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Dan Fichana

Dan Fichana
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  • Tesla Kicks China Plans Into High Gear [View article]
    Can your run the numbers for your solar to hydrogen conversion?
    5 kwhr solar array over a typical day produces around 16-22 kwhr daily.

    So let us go on the low side. So that gives 0.53 kwhr/mile
    For a 22 kwhr daily supply, that is 0.73 kwhr/mile

    Vs an EV which gives roughly 0.3 kwhr per mile

    So even with the solar to split water, it is twice as inefficient vs charging an EV car.
    Apr 20 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    I need a bailout,
    Musk stated that the graphite comes from Japan not China

    http://bit.ly/PkqeM0

    "Tesla CEO Elon Musk says on Twitter that the graphite used in its lithium-ion batteries is mined "in a very clean way" and comes from Japan"
    Apr 20 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - 20 Key Risks That Longs Are Ignoring [View article]
    tom,
    Yes, you can say that but logically, would you use a supercharger and burn through 40 minuts-1 hr of your time.

    Fremont does not really count since it is also used for the initial charge before the cars go on a long trip. I pulled up my logs, shows where it was charged. Prior to getting the car, it says Fremont.

    You assume that people will spend 40 min-1 hr once or twice a week to save $15. That does not make much sense, people value their time more than that.

    Sure there are extremely cheap people, some also buy expensive cars too, but again, for most people, even purchasing a 35 K car, the hourly rate is higher than what they would be saving using the supercharger.

    Why would I waste 1 hour, save myself $10-15 when I could be home and doing more constructive things?
    Apr 20 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - 20 Key Risks That Longs Are Ignoring [View article]
    So let me get this straight...
    You think people will spend up to 100 hours at a supercharger per year charging their car?

    Well that is like $1000 savings or $10 per hour. Not really worth it unless you really need it- charge at home, even an extension cord and a 110 V will get that type of voltage/amperage for daily usage.

    But let us take real reports
    http://aol.it/1i6dq2I

    8 M miles as of Jan using superchargers; on average, from the miles it appears that they are used for ~ 5% of the total miles driven. Yes, some can use it daily, some not at all. Point is 5% of the time is not significant.

    Also some businesses volunteer to give the "free land" or devoted parking spaces to the supercharger. Think about it, it is a passive parking spot, they give up 2 spots for the equipment and 4 spots for the cars, It'll get used by maybe 15 cars per day, maybe go inside, grab a bite to eat spend money.
    Apr 20 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Kicks China Plans Into High Gear [View article]
    I need a bailout
    You do understand the reason why auto sales are slow in Jan and Feb right?
    It is the same reason home sales slump during the same period also... winter and weather.
    Telsa does not have an "issue" in that sense since they have an unmet demand.

    With regards to the "slowing US sales" well, that is a tough cookie to determine because of the demand in other countries.

    It is possible to keep the same or lower time frames AND have increased demand. I don't know why anyone overlooks the fact that they increased production.
    If let us say you increased production by 2000/quarter, or ~150 ish per week, and you send 1,500 of those overseas. Well that extra 500 goes into making the wait appear to decrease for those in the domestic market.
    Apr 20 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    1. The Roadster batteries are older, lithium cobalt oxide so they are not as stable as the Model S type batteries. NOT all lithium batteries are created equal in terms on energy density and longevity.
    Lithium Cobalt oxide is horrible for longevity
    Lithium Nickel aluminum cobalt oxide (the ones used in the Tesla Model S) has a much better longevity profile.

    Does the battery degrade or is it just Tesla's algorithm? Well lets see, I noticed no degradation after 12000 miles. There is a guy on facebook who has over 60,000 miles and no significant degradation.

    Considering a normal car, on average lasts ~150,000 miles that guy is a significant way there already.
    Apr 20 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    Just an FYI there is a Model S owner who already has roughly 60,000 miles on his Model S. That is kind of insane and he still has minimal battery degradation
    Apr 18 07:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    If the author presents a scientific case that is flawed or just plain wrong or uses facts which are contrary to scientific principles, how do you go about ensuring that the criteria is correct.

    Of course this is an investment website, but if you are presenting an investment case based on science, should you at least get the science correct and comply with scientific practices?
    Apr 18 03:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    The infrastructure was already in place for the Prius.

    Essentially the Prius is a normal car with great gas mileage.

    There is a compelling reason to purchase it- much cheaper fuel costs than a regular car.
    Apr 17 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Game Of The States [View article]
    Yes, the oil changes do kill us in the US, but oil changes are pretty negligible compared to the use phase (gasoline used to power the car). The repair and maintenance was very low, essentially a sliver- just wish my graphs had imported corrected.
    Apr 16 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    Hydrogen huh?
    Ever run any economics on the hydrogen economy?

    1. You have to build out the infrastructure
    2. You have to build the cars
    3. The cost of the fuel has to be competitive with other sources of energy
    4. The cars have to be competitive with current competition with respect to other cars.

    Just because it is perceived to be "green" does not mean that people will buy it.
    If that was the case, no one would buy a MB V8 and we would all be driving Prius. Some car companies think it's enough to make a car and "if you make it they will come" well that is not true.

    There has to be other compelling reasons to purchase the car.
    Apr 16 07:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    Rokku
    It still amazes me the lack of common sense and basic mathematical skills of people whom "push" the oil to gasoline uses virtually no energy.

    At this point, people should be skilled enough to put together a little excel sheet and do what we in engineering call an Energy Balance
    Step 1:
    Take a barrel of oil- figure out the "Energy" per barrel on a weight basis (lb or kg basis).
    Step 2:
    Then you take what is being output as products on a kg or lb basis (or do the volume to weight conversion, never do volume; always weight this is due to the miscibility- volumes change, but 50 kg is still 50 kg regardless)

    Step 3: Obtain the standard energy per kg or per lb of those materials

    Step 4: Multiply those materials by the energy per kg or per lb- now you are left with energy

    Step 5: Divide the energy of the output products by the energy in a "barrel of oil" to the energy of the output products.

    Step 6: That gives the scientific energy loss. Depending on which crude you use and the refinery, it is between 8%-16% and that is just the refinery.

    Heck, I give this same problem to 11 year olds and make them do it by hand- good math and science practice so there is no excuse why grown adults should not be able to do it.

    If you get more energy out than you put in; you just created energy and you should redo the calculations, and if that happened you have something going on like a nuclear reaction ( E=Mc^2), and that doesn't happen inside an oil refinery to any large degree.
    Apr 16 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    I can tell you in 4 hours of just "sitting" im traffic with the heater on in 10 F (-12 C) for those whom like SI units better; I lost about 10.6 kwhr.

    That is equivalent to 1/3 a gallon of gas in terms of energy; or 1/6 of what the gasoline counterparts were using.

    You use about 1/2 gallon idling per hr as per AAA.
    Apr 16 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    Ford; not only that; look at the "carbon foot print" life cycles listed.

    Big flags right there. Lomborg- brought up on scienfic dishonesty charges, and he does even have a chemistry or environmental science degree.

    The hawkins study. The study was so bad that they had to print an addedum.

    Just my 2 cents, but basing a paper or part of a paper on 2 discredited studies... Probably not a good idea
    Apr 16 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies [View article]
    French battery specialist:
    Look at the motivation of the author:
    He advised his clients to short Tesla.

    But there are many massive errors in his analysis and lack of understanding, double counting, and using older data despite the fact that newer data is avaliable.

    Then you get into comparing a Tesla Model S to a Honda, doing a full life cycle on electricity generation, cherry picking data, using ONLY winter EV data, using mpge (real) for Tesla and EPA rated numbers for the others.

    See where the data gets screwed up.

    I think in an earlier post, I identified 15 or so errors in the "report".
    Apr 16 05:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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