David Taylor

Considering Housing Vacancy Rates In Terms of Supply and Demand

Paul. Thanks for the comment.

Effectively, giving away one month free is the same as lower rent when you look at annual income. In the end, if a rental sits vacant for too long, prices will adjust to create some kind of incentive to get someone in the place. If not, then the landlord is sitting on 100% loss for the month.

WIth the inventory out there that is sitting vacant, I don't know that it will take too long until we see these adjustments.

Crude Oil Price Is Falling: How Do You Like Them Apples?

Ray...

I don't actually trade oil directly. Instead, I trade currencies. That being said, the Canadian dollar is heavily entrenched, amongst other currencies, with the price of oil. So, directly, no. Inderectly, yes.

Crude Oil Price Is Falling: How Do You Like Them Apples?

Paul...

Thanks for the very constructive comment. You are right. There are a lot of variables at work right now in the energy markets. I'm hopeful that most of the terror threats will work themselves out now that we have a more balanced government here in the U.S. Hopefully that also means some kind of long-term accord with Isreal and Iran. Hopefully, being the optimal word. WIth what fundamentals we have available to us right now, I'm fairly confident that the price of oil will continue to fall, as it is doing again today even in light of one of the worst storms to hit the entire U.S. in years.

Crude Oil Price Is Falling: How Do You Like Them Apples?

Greg...

Thanks for the comment. I focus primarily on the currency market, but the eqtuities markets and bond markets are very important as well. I think with oil diving like it is, there are reasons to see a continued spring in equities steps. As for oil, I've been seeing the 40's as being more and more realistic. Interesting that the "risk premia" seems to be eroding, and just this morning there was a bomb blast at a U.S. Embassy. Not likely to make any waves in the oil markets. But, a timely reminder.

America's Negative Savings Rate

Interesting angle with retirees and their nest eggs. Spending from that would continually show a decline in the savings rate. What does surprise me is the number of "close to retirement age" individuals that are just now getting on the ball of saving for retirement. I wish I had a way to disect the data from the chart above to show the ages of those involved in the savings rate. I wonder how startling that would be.

Commodity Prices Can Decline Too Fast

Doug...

Thanks for your input.

This posting was edited fairly heavily. I think I find it a bit puzzling as well. I was creating a continuation posting. It looks as if Seeking Alpha attempted to rewrite it so that this article stood on its own. Understandable. But, not sure it happened as such.

Stop on by the original site and read the original piece. Make sure to click the links I have on the page. It might read a little better.

Thanks again.

Yahoo Finance Now Carries Seeking Alpha Articles

David...

Just wanted to say thanks for all you great work. It's been a pleasure being a blogger on the SeekingAlpha Network.

David Andrew Taylor
dismally.com

Inflation to Follow Oil's Direction

J.P.

Getting off the gold standard was one of the best things this country has ever done. Bernanke outlined and argued for in his book, The Great Depression, how countries that did get off the gold standard faired much better and got out of their economic woes much faster than countries like ours that did not. If we were still on the gold standard, this country would be in an economic trainwreck of its own.

Has Oil Peaked?

Paul....

Thanks for your insight. I agree wholeheartedly that we really have no idea what is being produced and what is left. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price of oil head lower, then the Saudis proclaim that their reserves are dwindling way beyond original expectations. Then, booom. Price heads right back up. They'll play the "Iran-blah-blah-blah" game just as much. Those guys love money, and they are loving the price at these levels.

It's very difficult for us to determine what world supplies are at any one period in time. I think that price is the best determinant for supplies. If price is dwindling, supplies must be on the way up. Demand is a function fo how the economy is really fairing.

Thanks again for your insight.

Analyzing Supply & Demand for Oil

Cross Profit...

Form the conversation I had, there is no real correlation between days supply and pricing. The only time that supplies and days supply factors in, and I quote: "If there is no more supply coming in, then it has relevance".

Our supply is based on what is available in the system. The system is an element of the entrie process. Those stocks that are either in pipelines or onn tankers coming ashore. If there is a shock to our system, then yes, there is a supply disruption. But, what if we saw an absolute supply flatening, meaning the number was exactly the same from week to week, while simultaneously, there is a huge supply shock to the Chinese and Indian system. The Chinese would be bidding up oil regardless of its price to fulfill its demands. We buy our oil from the same exact exchange. This is exactly what is occuring. World supply is disrupted.

Thanks for the comment.

What Really Makes the Dollar Move?

CrossProfit.

I'll get my research team to put something together for you. Give me a couple of days. I can email it to you adn I'll likely put something up on dismally.com as well.

What Really Makes the Dollar Move?

Cross Profit...

Thanks for the "star". You're too kind.

As for the Rand, the bank did good to control the collapse with their interest rate increases. From here, the hard money will be beaten over by the real economic concerns that pushed the rand lower. Once the ball gets rolling with the U.S. dollar pushing higher against the rand, the bank will have to step in and do a succession of interest rate hikes. That will/should help contain the rand's movements. I can see the process playing out over the next few months. It will also be a slower move as opposed to the sell-off we saw just a few weeks ago.

Hope that helps.

David

Gold Takes a Breather -- Buy Into It

Max...

I posted something up on my blog about your concerns regarding me mentioning options positions. Not sure that it will make it onto the Seeking Alpha website. You can find it at dismally.com

Thanks for the comment.

Gold Takes a Breather -- Buy Into It

Saud. I'm just curious about your comment that gold fails to be a hedge or safe haven. It went up in response to the Israel situation. Sounds to me that it in fact is exactly that. Especially since there has not been an escallation, which is specifically what the markets feared.