DerekNJND

Cramer Does It Again with CIT Call

well last I knew, we all have the option of NOT watching his show right?

I'm not defending the dude, I'm never out of the office in time to watch him early, but sometimes when i'm doing my stock research at night, I'll put him on and listen with half an ear while doing other stuff.

In life, you should learn to not only identify someone's weaknesses, but identify strengths. Sure, his picks are absurd at times, and his defense and narrowminded view of his own picks is infuriating. Plus he recommends stocks w/o giving ppl a timeframe or an entry point. Most annoying, I've heard him tell people to buy stocks that have JUST REPORTED blow out numbers, (PNC, SBUX 3Q earnings, home depot, etc.). Why on earth would anyone tell folks to run into a stock that just blew out estimates and is trading up huge in afterhours. Talk about buying a top, lol.

Most recently, he suggested strongly ppl buy AT&T when it was over $27. "next stop 30!!" right. it reversed the next day and can barely close above $26 now, instead dwelling mostly in the $25.40-25.90 range. so anyone who bought that was down the second they laid out the money and will be waiting to get back to even, and perhaps help him sell books lol.

but the fact of the matter is he is a useful source for passing along useful murmors from hedgies and insider, you KNOW from his past he was quite a network of sources. And while he doesnt attribute predictions to anyone (except if its someone from his Web site) you can tell he talks to ppl who move markets because his overall "get in or get out" of stocks in general is pretty on point.

I would never buy a stock he recommends, and in fact, I sell anything I own that he suggets. I think institutions short his reccos because they almost always get pummeled the next day or certainly within the next week. I personally dont think your average joe who already has a fulltime job should even be attempting to stockpick. ESPECIALLY if they're so idea-starved that they're calling a TV show for help. If I needed help that badly, I would simply not pick stocks and buy index funds and etfs.


On Nov 02 11:19 AM Trader85 wrote:

> Kramer, Kudlow, Leisman, Neal, et al. are the paramount of irresponsibility.
> Think about their recommendations and guest "experts". There is
> absolutely NO accountability for any of them. They are relentlessly
> obnoxious and confrontational about everything; honestly have you
> ever heard a guest finish a complete thought without being interrupted
> by one of these idiots sputtering out sentence fragments just to
> ask the same question they were in the middle of answering already.
> I hate CNBC, finally got access to Bloomberg TV.

Earnings Preview: PNC Financial

Pretty sure PNC affirmed year long guidance between $1.70-$2/share during the Q&A last quarters earnings call. Factoring in their quarterly EPS year to date, which includes a loss 1 quarter and anothr quarter around 60cnts, safe to look for at least 50cnts per share EPS in both Q3 andQ4. In other words, PNC beats on bottomline tomorrow :)

U.S Dollar: Chart Points to Major Reversal/Rally

dollar bulls need to stop citing the technicals for 2 reasons:

forex technicals do NOT behave the same way equity technicals do, and indicators like MACD and stockastics are far less reliable, in fact, almost useless in forex.

even if you concede the technicals, the setup for a reversal has been in place for MONTHS now, with RSI and MACD divergence vs price on the daily, intraday and weekly charts ...but the big reversal has yet to come. at some point, the setup really doesnt make the reversal case stronger, only an actual reversal will make your case stronger

Reading Palm: Pre Sales and the Secondary Offering

not sure why everyone hates on palm. sure, they're like the shortest kid on the basketball team, but thats like being the worst player on an all-star team. In any case, when considering competitors on a global scale, Nokia should be included--a company that I was bullish on most of the recent era, hoping they'd adopt smart phone technology well enough to hang onto their strength--market share. but they're not and Apple in China, possibly going around ATT soon really hurts Nokia the most, and RIMM second. I just dont see how the big players are a real threat to Palm...they'll be the best alternative for those who can't afford an iPhone or BlackBerry, or dont have service/plan with a better option available. Their main competition in that space is full of NOBODIES!! Nokia will fade, LG? Samsung? Sony/Ericcson? Moto? Palm's a leap and a jump ahead of those names.

So I wish everone would quit stacking Palm up next to Apple--they really dont even compete in the same primary markets, with a niche in people ages 25+ who dont want the flash or cost of an Iphone, and either cant afford a BlackBerry or just like them (I personally hate them lol).

Plus, Palm's chart is a thing of beauty. Technically speaking, even the biggest doubters have to admit the stock as been resilient despite a weak telcom sector in general lately and the unclear fundamental issues are overshadowed by that beautiful chart, for me at least. if earnings couldnt be the catalyst to send Palm back below $13-14 range, not sure what will beat this stock down. The dilution of an offering? Haaaaa, not in this market. If bulls digested the hundreds of billions in shares of C, BAC, MS, WFC, etc etc. in April and May, I think they can swallow a little more Palm.

maybe its a suckers trade, but I stepped in down near support on Friday to get long. Rallied to $14 by the bell, bought in at $13.79. My stop will be very tight here--overall market strength could be a concern early next week and although buying was strong around $13.8 all day Friday, a break through that area on high volume and this likely goes to the next suport level around $12.20ish. But, worst case scenario, Palm revisits the 200 DMA which currently sits around $11.25...sure that would be a 20% drop from $14, but it would also be a heck of a buying opportunity. If the market stays sideways or upward Mon-Tues, Palm will trade back close to $15 on the momentum of the report and buyers of the secondary. My sell target is $14.72, long 1200 @ $13.80

Is Risk Dead, Or Are We Experiencing a Bear Market Junk Rally?

one thing the "Z score" and the "junk index" argument neglects to mention is: PRICE. It also ignores the shift in buy and hold to shorter term trading. I read somewhere that the average stock issue is held less than 9 months now (long positions, including all market players). That was once something like 2 years? So naturally, lower holding times will lead to more buyers willingly getting into the junk names because they're trades, not investments.

I guess you can hear this, say this and know this to be 100% true, but some folks dont get it. We are in a traders market. Cheap, high volume, risky stocks are better trades than JNJ or Kelloggs. Hence the "froth" everyone continues to point out. Not sure how active trading is a signal that a correction looms, looks like aggressive capitalism to me. Call me nuts.

I make the price argument because stocks, as with any commodity, product, good, service, etc. will emerge from this recession more expensive than when we entered. Does this mean the companies are worth more in terms of real money? (inflation, interest adjusted dollars) Probably not. But a loaf of bread probably doesnt do much more for a consumer than it did 50 years ago yet nobody questions its worth at $2 instead of 20 cents. So too, stocks will keep pace with inflation. Where is the inflation? Well conversely, with a devaluing dollar, and low interest rates, where else is there for investors to allocate assets other than equities?? Looks like a win-win for stocks no matter what the dollar does long-term. Hey, I could hold $100 USD and watch it be worth 75% less vs foreign currencies within a few months, or buy stocks in a market that is at LEAST keeping pace with the rate of dollar decline, if not outpacing it, so that I can exchange my stocks back into dollars or other investments if strength to the currency ever returns.

But dont take my word for it, look at the market from March til now :)

Blackstone Is the Top Player, But Is This Just Icing on the Cake?

not to say "I told ya so" but just wanted to reiterate that BX was not forming a descending triangle.....as I posted above, getting long anywhere below $13 was wise, those waiting for $11 never got a shot and probably wont for quite some time. Of course, the Goldman addition to the Conviction Buy List helped spark the move, but support had been solid between $12.50-$12.70 even before that.

BX should continue upward even during this expiration week--high open interest at the $15 call level, as many stocks seem to "levitate" towards their highest open interest level during expirations, this would be a bullish signal.


On Aug 28 11:39 AM Traveler 1 wrote:

> The chart above is a decending triangle sugesting that a close below
> todays low could see this stock go to the $11- 11.5 range which would
> be a good entry point.

Friday Wrap: This Market's Running on Empty

oh man, here we go again...bears setting themselves up to go all in on the short side and enjoy 2 good days of gains before gettin steamrolled by the next 75 point move upwards.

Your best strategy for betting on pullbacks is:

1.) buy puts on the indices
2.) buy CALLS on short ETFs
3.) short individual stocks

I wont go into reasons why every other strategy wont work, but for people still buying the SDS or the SKF, I truly feel sorry for you. If you believe the market is being propped up by whoever (PPT, GS) or just supported naturally by institutions and mutual fund mgrs who are behind, either case leads to a strong S&P since this is the vehicle these players use to achieve their goals: fund mgrs buy mainly within the indices, PPT/GS jack up the futures to move the market etc. So shorting an index or owning the SDS is just absurd at this point. Ask anyone who bought it during the IDENTICAL SCENARIOS as now back in mid-May, mid-June, and again 2 weeks ago in early August. Yea, if you can find them alive

Volume? I'm sick of hearing this as a bearish argument. The short interest just went from hundreds of billions of shares to a 90% reduction...eliminating alot of the shorts who were shorting w/o taking the proper steps to borrow shares to cover. What's happened since? volume has declined across the board. So the only volume missing is short activity and short covering.

Proof? Look at a situation that would involve obvious short covering, and see if the volume picks up to March/April levels. Look at the last time everyone piled into the short side, 2 weeks ago after the Shanghai/Chinese meltdown. Shorts piled in Monday and Tuesday, the ensuing rally especially that Friday, had volume equal to the days back in March. Why? Short covering.

So its not bearish that volume isnt always that high--the volume as not natural buying. the market can still go up w/o short covering because it wont be getting slammed down as quickly during pullbacks.

RIP volume argument.

Blackstone Is the Top Player, But Is This Just Icing on the Cake?

no no, people, you get in BX right here if you're interested. On a valuation basis, this stock is still extremely cheap--if they come anywhere near delivering the types of earnings that it sounds like they could, this is an easy 50% gain by next earnings call.

Also, from a technical view, traveler, why dont you stand on your hands and look at that chart? or just flip the screen around or something

you'll catch what we call an "inverted" head and shoulders that completed when BX broke through $12.40. Now, sure enough, that same area will be support (note the intraday low of $12.70 on Thurs). I got in Wednesday at $12.90, and traded right into that ripe 30 cents/share yield that will be paid to holders as of 9/1 (8/27 ex div). Know another sign of a strong stock about to make an upward move? It doesnt go down when most stocks would. Take Thursday for example, trading price was adjusted for the yield amount, BUT the stock traded up that day instead of selling off as many stocks do on the ex div date.

Volume isnt blowing me away right now, but it was above average for BX on a week where volume was off throughout the market. Buyers came in anywhere below $13 picking off lots of 20k and 30k at a time. Very good sign.

you want to wait for $11 you will be waiting a long time. Take a look at the calls traders were coming after this week--up to $15-$17 for the front month, and going out of the money even on the October and December premium.


On Aug 28 11:39 AM Traveler 1 wrote:

> The chart above is a decending triangle sugesting that a close below
> todays low could see this stock go to the $11- 11.5 range which would
> be a good entry point.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

right right right. been sayin that since march right? yawn.

Gotta love the bears. They predict selloffs every day for months on end in a bull market. Then you have a 2 day correction and they all jump up and say "I told ya so!!" Well, if you constantly predict a selloff , yes, you are going to EVENTUALLY be right. But at what cost? Maybe the market revisits March lows? Maybe it retraces back to 875 soon? Maybe the deepest correction we see for the next 3 months is merely down to 955?

The point is, bears are wrong, and have been wrong for the past 6 months. Shorting the market isnt profitable, so you bears simply folow a market thats costing you tons of dough while stubbornly digging in your heels refusing to be long because of the "impending correction" that just wont seem to come.

Seriously, I'm not making a case for a move up or down from here, but at some point you have to trade the market you're in, not the market you WANT to be in. Like I said, maybe the market goes below March levels this Monday. Maybe it doesnt. But between March and now I've traded stocks and caught doubles, triples, not to mention countless 25%-50% moves trading weekly or every few days. I've been bearish at times on the broad market and tightened up my stops, and I've done enough homework to avoid trading into the May correction and the deeper late June correction, as to avoid major trading losses.

Its not about being right or wrong, its about making money. Being bearish isnt making you a dime, and again, maybe you catch a nice down move and m ake back some of your losses, maybe you dont. But you're swimming against the tide--you talk about a waterfall? LOL being short has been like riding a boogie board down niagra falls for 30 days and 30 nights.


On Aug 11 11:26 AM Donald Ingram wrote:

> Agreed. Gold and commodities are the safest play going forward.<br/>Maybe
> not a 'crash' coming. More like a gentle 'waterfall' type event with
> the curve steepening as the masses all head for the door at the same
> time!

July Same-Store Sales Summary: No Boost for Retailers

Good post, this is why I liken Macys to being a very viable option for consumers who want the higher end goods but wont pay up at a Nordstroms, factory direct or other high end department stores.

Remember, recessions hit the lower end of the economic totem pole the hardest. The wealthy still have money to spend, maybe less, but they're not trading in their Calvin Klein for Walmart jeans, or abandoning fine dining for McDonalds like many analysts will have you believe. BUT they also are not STUPID, thats why they have money, lol. So most will go to a macys and perhaps sacrifice CHOICES among quality names they always wear for a much lower price. The difference is they arent forced to an inferior product, they simply might have less to choose from. But when you're paying 30-50% less than competitors prices, as you will at Macys, often the 10 colors of Polo sweaters Macys has instead of hte 40 choices at Nordstroms is worth paying half price.

I see Macys as a winner, so dont write off all sellers of luxury type goods.


On Aug 10 04:08 PM TheCaptain wrote:

> Retail was in trouble before the recession started and will be in
> trouble after. Fashion is not like it used to be....gone are the
> days when loyalty was to one store/designer and gone are the days
> in which one "look" really ruled. Retailers counted on those two
> things to make sales. The latest look would be the new and exciting
> floor set and stores could look to their regulars to come in and
> buy. Fashion is what will continue to drive retail. Stores MUST
> have the coolest, most desirable items. Right now you can walk into
> names and find the same items at each place. This then makes it
> the "whoever has it the cheapest will win the sale" game. If anything,
> the recession is weeding out names that don't need to be in the business.
> The playing field has gotten too level within retail-it needs to
> be cleaned out.

July Same-Store Sales Summary: No Boost for Retailers

Well, lets be clear. Walmart will be a winner as a COMPANY, but the stock? Eh, not so sure there. I've been bearish on Walmart since the surge off of March lows, simply because its not a recovery play. Keep in mind, a stock market recovery and how recovery stocks or recession stocks are valued or devalued is always ahead of the "real" world economy. I'm not implying our recession is over, in fact, the more who join the camp, the less comfortable I am owning my stocks :) But the problem with Walmart THE STOCK is that the street had a recession type stock market priced into Walmart back in March. But yet many "pros" were still very bullish on the stock, when to me that seemed contrary if the market was beginning to favor higher beta recovery plays. Anyhow, most pros and analysts have spent the past quarter realizing my view and aren't jumping into Walmart ahead of earnings or even heavily at any point. I think its still too high, and its gotta come down before investors will sacrifice chances at higher % gains elsewhere for a safer stock that trades like a cable company or public utility.

Also, - beware the quarter!! I've been fading the "trade down' theory, mainly because I live in a part of the country where people ARE NOT trading down, they're not losing jobs hands over feet and home prices are still high. Obviously thats not the case everywhere, but I think analysts forecasts are assuming a mass exodus from higher end retailers, restaurants, and other cyclical goods that we just are not seeing in earnings reports. My first play on this theory was Starbucks. I equate the threat of "McCafe" to Starbucks to the trade down theory favoring Walmart over other retailers. Starbucks? blew the quarter away while most analysts said not to touch it. I bought at $13 and sold at $18 only days later. Mcafe? eek. Again, I traded Whole Foods into earnings on the same theory--jackpot. We're just not seeing consumers scale out of higher priced stores and goods like analysts forecasted. That hurts Walmart because valuations have that "flight FROM quality" priced in, when I think we've actually seen a flight TO quality if you look at Starbucks or Whole Foods.

So undoubtedly many middle class Americans wil shop at Walmart for goods they used to buy elsewhere. But upper-middle class and upper class aren't abandoning SAKS to buy Walmart jeans or avoiding the Cheesecake Factory to eat Walmart hotdogs.

if anything, Walmart stands to LOSE the most. Why? Because recessions hit the lower middle class and the lower class the hardest. Its always been that way. Why do you think McDonalnds disappointed? Of course, the recesson hits your average american the hardest. Thats the case with Walmart too. Any flight into Walmart is more than offset by Walmarts niche value shopper, their very core segment of the market, having less money to spend or not being employed.


On Aug 08 03:00 PM Mark Bern wrote:

> In the end the real winner will be Walmart. Kohl's is going to grow
> and take market share, but not to the same extent as Walmart. The
> Goodwill store is doing very well locally in Virginia, but the Walmart
> hasn't lost a hitch and the parking lot seems fuller than ever before.
>
>
> The consumer is not dead, he/she has been reborn by a taste of reality.
> Consumer habits, for a large cross-section of the population will
> remain frugal for many years as they (we) struggle to deleverage
> and prepare for the future. It hasn't affected just the baby boomers;
> it has reached down to their children who have lost jobs and moved
> back in with Mom and Dad temporarily after losing the home or being
> unable to pay rent. The problem is real and it's not going away.
> More and more people are understanding this reality and adjusting
> their spending habits more and more. And many of those adjustments
> will remain with us because the recovery, when it really does begin,
> will not be robust or create millions of jobs. The pain will linger
> and leave an indellible imprint on American society for another generation.
> Then there is the national debt to be paid which will create another
> major drag on the economy for decades.
>
> I'm usually a very optimistic kind of guy. But when I look at the
> reality of the future prospects that we, as a nation, are facing
> I just can't get too excited. Now, in the end, our way of life will
> endure. The systems is the best that's been created throughout history
> and it is very resilient. Everything will be okay eventually. But,
> this time, eventually will take a while to get here.
>
> Good luck to all and keep your powder dry because in every period
> of great calamity will be found some of the best opportunities in
> history! You know, the old "silver lining" thingy.

Do Macy's Debt Levels Indicate Weakness?

Actually, all that really matters is a good candlestick chart. Buy using the same technical indicators institutions are using, buy more after 5% or more corrections. What else do you need to know? EBIDTA? GAAAP? EPS? ROI? ROE?

how about BUY? lol

On Jun 22 10:39 AM China Expert wrote:

> I have never heard of a debt to sales ratio, I must have missed that
> in my Corp Fin 101 course. All that matters is the Net/Debt to EBITDA
> ratio, EBITDA/interest and EBITDA/FCF. Does M generate enough EBITDA
> to support its interest payments and fund its capital expenditures
> ? True free cash flow FCF has decreased in this recession like all
> retailers but couldn't M do a sale- leaseback to raise cash as M
> owns many of its stores ? The key with most retailers is to have
> enought cash/liquidity to last out the storm. I see the asset value
> in the stores as a key source of liquidity if necessary. With M holdings
> bonds maturing in 2017 yielding almost 11%, I'd say the market is
> betting that chances of a refi are fairly good.

Yield Curve Is Steep - Which Means It's a Good Time to Invest

well, not to say "I told ya so" but low and behold, the huge correction everyone was awaiting turned out to be an 8-10% setback on the S&P, less for many individual stocks.

So futurestrader, exactly as I asked before, I just dont see the amunition for this sellof the bears have been predicting. Traders are taking profits from March, theyve been doing that the whole way up . Thats why we get 5% corrections all the time. But institutional investors are either flat or in net accumulation, they're not buying in July to sell in August. Their timeframe is much longer than that, especially given that equities prices are very discounted STILL.

I enjoy watching bears be converted--but the only thing that stinks is when the bears seem to have disappeared, theres no new buyers left! So please, keep yukking it up bears. You give me confidence to keep buying.


On Jun 01 09:34 AM futurestrader wrote:

> Derek,
>
> You answered your own question..Who will initiate the sell off? The
> people who cant resist locking in 30-40% gains after realizing they
> are sitting on another time bomb....I wouldnt be so pessimistic about
> the economy if I didnt think that all is this hype is a tad premature...It
> will catch up to us..just be patient

ProShares: An All Out Defense of Leveraged ETFs

Hey Mad Scientist:

I strongly disagree with you as well as the author of this article. These leveraged ETFs are absolute JUNK, and no matter your investment experience or prowess, you're just kidding yourself by saying you've learned how to use them as "great trading vehicles."

These things were made for one reason: to give ignorant investors a "lazy" leveraged investment tool--in other words, prey on the investor who is not sophisticated or have the capital to accomplish the funds objectives in other ways. I mean, its pretty simple, if you want 3X the profit, invest 3X the money, LOL. If you want to be short financials, short the leaders like GS or JPM. Or buy puts /short calls on an index full of financial stocks. The futures markets, the short side of the trade and good ole fashioned HOMEWORK allow any investor to make better profits with LESS risk, simply by being educated enough to explore other options.

So I would say you haven't gained experience or learned from your mistake of buying a 2X ETF. If you had, you wouldnt be trading them any more, and subjecting yourself to "trading errors, futures markets, currency markets, default swaps, inflation risk" and GOD KNOWS what else these criminals put in the fine print as a way to dump all trials and errors of these new ETFs onto the investors, instead of taking the risk themselves.

Yes, they do exactly what they're supposed to do on a daily basis, I will not argue with that. But, my gut says you and most retail investors, even after reading the fine print or losing money previously, still have NO CLUE how all of those risks affect the price of these assets.

For example, lets say you are trading the QID (2x inverse Nasdaq), you buy it that morning, you plan on selling at 3:55pm. The index drops 3% that day. First of all, you aren't going to make 6% unless you bought it the day before, which then opens you up to the daily reset risk that occurs at 5 or 6 am. In other words, your trade will get hurt or helped by the daily reset, something you werent planning on. Oh, and the daily reset will already adjust for any moves in the futures markets too, like the nasday eminis. So if you dont buy the day before, and take on the overnight risk, then by the time you buy futures are already priced in and you'll not earn the full 6% you shoudve....more likely 3-4% tops.

Then, guess what happens next? Well after its daily reset at 6am, retail investors cant start trading until 8am. BUT other investors can...and they do! So say your QID is already up 2% from the previous close, then the early birds push it up to 3.5% before you can even buy it (or of course, you are forced to buy it the day before). So you buy it, the nasdaq hasnt even opened yet, but because much of the days events are already priced in, you only catch the last 2.5 points of the trade.

Oh, and then dont forget, lets say some sharp professional decides to buy 5000 calls on the QQQQ etf or on nasdaq eminis at 3:30. LOL, your QID will INSTANTLY drop 2 points at least, as many of the funds exposure lies in futures securities, the value of which decreases IMMEDIATELY after a bullish move like that.

Long story short: you buy it in the morning, sell it at 3:55pm, unless you get a very volatile day and catch it below its open price, you wont catch the whole gain. In fact, its very possible you can earn like 1% or even lose money on a Nasday 3% daily loss.

Or, other side of the story, you buy it the day before for a "1 day trade" but then you expose yourself to all sorts of overnight risks and disadvantages I mentioned above.

Finally, if these things are sooooooooo smart, and for the "savvy" why dont I see them on any money managers SEC filings? Not one. Goldman? haha. Mutual funds? yea!! Hedge funds? not a chance, these guys know real ways to play the short side without having to take "1% stop losses" to eek out a 2% gain when the market tanks and you have a 3x short ETF.

Get over it, EVERYONE. These things are the worst thing that happened to the market in a long time....As with every other thing in investing, LEARN FROM THE PROS!! Follow the top money managers, watch for high volume moves on charts, pay attention to their holdings. If they arent using leveraged ETFs, and you KNOW HOW GREEDY they are, the things are obviously junk.

The sooner you stop kidding yourself, the sooner you'll either stick to stock picking or find real ways to get leverage in futures markets, options, etc. Good luck man.


On Jul 31 02:48 PM MadScientist wrote:

> I have been trading these for about 9 months. At the start, I got
> whalloped by my own ignorance, believing that I was right even when
> the market said otherwise. At 2x the downside, it hurt a lot.<br/>
>
> Was my failure the fault of the ETF I was trading? Of course not.
> My own behaviors were at fault.
>
> More recently I have been doing quite well with these same ETFs.
> Why? I now better understand how they work, and am more careful
> about applying good money management practices (never risk more than
> 1% of your capital, use trailing stops correctly, pay close attention
> to your trading indicators rather than your emotions).
>
> Used correctly, these are great trading vehicles. I sincerely hope
> that they remain available to average investors like me.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

you guys who keep talkin about the "W" or the "next leg down" really are missing out on some SERIOUS INVESTMENT INCOME!! sure, everyone has their longterm market thesis and outlook, the S&P being near 1000 in late July was certainly not in my forecast on Jan. 1. But after a while, you gotta trade what the market deals you. Otherwise, you COULD be saying the same things for 6 more months, then another year. I mean when will you bears stop talkin about the "next leg down?" or the last part of the Elliot Wave that started in 2008, the wave 5 selloff thats impending any second now?? There are plenty of ways to interpret corrections and elliot waves on a chart--but the worst thing you can do is dig your heels in waiting for a wave that the market simply skips or abbreviates.

Many could argue we are in wave 3 of a 5 wave uptrend, and that the S&P could approach 1100 by late summer. But if the market sells off and dips below 870, thus nullifying the pattern, am I going to dig my heels in and keep buying stocks?? LOL of course not, I wouldve adjusted my position long before then. So bears, I advise you to strongly rethink the facts instead of droning on and on about these corrections we are overdue for. I mean your theories are the same now as they were at SPX 700. Please, add recent history into your prognosis, and it will be more realistic. that "3rd leg down" looks like it morphed into more of a flat correction from January through early March, and broke out into a 5 wave uptick. I know, technically the wave 4 correction upwards wont nullify the pattern unless the SPX gets back up to Sept 08 levels, but even if it doesnt, you've wasted half a year speculating instead of making money

On Jul 24 08:19 AM doubleguns wrote:

> I agree Andrew!!
>
> The higher that we go up on the second leg of a "W" recovery the
> worse the third leg down will be. I am very concerned that this is
> pure manipulation and momentum at this point. I want to see earnings
> and revenue growth together before I believe this is not going to
> come crashing back down later this fall or winter. I believe that
> the Christmas shopping season will let us know where America is heading
> but that is 4 months away.
>
> I have trailing stops in on most of my positions.