Paul Meisel

Black Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks

There are several good points on both sides of this argument, overstated a little perhaps. Modern portfolio theory and its academic supporters imply a precision that is not warranted --- but some data is better than none. The statistical assumptions and methods behind QPP have some validity, but are not perfect either -- nothing in forecasting ever is!

Why Do Financial Firms Take Too Much Risk?

Leverage and less than transparent balance sheets have always been issues in properly evaluating the risk and value of companies and assets. The "different" factor here was the combination of overconfidence in the underlying asset -- real estate values -- with the persistence of deterioration, at the same time many intermediaries had become very leveraged in these instruments. Banks and thrifts that tend to own their mortgages do not appear to be experiencing discomfort -- they can tolerate the relatively small, to them, deterioration in collateral.

Cramer Thinks Citigroup Breakup Would Unlock Value: I Disagree

Talk about a complete disclosure statement!

I find your logic of brand recognition compelling. However, I think that the group as a whole trading at a discount to the market symbolic of Cramer's argument. For two decades now bundled businesses have tended to trade at a discount to pure plays.

I think Citi could improve either way. Your way would probably be easier to execute.

Citigroup's Dividend Announcement Strategy

I echo CrossProfits question -- particularly with stocks that have established and regular dividend histories. I can see that a large special dividend may create a trading situation, but sophisticated traders will eliminate or minimize arbitrage opportunities, so valuations should be fair. Why change the established practice?