Earnings Push Market To Cusp Of Breakout [View article]
This is simply a time window in which the market chooses to ignore the situation in EU. There has been a time like that in 1Q2012. But once attention turns back to the EU, the market can quickly visit the 200 day MA again or even go lower.
In your previous articles you suggested that we have not seen yet the final bottom of this summer, which I tend to agree with. I also think the Fed will not launch QE3 when the market is in the mid 1300's.
Fed Has Economic, Political Cover To Launch Bullish QE3 [View article]
I think big trouble is coming from EU soon, and the FED will wait with any QE3 until the next significant market decline (whch may not be a long wait).
Bank Of America: A Valuation Call, Buying The Pullback [View article]
A well run bank in a decent economy should be trading at 1.5X BV and make at least 10% return on capital. So assuming we get a decent economy at some point, we should see the stock back at $25-35 level. If the bank just stay alive, it should hit $15, and this is just for beeing there.
Teva Pharmaceutical: Market Failing To Account For A Strong History Of Returns [View article]
No analysis of TEVA could be complete without addressing the possible loss of its lead innovative drug for MS, Copaxone, which accounts for appx a third of the profits. They may lose Copaxone revenues in coming years to generic competition. The market is assuming that TEVA may lose $1.60 of Copaxone profit to generics and therefore the anticipated earnings in 2012 will be appx $4 per share. However, on the other hand, the market is not fully pricing the potential of the Cephalon innovative drug pipeline which in part will make up for the loss of Copaxone revenues. The Copaxone competition may come later than expected. All those dynamics make it very hard, even for analysts or management to project revenues and earnings forward. With all that said, in general I agree with the author that Teva is grossly undervalued and should see $55 soon.
The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
LOL.....too ambitious. You can only hope to collect so much from people who can't do math. It is a large segment of the population, I admit, but not large enough to carry all the burden.
Don't Shrug Off Similarities To The Past 2 Aprils [View article]
Very nice analysis. It is easy to agree that some form of market correction is in order starting in 2Q12. The hard part is whether to manage for a 5-10% correction or to something more significant.
This Time Is No Different Than Before [View article]
This time is indeed no different in that the world will not collapse because of Greece Italy and Spain and the markets will continue after a painful correction of between 20% and 50%. We know that already. I believe at this stage of the game most readers here are particularly interested in whether it will end at the 20% already seen or the 50% which is in question.
3 Reasons to Keep an Eye on Real Estate ETFs [View article]
I have to disagree with the author. House price levels in most major areas are still 20-40% above their long term price trend line. Millions of houses under or about to enter foreclosure. Unemployment high and growing.
Signs of Extreme Complacency in the Market [View article]
This is great information, and in my view quite a reliable indicator. As we know the market causes maximum losses to the maximum number of players. So a sell offf when people are bullish makes much sense. Would be interesting to view this chart over a longer period of time.
I like this analysis. It is rational and interesting. Not sure I agree with it fully.
The FED is trying, will all of its power, to "convert" a great depression, or a W shaped recession, into growth and inflation, by printing money. The thought is that several years of inflation, even high inflation, are far better than a depression. Some people, such as real estate owners, especially those with high mortgages, actually stand to gain from inflation.
If the FED succeeds, we may see the stock market declining in "real dollar' terms by remaining at the current levels, while the $US weakens against foreign currencies, and the cost of living soars.
Some may argue that this scenario is the same as a stock market decline, which may be correct, but we don't necessarily need to see the 600's again as the author suggests.
It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas [View article]
Agree with gold and the "black swan" option stategy but not with bonds. Why purchase bonds at these levels? the only rason I can come up with is expecttions for severe deflation and/or a depression.
Earnings Push Market To Cusp Of Breakout [View article]
In your previous articles you suggested that we have not seen yet the final bottom of this summer, which I tend to agree with. I also think the Fed will not launch QE3 when the market is in the mid 1300's.
Fed Has Economic, Political Cover To Launch Bullish QE3 [View article]
And You Thought The Correlation Bubble Popped [View article]
Bank Of America: A Valuation Call, Buying The Pullback [View article]
Teva Pharmaceutical: Market Failing To Account For A Strong History Of Returns [View article]
The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
Don't Shrug Off Similarities To The Past 2 Aprils [View article]
This Time Is No Different Than Before [View article]
Can't Get It Straight: Is It Dow 20,000 Or 2,000 [View article]
Stocks Set to Decline in 2010 - Morgan Stanley [View article]
3 Reasons to Keep an Eye on Real Estate ETFs [View article]
Signs of Extreme Complacency in the Market [View article]
The Most Likely Market Scenario [View article]
The FED is trying, will all of its power, to "convert" a great depression, or a W shaped recession, into growth and inflation, by printing money. The thought is that several years of inflation, even high inflation, are far better than a depression. Some people, such as real estate owners, especially those with high mortgages, actually stand to gain from inflation.
If the FED succeeds, we may see the stock market declining in "real dollar' terms by remaining at the current levels, while the $US weakens against foreign currencies, and the cost of living soars.
Some may argue that this scenario is the same as a stock market decline, which may be correct, but we don't necessarily need to see the 600's again as the author suggests.
In this case gold will increase as well.
It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas [View article]
Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher [View article]