TheFounder

The Wisdom of Seven Charts, When Emotion Is Detached

Very interesting article. Indeed primary trends do not change over night. But this moment in time presents a rather unique dillema. Many believe that the current market action is technical, temporary and government driven. And joining the herd now seems too late to the party. On the other hand, going counter trend now means timing the market. Seems like a lose lose situation.

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

For example, some of them will rent a B class property for $700-1000 per month. Some will rent a C class for $300-600 per month. Some will stay as you indicate.


On Nov 26 08:31 AM bartpr wrote:

> to davewmart. when all these buyers mail back their keys where will they then go. i bet for those who can make payments it is cheaper to stay than try and find the same dwelling and then lose their credit standing.

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

The black swan term is devaluating and people use it now for every surprise. A black swan is not the same as a surprise, even a rare one. It is more like something never seen before and with a dramatic effect.

Dubai is not a black swan. Even Lehman was not, given its 30:1 levereged balance sheet.

Signs of Extreme Complacency in the Market

This is great information, and in my view quite a reliable indicator. As we know the market causes maximum losses to the maximum number of players. So a sell offf when people are bullish makes much sense. Would be interesting to view this chart over a longer period of time.

S&P Rally on Track for Year's End

This is at the top 10 most bizzare economic articles I have ever read. The basic message is the following: the market is drawing a streight line up, and so it will continue. Why? Because!!

Is it that easy to write trading and stock market articles?

The author may be correct, off course. If the market indeed goes up, given its current 1110 level, i think its a safe bet to say it will be between 1130 and 1190.

Let me guess: if he is correct, he will remind us. If not, we will have bigger issues than to remind him.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

You are correct at 3% real GDP growth. My point was that even if real GDP is at 0-1% for 3-5 years (a great recession or depression) then the current levels can be supported with high inflation numbers. This is where the wise men who trade stocks differ from the wise men who trade bonds, as the latter do not expect high inflation.


On Nov 20 08:26 AM BSD77 wrote:

> Nope, they believe that nominal GDP growth will be in that range
> (5y 11% or 7,6% 7 years). So, if we use a historical long- term real
> GDP growth (app. 3%) as a good measure for these next couple of years,
> they believe that inflation will be 4,6% to 8% in that period. Unless,
> ofcourse, the stock market continues it's way down.

Golden Shorting Opportunity, if Stocks Pull Back

Various powerful groups of buyers are pushing gold prices up. Countries, central banks, traders, gold bugs, jewlery, India, industries.

There will be a correction, in which I will but more gold.

Dow Theory: The Transport Triple Top Threat

More and more indicators support this theory with every day that passes.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

It can also be argued that since the market is the sum of all the wisdom of all the wise men (and even better - the wise women), then at current levels, the wise men and women believe that inflation will be at 8-12% for 5-7 years.

Why You Can't Short This Market: The Expectation Ratio

The author suggests that you can't short the market because it may continue its way up. But he is convinced at some point it will go down again. What is the point in trying to guess the exact top point of the market? why not just start to establish a short position and add to it on new tops?

Historical Bull Market Returns, Duration Suggest More Upside for the Current Rally

Those statistics tells me nothing, except that we are probably closer to the top of the rally than to the bottom.

The Problem with Being Wealthy

Richard,

Your 2 conditions of 0.5% amd 0.5% seem a bit overly restrictive. Especially th second one concerning the daily volume.

What is the negative of owning 1-2% of the fund and 10% of the average daily volume? does it not mean that one can exit the position in appx 1 hour if neded?

Applying 2% and 10% would multiply the possibilities by many times, I believe.

Big Bear Rosenberg and the Great Rally

I would have to agree with David on all counts.

Weekly Street Sentiment: You Can't Improve on Perfection

The important technical points to watch in the sp are 1120 and 1210 which are the 50% and 62% corrections, respectively, from the drop to 666. In this case the 50% point is even more important because it is also close to the long term bear market top resistance line.

Bad News Bears Battle Break Neck Bounce

How about earnings of $60 with a P/E of 15? or perhaps, $55 with a P/E of 12? We shall see.