haul lying to and misleading people is bad for business. The idea that financial statements, SEC filings, and other public disclosures are accurate and representational is at the heart of our markets. And who of us willingly does business with a person or firm that we know has lied to others and may be lying to us?]]> Fri, 21 Sep 2007 10:11:46 -0400
But management integrity is a big deal -- over the long haul lying to and misleading people is bad for business. The idea that financial statements, SEC filings, and other public disclosures are accurate and representational is at the heart of our markets. And who of us willingly does business with a person or firm that we know has lied to others and may be lying to us?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46876-the-case-for-stock-buybacks-vs-dividends?source=feed#comment-95913 95913
NB: If Ford had concentrated on costs and bought back a little stock in the late 90s, instead of buying companies and continuing a dividend during a down cycle, the stock would be considerably higher today.... just as an example of one company. The autos turned from steady earners (though somewhat cyclical) in the 50s and 60s, to inconsistent earners in the 80s and 90s -- but remained committed to their dividend policy even as their strategies and situation changed. ]]> Thu, 13 Sep 2007 10:02:48 -0400
NB: If Ford had concentrated on costs and bought back a little stock in the late 90s, instead of buying companies and continuing a dividend during a down cycle, the stock would be considerably higher today.... just as an example of one company. The autos turned from steady earners (though somewhat cyclical) in the 50s and 60s, to inconsistent earners in the 80s and 90s -- but remained committed to their dividend policy even as their strategies and situation changed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46876-the-case-for-stock-buybacks-vs-dividends?source=feed#comment-95708 95708 Tue, 11 Sep 2007 10:08:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/46772-brand-value-vs-book-value?source=feed#comment-95625 95625
I do think this kind of academic work is considerably more useful than one more obtuse article on the efficiency of markets.....]]> Mon, 10 Sep 2007 09:23:34 -0400
I do think this kind of academic work is considerably more useful than one more obtuse article on the efficiency of markets.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46726-countrywide-ceo-gets-lucky-grantitis?source=feed#comment-95624 95624 Mon, 10 Sep 2007 08:53:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/46318-a-demon-of-our-own-design?source=feed#comment-95196 95196
Thanks.]]> Wed, 05 Sep 2007 13:43:08 -0400
Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46256-why-do-we-want-people-to-own-homes?source=feed#comment-95076 95076
On the other hand, try finding a rental suitable for a large family in suburban mid-America. It's very difficult -- the few available will be houses that for some reason the prior owner couldn't or wouldn't sell.

The primary rentals in my part of the country are 2 bedroom apartments and "starter" size homes -- maybe 1000-1200 square feet. Landlords buy them because they are reasonably priced and rent quick.

So at least part of the trend towards purchase is buyer preference for the available product.

But there is a good public policy reason to support home ownership. Anecdotal evidence and historical observation indicate that owners maintain the property better than tenants or landlords, and that communities tend to be more stable. That is a political, rather than economic reason, to subsidize ownership -- just like the difference is tax rates for married filing jointly.]]> Tue, 04 Sep 2007 11:07:23 -0400
On the other hand, try finding a rental suitable for a large family in suburban mid-America. It's very difficult -- the few available will be houses that for some reason the prior owner couldn't or wouldn't sell.

The primary rentals in my part of the country are 2 bedroom apartments and "starter" size homes -- maybe 1000-1200 square feet. Landlords buy them because they are reasonably priced and rent quick.

So at least part of the trend towards purchase is buyer preference for the available product.

But there is a good public policy reason to support home ownership. Anecdotal evidence and historical observation indicate that owners maintain the property better than tenants or landlords, and that communities tend to be more stable. That is a political, rather than economic reason, to subsidize ownership -- just like the difference is tax rates for married filing jointly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45921-why-countrywide-is-done?source=feed#comment-94722 94722
That Countrywide was in difficulty was undoubtable -- but with BoA taking a big stake, their eventual recovery to at least reasonable health is highly likely, and complete failure highly unlikely.]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2007 11:15:34 -0400
That Countrywide was in difficulty was undoubtable -- but with BoA taking a big stake, their eventual recovery to at least reasonable health is highly likely, and complete failure highly unlikely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45577-ken-lewis-savvy-countrywide-investment?source=feed#comment-94662 94662 Tue, 28 Aug 2007 13:54:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45451-bank-of-america-countrywides-white-knight?source=feed#comment-94501 94501
Meanwhile CFC may have had to sell the whole company, they only have to sell a piece (although at a big discount), protecting their investors.

Smart.]]> Fri, 24 Aug 2007 10:50:35 -0400
Meanwhile CFC may have had to sell the whole company, they only have to sell a piece (although at a big discount), protecting their investors.

Smart.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45500-cramer-s-performance-barron-s-findings-are-not-surprising?source=feed#comment-94494 94494
I am a little more surprised not to see critiques on Barron's -- they publish everything that everyone recommends, and lots of those picks are lousy. And some of their articles verge on the unreadable. I finally gave my subscription up.

Finally -- Cramer's show isn't really about the picks, it's about the thought process of making the picks. An interesting article could be written about that.....]]> Fri, 24 Aug 2007 10:29:37 -0400
I am a little more surprised not to see critiques on Barron's -- they publish everything that everyone recommends, and lots of those picks are lousy. And some of their articles verge on the unreadable. I finally gave my subscription up.

Finally -- Cramer's show isn't really about the picks, it's about the thought process of making the picks. An interesting article could be written about that.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45450-is-the-normalization-of-housing-prices-a-realistic-expectation?source=feed#comment-94453 94453
Is there any reason we should expect housing to increase over the long term by substantial margins above the GDP increase? The tax benefit of own-vs.-rent is old news and should be baked into behaviors.... the baby boomers have been in home-ownership brackets for years..... why should we expect more of society's resources, on a percentage basis, to go into housing year after year?]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2007 20:45:23 -0400
Is there any reason we should expect housing to increase over the long term by substantial margins above the GDP increase? The tax benefit of own-vs.-rent is old news and should be baked into behaviors.... the baby boomers have been in home-ownership brackets for years..... why should we expect more of society's resources, on a percentage basis, to go into housing year after year?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45338-the-transportation-fuel-of-the-future?source=feed#comment-94452 94452
Economic feasibility is the issue with all alternative energy sources.]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2007 20:30:27 -0400
Economic feasibility is the issue with all alternative energy sources.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45334-there-s-just-no-need-for-a-fed-cut?source=feed#comment-94442 94442 Thu, 23 Aug 2007 17:00:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45411-five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-cut-rates?source=feed#comment-94441 94441
Disclosure: I was once a serious econometrics student. I left that field because I could never reconcile my personal standards for good work to the unfortunate difficulty in obtaining consistent and correct answers.]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2007 16:48:58 -0400
Disclosure: I was once a serious econometrics student. I left that field because I could never reconcile my personal standards for good work to the unfortunate difficulty in obtaining consistent and correct answers.]]>